What has changed in our latest NBA mock draft since the start of the college basketball season?
The college season truly got going with a slew of tournaments last week, pitting many of the draft’s top prospects against each other in neutral court settings. The sample size is still small and quite a bit will change over the next seven months, but we finally have some real data, film and in-person observations to help project this class with more confidence.
This time of year, there’s a fine line between anchoring to priors and absorbing and reacting to new information. We’re a long way from reaching definitive conclusions, but at this point there are clearly prospects who are excelling and elevating their standing, while others have stagnated or are struggling to transition to the college game. There’s still a lot more information to glean from, which December and the start of conference play will hopefully provide.
Here are some of the most notable things I observed from an NBA draft standpoint in November along with an updated mock:
First round
1. Detroit Pistons
Victor Wembanyama | Metropolitans 92 | PF/C | Age: 18.9
2. San Antonio Spurs
Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | PG | Age: 18.8
3. Orlando Magic
Amen Thompson | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 19.8
4. Houston Rockets
Nick Smith Jr. | Arkansas | PG/SG | Age: 18.6
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
Ausar Thompson | Overtime Elite | SG/SF | Age: 19.8
6. Charlotte Hornets (to Atlanta if 17-30)
Cam Whitmore | Villanova | SF/PF | Age: 18.3
7. New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers)
Brandon Miller | Alabama | SF | Age: 20.0
8. New York Knicks
Jarace Walker | Houston | PF | Age: 19.2
9. Indiana Pacers
Cason Wallace | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 19.0
10. Orlando Magic
Keyonte George | Baylor | SG | Age: 19.0
11. Portland Trail Blazers
Anthony Black | Arkansas | PG/SG | Age: 18.8
12. Washington Wizards
Kel’el Ware | Oregon | C | Age: 18.6
13. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota Timberwolves)
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.0
14. Sacramento Kings
Jett Howard | Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.2
15. LA Clippers
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | PF | Age: 19.1
16. Miami Heat
Dariq Whitehead | Duke | SG/SF | Age: 18.1
17. Brooklyn Nets
Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 19.9
18. Utah Jazz
Gradey Dick | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 19.0
19. Toronto Raptors
Rayan Rupert | New Zealand Breakers | SG/SF | Age: 18.3
20. Atlanta Hawks
Gregory Jackson II | South Carolina | PF/C | Age: 17.9
21. New York Knicks (via Dallas Mavericks)
Dereck Lively II | Duke | C | Age: 18.7
22. Golden State Warriors
Sidy Cissoko | G League Ignite | SG/SF | Age: 18.6
23. Los Angeles Lakers (via New Orleans Pelicans)
Julian Phillips | Tennessee | SF | Age: 19.0
24. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver Nuggets)
Coleman Hawkins | Illinois | PF | Age: 20.9
25. Memphis Grizzlies
James Nnaji | Barcelona | C | Age: 18.2
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland Cavaliers)
Marcus Sasser | Houston | PG/SG | Age: 22.1
27. Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks)
Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | SG/SF | Age: 22.3
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia 76ers)
Reece Beekman | Virginia | PG | Age: 21.1
29. Phoenix Suns
Nikola Durisic | Mega MIS | SG/SF | Age: 18.7
30. Indiana Pacers (via Boston Celtics)
Leonard Miller | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 19.0
Second round
31. Detroit Pistons
J.J. Starling | Notre Dame | SG | Age: 18.5
32. San Antonio Spurs
Ousmane Ndiaye | Baskonia | PF/C | Age: 18.6
33. Orlando Magic
Kris Murray | Iowa | PF | Age: 22.2
34. Boston Celtics (via Houston Rockets)
Ricky Council IV | Arkansas | SG/SF | Age: 21.3
35. Oklahoma City Thunder
Terrance Arceneaux | Houston | SF | Age: 19.0
36. Philadelphia 76ers (via Charlotte Hornets)
Colby Jones | Xavier | SF | Age: 20.5
37. Los Angeles Lakers
Jordan Hawkins | Connecticut | SG | Age: 20.5
38. Minnesota Timberwolves (via New York Knicks)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | SF | Age: 21.7
39. San Antonio Spurs (via Indiana Pacers)
Julian Strawther | Gonzaga | SF | Age: 20.6
40. Los Angeles Lakers (via Chicago Bulls)
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 19.6
41. Boston Celtics (via Portland Trail Blazers)
Jordan Walsh | Arkansas | SF/PF | Age: 18.5
42. Charlotte Hornets (via Washington Wizards)
Arthur Kaluma | Creighton | PF | Age: 20.5
43. Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota Timberwolves)
Andre Jackson | Connecticut | SG/SF | Age: 21.0
44. Sacramento Kings
Amari Bailey | UCLA | PG | Age: 18.7
45. LA Clippers
Emoni Bates | Eastern Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 18.8
46. Indiana Pacers (via Miami Heat)
Oscar Tshiebwe | Kentucky | C | Age: 23.0
47. Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets)
Caleb Love | North Carolina | SG | Age: 21.1
48. Charlotte Hornets (via Utah Jazz)
Maxwell Lewis | Pepperdine | SG/SF | Age: 20.3
49. Toronto Raptors
Ryan Kalkbrenner | Creighton | C | Age: 20.7
50. Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks)
Trevon Brazile | Arkansas | PF | Age: 19.8
51. Denver Nuggets (via Dallas Mavericks)
Mouhamed Gueye | Washington State | PF/C | Age: 20.0
52. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Golden State Warriors)
Matthew Murrell | Mississippi | SG | Age: 20.9
53. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans)
Kevin McCullar Jr. | Kansas | SF | Age: 21.7
54. Memphis Grizzlies
Juan Nunez | Ratiopharm Ulm | PG | Age: 18.7
55. Milwaukee Bucks (via Cleveland Cavaliers)
Jalen Wilson | Kansas | SF/PF | Age: 22.0
56. Milwaukee Bucks
Josiah-Jordan James | Tennessee | SG | Age: 22.2
57. Phoenix Suns
Mojave King | G League Ignite | SG | Age: 20.4
58. Boston Celtics
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 20.5
Note: The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers forfeited a 2023 second-round draft pick.
Freshman Brandon Miller’s ascent at Alabama
Miller, the No. 1 scorer in college basketball among freshmen, showed what makes him unique at the PK85 tournament as a 6-foot-9 guard with dynamic shot-making ability, a strong feel for the game and defensive versatility. Miller went 9-for-21 from beyond the arc in Portland for Alabama while rebounding prolifically, authoring several impressive blocks and getting to the free throw line more than five times per game. NBA scouts scour the globe for oversized wings with length who can handle and pass with either hand, play with energy on defense and make shots in a variety of ways, giving him a very high floor as a prospect.
On the downside, Miller lacks explosiveness creating off the dribble and struggled to generate high-percentage offense for himself inside the arc, going a dismal 8-for-34 (24%) from 2-point range and having his shot blocked far more than you’d expect at his size. Just how much of a half-court creator he projects to be in the NBA is something scouts are pondering, which will help determine if he can eventually threaten to crack the top five of this draft or ends up being more of a mid- or late-lottery-caliber prospect.
Being a sophomore age-wise, having just turned 20, is something to consider as well. The fact that Miller has significantly ramped up his intensity defensively and is playing an unselfish brand of basketball is promising, and if he can continue to make strides as a playmaker operating out of pick-and-roll and isolation situations, he’ll be well positioned come June.
Anthony Black breaks out in Maui
Black started the season slowly, posting just 18 points on 18 shots in three games, but hit his stride in a major way in Maui, averaging 22 points, five rebounds and four assists while helping Arkansas to a 2-1 record. Beyond the numbers, it was Black’s ability to act as his team’s full-time engine that impressed the most, showing a spectacular combination of pace, aggressiveness, physicality, creativity and intelligence operating out of pick-and-roll that you rarely see from a 6-7 guard. Black got inside the paint almost whenever he wanted and made great decisions with the ball, using and rejecting screens, changing speeds with outstanding ball-handling ability, either to finish through contact himself or find teammates on the move. On top of that, he brought his typical energy and versatility making plays all over the floor defensively and crashing the glass instinctually on both ends with his underrated explosiveness.
Scouts have always loved the way Black impacts winning with all the little things he does on both ends of the floor, but the fact that he was able to shoulder such a heavy on-ball role and be effective at this level of competition as a freshman puts him in a different tier of prospect relative to where he started the year. Black’s ability to keep defenses honest when the ball isn’t in his hands is something to monitor (he’s shooting a respectable 33% for 3), as is how well his newfound scoring aggressiveness translates to SEC play, but he’s knocking on the door of the top-10 right now and is in a great position to continue to rise.
The rise of Reece Beekman
Virginia is off to a 6-0 start and No. 3 ranking in the AP Top 25 in no small part due to potential All-American Beekman and his two-way play.
The 6-3 junior is one of the best defenders in college and is shouldering a much bigger offensive load this season for a team ranked No. 5 in offensive efficiency. Beekman has played his best basketball in road/neutral court wins over Michigan, Illinois and Baylor, averaging 15 points and six assists per game against strong competition, demonstrating impressive patience operating out of pick-and-roll and finding teammates unselfishly out of their motion offense. While still not the most advanced shot creator (42% 2P%) or the most explosive driver separating from a standstill, Beekman has shown improvement probing out of ball screens, making pocket passes or accelerating and finishing with craft and toughness around the basket.
His 7.5 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted ranks second among college prospects in our top 100. Despite shooting 57% for 3 this season, Beekman still has something to prove with his at-times awkward mechanics after entering his junior campaign a career 30% from beyond the arc and taking just 14 attempts this season through six games.
Even if Beekman’s offensive arsenal has some questions, the way he defends gives him a very high floor and should allow him to carve out a niche early in his NBA career. He helped in Virginia’s win over Michigan by sniffing out two huge steals in the final minutes, rotating off the ball instinctually, and has proved to be an absolute menace on the ball as well as sliding his feet and containing players bigger and smaller than him throughout his college career.
After missing the NCAA tournament last season, Virginia looks like the best team in the ACC and a Final Four candidate. Beekman’s already cemented himself as a first-round candidate and can continue to help his draft stock the rest of the season if he can continue to create efficient offense for himself and others.
Which version of Illinois’ prospects should we expect?
NBA scouts want to know which version of Terrence Shannon Jr. they can expect to see the rest of the season — the one who posted 29 points, 10 rebounds and three assists in a win against UCLA or the one who posted nine points, six assists, six turnovers and fell apart down the stretch in a loss to Virginia two days later? Teams have wanted to fall in love with Shannon’s size, frame, open-court explosiveness and defensive potential since his 2019 freshman season at Texas Tech. Now in his fourth season, Shannon seems to have made tangible strides with his perimeter shooting, decision-making and defensive consistency, but he still has a lot to prove entering Big Ten play. Two huge games this week at Maryland and then versus No. 2 Texas in the Jimmy V Classic will give us a lot more insight into just how much we can buy into Shannon as a first-round prospect moving forward.
Much of the same can be said about Shannon’s teammate Coleman Hawkins. The 6-10 junior has an ideal NBA power forward profile with the mobility he displays, his versatility as a passer, shooter and defender, and the instincts he displays as a shot-blocker. He posted a triple-double — 15 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists — this week against Syracuse, but he has also had some real duds (going scoreless with six turnovers in 22 minutes against Lindenwood the game before). Hawkins did some real eye-opening things in Illinois’ two toughest games thus far against UCLA and Virginia, dishing out 10 assists, posting five blocks and sliding all over the floor on both ends. Can he take the next step with his toughness, productivity and consistency the rest of the season and solidify himself as a first-round pick?
Ausar Thompson’s hot shooting
While most NBA eyes have been planted firmly on the opening weeks of college basketball, scouts are still closely monitoring the progress of non-NCAA prospects. One notable development has been the highly efficient month of November that Ausar Thompson had at Overtime Elite, averaging 18.5 points in 26.5 minutes while shooting 59% for 2, 40% for 3 and 73% from the free throw line, while continuing to display the same defensive versatility (3.5 steals, one block) that has always characterized his game. Thompson’s shooting mechanics look noticeably improved, especially his footwork and balance, even pulling up off the dribble, and continuing to get good results from the perimeter will go a long way in solidifying himself in the mid-lottery, which is currently wide open.
Injuries continue to cloud draft picture
We have yet to see two top-10 picks play in Nick Smith Jr. (No. 4) and Villanova’s Cam Whitmore (No. 6), which makes it difficult to fully get a gauge for how the top of this draft might shake out. Smith played only six minutes on a minutes restriction on Monday after sitting out the first six games of the season with a knee injury. Whitmore has been out since early October with a broken thumb but should be nearing a return.
G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, the projected No. 2 pick in the draft, has been in concussion protocol since Nov. 18 after suffering a nasal fracture in a game against Salt Lake City.
Duke freshman Dariq Whitehead (No. 15) returned to the floor after an extended absence due to a stress fracture and has struggled to make an impact in the six games he’s played on a minutes restriction thus far, shooting just 12-for-39 from the floor with one assist and five turnovers. It will likely take time to assess exactly where he fits into the first-round conversation.
French wing Rayan Rupert (No. 18) fractured a wrist in early November and will be out at least until January. His team’s last game of the regular season is Feb. 2.
Quick hitters:
Xavier’s Colby Jones had a breakout performance at the PK85 tournament, averaging 18 points, six rebounds and five assists while shooting 9-for-10 from beyond the arc in three games. Entering the season a career 30% 3-point shooter, Jones had some questions to answer in that department, especially since he doesn’t pop from a physical standpoint with his average size, length, frame and explosiveness.
Jones started off the season cold, not making a single 3-pointer in his first three games, but was scorching in Portland, which is a significant development considering how many NBA decision-makers were in attendance. Jones’ passing ability and all-around feel for the game are what really make him interesting as a prospect, as well as the toughness he displays defensively. If he can continue to show that his outside shooting is real, he’ll have a chance to enter the conversation as a first-round prospect with the other intangibles he brings to the table.
Oregon’s Kel’el Ware has been up and down to start his college career, dominating overmatched low-major competition while struggling to keep up with the speed of the game in a home loss to Houston in which he posted just two points and three rebounds in 21 minutes. Part of the challenge was coming off the bench and playing out of position at power forward, as Oregon’s best player, N’Faly Dante is also a center, which has made Ware’s learning curve that much steeper.
Dante going down with an unfortunate injury gave scouts two near full games to see Ware back at center against Michigan State and Villanova, which featured more up-and-down play showing his exceptional talent while also demonstrating how far off he is from being ready to make an impact in the NBA.
Ware looks singularly focused at the moment on showing his excellent touch from deep, going 2-for-10 from 3 in his two games as a starter while rarely making contact on screens or rolling to the rim out of pick-and-roll with any kind of purpose. The game generally moves too fast for Ware, who struggles to make good passes, move off the ball effectively and noticeably avoids contact inside the paint, averaging less than three free throw attempts in turn. Defensively, he lacks focus, gambles incessantly, looks lost in open space, and struggles to process the coverages his team is in, being targeted relentlessly by the opposition and getting scored on far more than you’d expect. He’s also not the rebounder you’d expect relative to his tools.
With all of the underachieving play, there were still moments that reminded you what makes Ware so promising as a long-term prospect. He has tremendous touch around the basket and makes a high degree of difficult shots from beyond the arc you wouldn’t expect to see from a 7-footer. He moves with grace, is quick off his feet for offensive rebounds and blocks, and does several things every game that most 18-year-olds can only dream of from a talent standpoint. Ware has every opportunity to help turn around Oregon’s injury-plagued — and thus far — disappointing season if he can ramp up his intensity and physicality and play a more winning style of basketball.
Ricky Council IV made the biggest jump in our projections of any prospect, catapulting himself into the early second round after an impressive Maui Invitational with several jaw-dropping highlights where he averaged 19.3 points, 3.3 assists, three rebounds and 2.7 steals.
At 6-6, with an NBA-caliber frame and exceptional explosiveness, Council has ideal physical tools for a wing with the ability to get his own shot seemingly anytime he wants — something that’s been huge for an Arkansas team playing without projected top-five pick Nick Smith Jr. Council is a freight train in the open court and has increasingly found ways to get himself downhill attacking closeouts, out of handoffs and using screens. His decision-making has been a work in progress, but the flashes he’s shown driving and dishing and getting to the front of the rim off crossovers, in and out dribbles and sharp hesitation moves have been really impressive as well. Scouts will be monitoring his effectiveness operating out of pick-and-roll, going one-on-one, and especially shooting the ball from the perimeter, where he’s had some head-scratching moments.
Council is very much a feast-or-famine prospect, especially on the defensive end where the game clearly moves too fast for him and his intensity level and focus really fluctuate. With all that said, wings with Council’s physical ability, scoring instincts and potential defensive versatility aren’t easy to come by, and he’s in an ideal situation alongside two projected lottery-pick freshmen to establish himself as a first-rounder himself if he can continue to be productive, efficient and consistent.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.
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