Editor’s note: This story was originally published on March 14. Bronny James declared for the NBA draft on Friday.
LAS VEGAS — USC’s season came to a close at the Pac-12 tournament in a 70-49 loss at the hands of top-seeded Arizona.
With the end of USC’s arduous 15-18 season comes draft decisions for the team’s NBA prospects. Projected lottery pick Isaiah Collier is expected to enter the 2024 draft. A different type of decision process awaits Bronny James, whom NBA teams have long viewed as a candidate to turn pro following his freshman year, in large part because of the possibility of him joining a team alongside his father, Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James.
Simply returning to the court has been a significant accomplishment for Bronny James this season after experiencing cardiac arrest during a workout last July that was found to be a byproduct of a congenital heart defect. After being sidelined for five months, James rejoined the Trojans on Dec. 10, working his way into a regular role off the bench.
James averaged 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 25 games. While the numbers, in a vacuum, don’t paint the picture of a one-and-done prospect, NBA teams have been preparing behind-the-scenes for James — like any other prospect — to ultimately enter the 2024 draft and explore professional opportunities. Whether he chooses to stay in the draft is less clear-cut at this point.
LeBron James has been vocal about his hope to share the court professionally with his oldest son. He has also said that Bronny will make his own decision on whether to enter the draft. That situation has created a dynamic surrounding the proposition that drafting Bronny could potentially bolster a team’s chances of adding LeBron in free agency, whether that happens in 2024 or in the future. James has until June 29 to decide whether to exercise his $51.4 million player option with the Lakers.
Rich Paul, CEO of Klutch Sports and LeBron’s longtime agent, told ESPN earlier this month that Bronny would make his decision based more on specific team interest and less on draft position.
“I don’t value a young player getting into the lottery as much as I do getting him on the right team in the right developmental situation,” Paul said.
Because of his heart condition, the NBA’s fitness-to-play panel will have to clear James for activity, at which point, the health question falls on individual teams and their doctors. Players have until April 23 to declare as early entrants, with the NCAA’s withdrawal deadline at 11:59 p.m. ET on May 31.
To better understand how NBA teams view James as an NBA prospect, and the optics of his potential draft candidacy, ESPN spoke to three NBA executives who agreed to speak candidly on the condition of anonymity.
These interviews have been lightly condensed and edited for clarity.
NBA exec: We would recommend Bronny go back to college
I’ll be honest, we didn’t have huge expectations for [Bronny] heading into the season. I know some mocks had him as a top-20 pick, but our group didn’t view him as a player of that caliber. I don’t know exactly what his role is going to be, and I think it’s hard to project him in a half-court setting. He doesn’t have great separation off the bounce, he’s not a really good perimeter shooter, so it’s going to be tough to unlock some of the creation, because I don’t think teams are going to get up on him defensively. They’ll probably allow him some space [until he proves it]. I think it’s going to be more of a defensive bet, and it’s more of a wing profile. I think he’ll struggle with some of the quicker guards, he dies on some screens, it’s a work in progress.
The medical stuff is concerning. We have a very conservative medical staff, and obviously players who have had [heart issues] like Jared Butler, Keyontae Johnson, there’s always a lot of debate internally. But I don’t think LeBron would put his son in that position [if it were a major concern]. They don’t need the money, and these things are bigger than basketball. So it sounds like everything is going well.
I don’t know if he’s going to come back [to school]. We’d recommend he go back, just because this season didn’t get off on the right foot. He was behind due to the cardiac episode, being away from the team, the rehab, etc. So I think going back and continuing to fine-tune these skills [would help], because the offseason is when you really develop stuff. College coaches are trying to win games [during the season]. With the time he lost, he was trying to play catch-up all year. But I don’t know what Klutch is going to advise him to do.
His body is physically mature. He’s a strong kid. From a physicality point of view, he’s ready, but from a skill point of view, and a shot point of view, he could use more time in the gym developing. Another year at USC might put him in a position to have a more successful career than coming out now. But you have to be ready, because I’ll be surprised if he isn’t in the draft. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out because there’s so much smoke around it.
I don’t know that he’s dead set on coming out. But I know some teams would consider drafting him on the hope they can sign LeBron, as well. A team would have to have room or have assets the Lakers would want, and I don’t see that as likely, but I think there will be teams that will take that approach. I think everyone is preparing for him to go in the draft, and I’m dead serious — I think a lot of teams will take the stance that they’ll draft him if there’s a 1% chance LeBron will join them. So, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t enter. Will he stay in, I don’t know. — Eastern Conference executive
NBA exec: ‘I don’t know what he does at an NBA level’
I feel like [expectations] were always overboard. He’s a good player, but if his situation wasn’t what it was, I’m not sure how much attention he’d be garnering. It’s just one of those things where [Bronny] has a burden to bear, and all things considered, he’s done an amazing job with the things he’s had to overcome. He’s a solid player. I thought he was shooting it pretty well, especially going into the McDonald’s game last year, and he’s a good athlete, but he’s smaller [for a wing]. So it’s one of those tricky things for him. … In the NBA, there aren’t a lot of guys like that who play at a high level. You can carve out a role, but it’s an uphill battle regardless. So I think it’s overblown a little bit in terms of the expectations, but there’s a hype train that comes along with being LeBron’s son.
If he goes back, I think he’ll have a better year, because hopefully his health is fully stabilized and he can have a full year of training and focus, and maybe the expectations are lowered so he can just play. I think that could be really helpful. I don’t know that it changes his trajectory that much, but he’ll have a better year I’d imagine. He’s not a bad player at all, there’s a lot of good things about him, but there are weaknesses, too, with height, stature. He can playmake, but it’s tough, I don’t know what he does at an NBA level that really moves the needle. It’s got to be the shooting ability and the defensive stuff.
I mean, we’re not even having this conversation if it wasn’t what it is. … The thing about Jared Butler, he won a national championship, he was really good, but he still had to overcome the heart stuff, and that dropped him so low. He was a much better player. So it’s tough, not just the player but the health factor. When you think about guys, teams have shown they are willing to do it. OKC did it with Keyontae and Jared, but it’s a massive risk. If you’re not sure and your doctors don’t clear it, guys get red-flagged.
[The idea of pairing them] would be different if LeBron [were younger]. He’s still really good at 40, All-Star good — but there’s a lot that comes along with [adding him]. If you do that, you got to sacrifice, and think about the other players that are on the roster, too. He’s going to help you win basketball games, but there’s a sideshow that comes along with it. But I can see it — he’s already on the Lakers, and they know how to deal with [that spotlight] so I’m hard-pressed to see him going anywhere else.
I’m curious how the workout process will go. That’ll be a telling question. They’re smart people. [LeBron’s camp] knows what they’re doing. And these things are calculated in a way, so all these things that get said and written, the tell will be whether they allow him to go work out for anybody, or if only certain teams get him in. I can’t knock them for it, they’re trying to control the narrative and do what will help him the most. This just comes along with it. — Eastern Conference executive
NBA exec: ‘I feel bad a little bit’ for Bronny
He was obviously on the high school circuit, and we all saw him. I thought there was a positive trajectory — it went from “Why is this guy a McDonald’s guy?” to “Oh, he’s a reasonable player.” I would have expected his freshman year to turn out somewhat similar to this, maybe a little better, because I thought USC would be a more coherent and functional team, which they weren’t. I don’t think he underachieved or overachieved in either direction.
When I saw him, I was very much like, this is going to be a smart role player who maybe has an NBA future off being some version of a defense-first, smart-passer wing. And he doesn’t have great size, so it’s going to have to be off IQ and skill. At his best, that’s what he looked like. We talk about a lot of kids a year early, but when they decide to come out, they decide to come out and there’s nothing we can do. This situation just felt more scripted because we thought from the jump he would come out.
You miss four months of the offseason and try to rush back, that’s really tough to do. So I grade him on a heavy curve, personally. I imagine from a basketball perspective, the best thing would have been for him to not play because he missed so much time over the summer to adjust to college basketball, and you get thrown in the middle with this kind of weird team that wasn’t functioning anyways. I thought it made for what I think ended up being a clunky situation in every direction. To the kid’s credit, I think he did his best. You’ve seen some positive flashes, but he’s another guy on the team, and if we were doing this objectively, I think he’d be someone we’d say we’d expect a pretty good sophomore year from.
Bronny, to me, is going to look good around other good players, because he’s not an alpha skill set, he’s very much a complementary player. This wasn’t just him, this was true of a bunch of guys: He just wasn’t set up to succeed all that much this year.
If he goes back, he gets an entire offseason. That’s the biggest thing to me. You can see a big jump with kids from Year 1 to Year 2, and I’d expect him to come back knowing a role and where he is in the pecking order. I don’t think he knew and I don’t think USC ever knew this year. In some games I felt he’s very important to them and in other games they’ve kind of force-fed him minutes. And if he came back another year, I think he’d pretty firmly know where he stands, and it wouldn’t be a very iso-centric team next year because Isaiah is going to leave. So it goes back to being five guys moving the ball around in order to be successful. Between Isaiah and Boogie [Ellis], the ball just doesn’t move [on this team].
I don’t think too many NBA guys got caught up [in the hype] because we see these guys in high school. He was never like, a top-five guy. I think there’s a public narrative and then a narrative that’s going around in draft rooms, and those two are not the same thing. And I actually think most thought it was probably going to go like this. And, I would say, this is through no fault of the kid’s — I don’t think he did anything wrong, by all accounts he seems like a pretty nice kid, and he’s handling it the best he can. He was just thrust into the spotlight before he was totally ready, and then you add in a health issue, what are you going to do? It’s not his fault.
I feel bad a little bit because [Bronny] gets raked over the coals more than other guys would at this point. He’s another freshman who’s doing all right, but he’s just under this pretty intense microscope, and through no action of his own. He’s done nothing wrong to anybody. — Western Conference executive
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