After a whirlwind spring training, the 2022 MLB season is upon us. This is a week for previews and forecasts, debuts and anticipation. It’s a week for hope.
The realities of baseball being what they are, hope doesn’t mean the same thing for the fans of all 30 teams. Not every team carries championship expectations. Aspirations, yes, but not expectations. After all, if you’re a fan of a team that lost more than 100 games last season, expecting a title run in a few months is asking a lot.
Still, it’s April, so let’s focus more on the aspirations than the expectations, while giving a nod to both. As we’ve done in recent years, I’m going to present my final preseason team forecasts with the emphasis on the ultimate goal: a World Series crown. Teams have been divided into five tiers based on their probability of being the last club standing come autumn.
Each team’s power rating is a measure of roster strength, expressed in terms of wins per 162 games. The title odds are determined with those power ratings used as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the season to come. Some teams’ paths (and schedules) are more difficult than others, so the order of teams by title probability does not perfectly reflect their ranking by power rating.
I’ve also listed an “ETA” for each team’s title chances, which is simply an estimate determined by a team’s 2022 title tier. All teams in the same tier have the same ETA.
In addition to the data, I’ve offered a little commentary to speak to the aspirational. What would it take for that team to win it all this season? For some clubs, it’s going to sound pie-eyed, but that’s OK. Spring is the time for that. Besides, 26 of the 30 teams won at least one of the 10,000 simulations. For those 26 teams, we’re saying there’s a chance. For the others, we’re going to say there’s a chance anyway.
TIER 1: THEIR TIME IS NOW
Teams in this group are the front-runners and should be all-in trying to win the 2022 World Series.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Power rating: 100
2022 title odds: 21.9% (won 2,192 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: The Dodgers ought to be on a separate tier, but the reality of the baseball postseason is that you really can’t declare any one team as a prohibitive favorite to win it all. What we can say about the Dodgers is that they look like a near slam-dunk to appear once again in the postseason, as they have each season since 2013. Once there, the Dodgers need to have enough starting pitchers still putting up quality innings to keep the staff from running out of juice, as it did during last season’s NLCS loss to Atlanta.
Toronto Blue Jays
Power rating: 96.2
2022 title odds: 13% (won 1,301 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: The Blue Jays look terrific in the preseason numbers. Perhaps the most important factor for Toronto’s chances to turn those forecasts into reality is the collective success of the bullpen. If manager Charlie Montoyo can find a consistent pecking order for the late innings, Toronto has the high-octane offense and elite rotation to win an awful lot of games. They don’t need to have baseball’s best bullpen. They do need a bullpen that, at the very least, doesn’t begin to attract a lot of attention for all the wrong reasons.
Houston Astros
Power rating: 92.4
2022 title odds: 9.7% (won 968 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: Houston figures to have a decent buffer in its quest to repeat in the AL West, though the races for the No. 2 seeds in both leagues take on added importance due to the extended playoff format. Either way, once the Astros get to the playoffs their chances to be the last team standing would be greatly enhanced if, this time around, manager Dusty Baker has a core of three starting pitchers he can use to bring the overall staff into focus. Along those lines, the ceiling for the Astros would most obviously be reached if Justin Verlander is back to being the kind of rotation ace he has been his entire career.
Atlanta Braves
Power rating: 93.8
2022 title odds: 9.3% (won 926 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: Let’s sidestep any Matt Olson versus Freddie Freeman observations here and point out something that probably can’t be mentioned often enough: The Braves won the World Series last fall without Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna or Mike Soroka playing an inning of the postseason. With Ozuna back and the other two likely to return as the season progresses, along with rehabbing All-Star reliever Kirby Yates, the Braves have a chance to improve as the season goes along without outside acquisitions. Since the Braves figure to be very good from the season’s outset, if this gradual ramping up occurs, it’s not foolish to think Atlanta could enter the postseason as co-favorites with the Dodgers.
New York Yankees
Power rating: 93.9
2022 title odds: 9% (won 900 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: You can’t exactly project good health for the Yankees, given their recent track record and the age of some of their key contributors. Still, there is a version of this roster where all of the big guns remain mostly healthy and the Yankees just blow the doors off the rest of the American League. The key group for this is the rotation, and that’s more of an observation about October than April through September. If the Yankees can get into the postseason with a rotation trio of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Jameson Taillon (or Deivi Garcia or Jordan Montgomery) healthy and firing on all cylinders, Aaron Boone can line up his powerful bullpen as he sees fit — and, then, look out.
Milwaukee Brewers
Power rating: 92
2022 title odds: 7.7% (won 774 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: The Brewers should be a run-prevention juggernaut. For Milwaukee to turn that into a title, they’ll need to score against postseason pitching. Getting Christian Yelich right is a prerequisite for that but even then, the Brewers could use breakouts from elsewhere. Among the candidates to provide that boost in firepower are Keston Hiura and Tyrone Taylor.
Chicago White Sox
Power rating: 90.3
2022 title odds: 7.5% (won 748 of 10,000 simulations)
How it happens this year: When last season began, the White Sox rotation figured to be headed up by veterans Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel. The latter had a topsy-turvy season, but Lynn certainly held up his end of the bargain. However, the White Sox can vault to the top of the American League if those two end up as luxuries by the time we hit the stretch run and the rotation is instead spearheaded by three younger pitchers: Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. If that trio emerges as a legit big three during 2022, this will be a special season on the South Side.
TIER 2: THEIR TIME COULD BE NOW
Teams in this group don’t project to land a top-two seed in their leagues but could easily end up in the top tier by season’s end.
San Diego Padres
Power rating: 89.9
2022 title odds: 4.7% (won 468 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: It goes without saying that a prerequisite to the Padres having the season everyone thought they’d have last season is better health. They aren’t off to a great start in that regard. Assuming Fernando Tatis Jr. gets back in short order and stays healthy, we’ll get to see if Bob Melvin can become the latest veteran manager to take over a talented club and lead it to the title in his first season. Just over the past three-plus decades, Lou Piniella, Joe Torre, Terry Francona, Jack McKeon and Jim Leyland have all done it. Can a manager still really make that much of a difference? Let’s find out.
Philadelphia Phillies
Power rating: 89.7
2022 title odds: 4.4% (won 443 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: There are familiar names all over the Phillies’ bullpen depth chart: Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Hand, Jose Alvarado, Sam Coonrod, Ryan Sherriff. And still, it’s up in the air whether this crew can coalesce into a relief staff worthy of a roster with loads of offensive firepower and a terrific starting rotation. But if this group comes together for Joe Girardi, ending their postseason drought could be just the first step this year’s Phillies take.
Boston Red Sox
Power rating: 87.7
2022 title odds: 2.8% (won 281 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: The Red Sox can’t afford to get off to a terrible start, not in a tough American League landscape and in a division where there are four clubs that are popular picks to make the playoffs. Still, if this becomes a title-winning kind of season, the trajectory of that journey could be one of treading water early and then gradually gathering momentum as the team improves: Chris Sale and James Paxton join the rotation; Triston Casas and Jarren Duran force their way onto the roster; roles on the big-league roster evolve as the new talent is worked in; and, by the time October arrives, the Red Sox are just hitting their full stride.
New York Mets
Power rating: 87.8
2022 title odds: 2.7% (won 267 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: Let’s try to look past the Mets’ attention-grabbing payroll and assume Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer eventually become the one-two punch that looks so devastating on paper. The Mets have enough talent to squeeze into a six-team NL playoff field — even with deGrom out and even if Scherzer’s hamstring injury becomes something a little more serious — and an elite manager in Buck Showalter to steer them through rough terrain. The key is to have that pair of aces dealing fire by the time October arrives. That is how these Mets become special.
Tampa Bay Rays
Power rating: 86.2
2022 title odds: 2% (won 202 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: The Rays won 90 games in 2018 (but missed the postseason) and have made the playoffs in each season since. Of the most-commonly used regulars in the lineup, rotation and bullpen from 2018, only Kevin Kiermaier remains on the roster. And even he’s been the subject of trade chatter. That’s how fast things change for the Rays, who get it done every season with different players and different roster-building strategies. However, the ascension of Wander Franco last season, and the long-term contract he subsequently signed, give this franchise a rare anchor amid the relentless churn. The Rays will be the Rays, but if they get over that last hurdle at the end of October, you have to think Franco will be the one at the center of it.
San Francisco Giants
Power rating: 84.9
2022 title odds: 1.4% (won 137 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: Can you really call it threading a needle when a team wins 107 games? Right or wrong, that’s what the Giants’ historic 2021 season felt like, and it feels like for San Francisco to even approach that level of success once again, it will have to repeat something that is probably not repeatable. So how does the title happen this fall? A half-season of beating the projections once again, if not to the degree of last year. And then the Giants splurge in the midseason trade bazaar.
TIER 3: IN … BUT NOT ALL-IN
The odds look stacked against these teams in terms of immediate title contention, but it’s not impossible. Still, these clubs should approach the season with a longer-term mindset.
Los Angeles Angels
Power rating: 82
2022 title odds: 1.1% (won 111 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: Health. More than any other team, that most essential of factors applies to the Angels. Mike Trout plays in 145 or more games. Shohei Ohtani matches last season’s figures for innings and plate appearances. Anthony Rendon gets back to being one of the game’s top third basemen. The rotation largely avoids the injured list. The Angels have stars, but a roster that lacks depth has to have those stars available from start to finish.
Seattle Mariners
Power rating: 81.7
2022 title odds: 0.8% (won 84 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: As wonderful as it is that Julio Rodriguez earned his way onto the Mariners’ Opening Day roster, let’s not put Seattle’s hopes for ending its long playoff drought on his young (and powerful) shoulders. If Seattle breaks out as a special club, it’s going to be because its starting rotation becomes one of baseball’s elite groups. With reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray joining the group over the winter, it’s not hard to imagine this happening. Steady Marco Gonzales is back, as is breakout veteran Chris Flexen. Impressive rookie Logan Gilbert is entering his first full season. And then it gets even more exciting, with filthy rookie Matt Brash making the roster and top prospect George Kirby knocking on the door.
Minnesota Twins
Power rating: 79.9
2022 title odds: 0.7% (won 72 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: With a vengeance. Does any lineup in the majors have more players with something to prove? For the returnees, there is the motivation to prove last season’s debacle was a fluke. Gary Sanchez has an entire metropolis he wants to prove wrong. Carlos Correa has millions and millions of reasons to post an MVP-level campaign. Byron Buxton has to show that his MVP-esque talent can be plied for a full healthy season. The Twins have a roster full of talent, experience … and motivation. Turning this season into a revenge tour seems like a pretty neat storyline for Minnesota, and a recipe to end that long playoff losing streak.
St. Louis Cardinals
Power rating: 80.2
2022 title odds: 0.5% (won 53 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: Channeling the 1983 Phillies. No, really. Youth dominates today’s baseball and that’s fine. The game has likely never seen so many dynamically talented, skilled and very young players as right now. But the Cardinals score one for the veterans. With Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols entering their final seasons for sure, and likely to be joined by Adam Wainwright, the Redbirds can prove that this isn’t simply a nostalgia tour. For that, they need only to look at the title-winning Phillies from 39 years ago, who put former Reds Pete Rose, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez into key roles and won the NL pennant. Obviously Pujols in particular isn’t going to carry the Cardinals in 2022, but their last dance can be a rallying point for the rest of the clubhouse.
Miami Marlins
Power rating: 79.2
2022 title odds: 0.2% (won 15 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2023
How it happens this year: The best rotation in baseball. The Marlins don’t project to have the best rotation, but with such a deep group of high-upside young starters who are well into the process of acclimating to the big leagues, no club’s rotation might have the collective ceiling of the Marlins’ starters. An average lineup, an above-average defense, an average bullpen … and the best rotation in the game. For the Marlins to surprise everybody, that’s what their season will look like. And it will inspire a cottage industry of comparisons to the 2003 champion Marlins.
TIER 4: WAIT ‘TIL 2024
These teams are mostly recent rebuilders that have moved toward contention status and might be just a move or two away from climbing up in the tiers.
Cincinnati Reds
Power rating: 76.8
2022 title odds: 0.1% (won 14 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: We’re down to Tier 4, and at this point, we really have to remind ourselves we’re trying to chart an aspirational course for every team to end up in a dog pile after clinching the World Series a few months from now. So, the descriptions are going to get a little more fantastical. After all of the negativity around Cincinnati’s payroll-shedding offseason, perhaps we start with a general motivation for those remaining on the Reds to make all of their critics eat crow. Maybe that’s a start. The Reds have at least excited their fans by including pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the season-opening roster. They’d play a part as well. And, finally, the Reds would need to get off to a strong start to discourage further shedding of quality veteran talent, especially in a rotation headed by Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.
Cleveland Guardians
Power rating: 75.8
2022 title odds: 0.1% (won 14 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: The Guardians are the type of team that could be a feared postseason opponent, even if they ended up playing into October only because they won 82 games and snagged the AL’s sixth playoff slot. Because once there, Cleveland could future a top one-two rotation punch (Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac) and a bullpen that, in its healthy form, has the arms to replicate what the Braves did last season. As for those 82 wins? Well, in this year’s AL, you better play for at least 87. But you’ve got skipper Terry Francona in the dugout, and that’s a good start.
Chicago Cubs
Power rating: 73.9
2022 title odds: 0.1% (won 10 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: Does history really run in cycles? The Cubs hope so, because there has been a player named Suzuki who came over from Japan during the prime of his career and then won an MVP award as a rookie. The Cubs don’t have a ton of high-upside players on their roster, at least at the season’s outset. But if Seiya makes as successful a transition to MLB as Ichiro did 21 years ago, maybe that lifts an overachieving roster and convinces the front office to make a trade splash during the season.
Detroit Tigers
Power rating: 74.8
2022 title odds: 0.1% (won 9 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: Collective maturation. Sure, we’re talking about the young rotation behind newly acquired veteran Eduardo Rodriguez. The Tigers will go as far as Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal will take them. And, sure, we’re talking about big debut seasons from Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. But we’re also talking about Javier Baez who, for all he’s accomplished, has never embraced the gospel of plate discipline. Perhaps Detroit manager A.J. Hinch is the one to finally make Javy see the light … and the strike zone.
Kansas City Royals
Power rating: 70.8
2022 title odds: 0.1% (won 6 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: Basically, the Royals need every player (or most of them) on their opening roster to do what seems reasonable for them to do … someday. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a surefire MVP candidate. But can he approach that level right away? The young starters, as a group, should be an organizational strength for years to come. But can Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar et al hit their stride over the next few months? And Adalberto Mondesi … sigh. Since 2018, he has averaged 21 homers, 94 runs, 83 RBIs and 68 steals per 162 games. But he has averaged just 68 games per season. How about he does it for at least 130?
Washington Nationals
Power rating: 70.8
2022 title odds: 0% (won 2 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: Not to be overly un-analytical about it, but the Nationals’ opening roster just doesn’t look very good. But here’s the shock-the-world progression: Juan Soto puts up 1956 Mickey Mantle numbers. Nelson Cruz, hitting behind him, continues to defy the realities of time. Josh Bell has a resurgent season. Patrick Corbin bounces back in a rotation that treads water until Stephen Strasburg gets ramped up to something close to full speed. Then, with the Nats in the thick of the expanded playoff race, they make a key trade splash — Cedric Mullins, somehow, just to irresponsibly throw a name out there. Hey, we’re in Tier 4. But the Soto part of this really could happen.
Texas Rangers
Power rating: 69.8
2022 title odds: 0% (won 1 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2024
How it happens this year: Let’s assume a top-10 offense led by offseason acquisitions Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. You can’t really assume that, but let’s assume it. If the Rangers’ starting pitchers all hit the upper end of their probability curves, it can be a passable group, at least in terms of per-inning quality. Quantity from that group does not look likely. So for that part of the equation to come together, the bullpen would need to be more than deep and more than reliable. It would need to be really good. Looking at the depth chart and the projections doesn’t inspire optimism. But bullpens are hard to project.
TIER 5: THREE YEARS AWAY … AT LEAST
There is work to be done, probably too much to hope for a serious run either this season or in the next couple.
Colorado Rockies
Power rating: 67.9
2022 title odds: 0% (won 1 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2025
How it happens this year: The starters revert to their top-five performance of 2017, 2018 and 2020. That’s gotta happen. The bullpen posts a decent high-leverage performance behind veterans Alex Colome and Daniel Bard. The defense is good, in both the infield and the outfield. Then the offense enjoys a home run binge led by new face of the franchise Kris Bryant. Bryant’s 45 or so blasts lead the way, but Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, C.J. Cron, Brendan Rodgers and Randal Grichuk all approach 30. Then maybe the sixth seed becomes obtainable.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Power rating: 66.6
2022 title odds: 0% (won 1 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2025
How it happens this year: Mitch Keller emerges as a Cy Young candidate on the boost provided by his new slider. Ke’Bryan Hayes makes The Leap. Oneil Cruz bashes 30 homers and wins NL Rookie of the Year. The rest of the roster is close enough to league average that when a number of the NL’s preseason contenders face-plant, the Bucs’ 81 wins get them into the playoffs. And the fans come back to PNC Park, teasing a possible baseball renaissance in one of the sport’s best venues. What’s the 2022 version of “We Are Family”?
Arizona Diamondbacks
Power rating: 68
2022 title odds: 0% (won 0 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2025
How it happens this year: First off, you’ll notice that while Arizona has a better power rating than Pittsburgh or Colorado, the Diamondbacks didn’t win any of the simulations, while those other clubs each won one. Folks, that is what you call the sheer randomness of a cold, indifferent universe. Anyway, the D-backs would need most everyone from the group of wild-card hopefuls (Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, Marlins, Padres) to falter. They’d need the lineup to overachieve, as it did back in 2019. They’d need the veteran bullpen to coalesce into a top group to support a veteran but shallow rotation. Finally, they’d need to get Madison Bumgarner into the October bracket, and then let him roll.
Oakland Athletics
Power rating: 66.8
2022 title odds: 0% (won 0 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2025
How it happens this year: You have to give the A’s credit in one regard. It’s really not that easy to wreck a team’s baseline so drastically from one Opening Day to the next, especially when the season in between those dates yielded a winning record and playoff contention. Maybe … the A’s hired the next Jonah Hill, who discovered a formula for replacing each of the wins Oakland traded away?
Baltimore Orioles
Power rating: 60.2
2022 title odds: 0% (won 0 of 10,000 simulations)
ETA: 2025
How it happens this year: What was it that sorcerer lady said to Daenerys Targaryen? When the sun rises in the West and sets in the East. When the seas go dry and the mountains blow in the wind like leaves. In other words, we’re saying the Orioles have a chance.
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