We had a small slate of games on Monday, but most of them had some playoff implications. Some thoughts …
Item No. 1: James Paxton tosses another gem. Paxton allowed four hits over 6⅔ scoreless innings as the Yankees blanked the Red Sox 5-0 in the teams’ final meeting of 2019. David Ortiz threw out the ceremonial first pitch, but even that wasn’t enough to lift the Red Sox, who fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski on Sunday night and look like they’re ready to mail it in down the stretch. The Yankees dominated the season series, winning 14 of 19 games, which explains why the Red Sox were officially eliminated from the AL East race with the defeat and why Dombrowski was canned less than a year after building a World Series champion. It was the most lopsided season series between the two rivals since the Yankees went 10-3 against the Red Sox in 1980.
The bigger result for the Yankees, however, was Paxton checking in with his second consecutive scoreless start after allowing one hit in seven innings against the Rangers. Over his past eight starts, he’s 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA and .170 batting average allowed. You have to think Paxton is pitching himself into that Game 1 start in the postseason over Masahiro Tanaka. Assuming Paxton stays hot over his final three or four starts, it will be an interesting decision for Aaron Boone. Do you go with Tanaka, who has playoff experience and has pitched well in October, or Paxton, who will be playing in his first postseason.
Anyway, I was curious to see if having a “hot” pitcher heading into the postseason is a key factor for the eventual World Series champ. This is more anecdotal than anything — plenty of hot pitchers have played on teams that flamed out in the first round — but let’s check in on recent champs to see if they had a hot starter.
2018 Red Sox: Ace Chris Sale was slowed by injury, but David Price was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA over his final nine starts. Price struggled in his first playoff start, but finally turned it around and ended his postseason blues. (I still think he should have won World Series MVP honors.)
2017 Astros: Justin Verlander came over in an Aug. 31 deal and went 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts. He was then a huge factor in the playoffs, especially in the ALCS against the Yankees, when he allowed one run in 16 innings, including a complete-game win in Game 2.
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2016 Cubs: The Cubs had two red-hot starters over the final two months of 2016. Jon Lester went 8-1 with a 1.57 ERA and Kyle Hendricks went 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA. Lester had a 2.02 ERA over 35⅔ innings in the playoffs and Hendricks a 1.42 ERA over 25⅓ innings.
2015 Royals: Kansas City’s hottest starter was Yordano Ventura, who went 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA over the final two months. Ventura didn’t have a great postseason, however, going 0-2 in five starts with a 6.43 ERA.
2014 Giants: Should we have seen Madison Bumgarner’s historic postseason run coming? In his final 10 starts in August and September, he was 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA, with a meager .200/.230/.342 batting line allowed. He managed to do even better than that in October.
2013 Red Sox: Lester had gone 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA over the final two months, although his peripheral numbers weren’t anything special other than just two home runs allowed in 74⅓ innings. But he was great in October, going 4-1 in five starts with a 1.56 ERA, not allowing more than two runs in any of his starts and limiting batters to a .205/.265/.295 line.
2012 Giants: Matt Cain was easily the Giants’ best pitcher down the stretch, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA the final two months. He went 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA in the postseason over five starts. Ryan Vogelsong (1.09 ERA in four starts) and Barry Zito (1.69 ERA in three starts) were actually the team’s best starters in October.
Can Paxton be the Yankees’ version of Jon Lester or even last year’s David Price? He certainly has the stuff and when he’s a roll, he’s a tough customer. One thing worth noting: Of all the pitchers mentioned above, all except Vogelsong had previous postseason experience. I always feel that is overrated, but maybe there is something to having pitched in that pressure. Game 1 of the Division Series is a long way from a regular season start in Seattle, that’s for sure.
Item No. 2: Braves beat the Phillies 7-2. The Braves continue to play their best baseball of the season and have gone 18-3 over their past 21 games, moving just three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. Mike Foltynewicz had his best start of the season: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 1 HR. He threw 71 of 102 pitches for strikes, with the Phillies’ chase rate of 37.2% helping him out. He also got 12 swing-and-misses after getting 14 over his past two starts combined (both against a bad Blue Jays lineup). That’s not a huge number of misses, but suggests the stuff is there. Indeed, he hit 97 with his fastest pitch of the night and kept the Phillies guessing by throwing both his curveball and slider for strikes and mixing in a two-seamer that induced eight ground ball outs on his 14 balls in play.
Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are now both slugging under .500. They’ve hardly been the biggest problems for the Phillies this season, but considering 54 qualified regulars are slugging over .500, it’s disappointing that those two, playing in a bandbox, haven’t fared better. For all the issues in the rotation and the injures in the bullpen, the Phillies expected more from the meat of their order. They’ve been good … but not great.
Item No. 3: Astros take more batting practice. A day after beating the Mariners 21-1, the Astros clobbered the A’s 15-0, scoring 11 runs over the first two innings and snapping Mike Fiers’ streak of 21 starts in a row without a loss — he had gone 12-0 with a 2.59 ERA in that stretch. The Astros’ plus-35 run differential over two games is the fourth-best over two games since 1900 and the best since the 1953 Red Sox went plus-36 on June 17 and 18. Those Red Sox posted 17-1 and 23-3 wins over the Tigers. Get this: In the second game, the Red Sox scored 17 runs in the seventh inning! Gene Stephens had three hits in the inning as the Red Sox had 14 hits and six walks (although only one home run).
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Yordan Alvarez hits a solo home run in the 1st inning and another in the 2nd as the Astros dominate the A’s 15-0.
Yordan Alvarez blasted two home runs and is now hitting .316/.409/.673 in 71 games. Since he won’t get to 100 games, here’s a list of best OPS over partial seasons by rookies since 1950 (minimum 200 PAs):
Willie McCovey, 1959 Giants: 1.085 OPS (.354/.429/.656)
Yordan Alvarez, 2019 Astros: 1.082 OPS (.316/.409/.673)
Luke Scott, 2006 Astros: 1.047 OPS (.336/.426/.621)
Gary Sanchez, 2016 Yankees: 1.032 OPS (.299/.376/.657)
Rhys Hoskins, 2017 Phillies: 1.014 OPS (.259/.396/.618)
Matt Olson, 2017 A’s: 1.003 OPS (.259/.352/.651)
I get the feeling Alvarez is going to be one of the most important figures this October, the lefty slugger who helps balance out that lineup that mostly hits right-handed. Oh, and in 99 PAs against southpaws, Alvarez has hit .291/.374/.628.
Item No. 4: Brewers beat Miami 8-3 as Trent Grisham goes 5-for-6. The Brewers remained two games behind the Cubs for the second wild card (tied with the Diamondbacks and a half game ahead of the Phillies). FanGraphs gives the Brewers a 25% chance of making the playoffs, but here’s a big reason why you shouldn’t ignore them: three more at Miami, three at St. Louis, three vs. San Diego, three vs. Pittsburgh, and then season-ending series at Cincinnati and Colorado. The Brewers have the easiest remaining schedule of the wild-card contenders. That’s good news, but it also means fewer head-to-head games to make up ground. Still, the schedule gives the Brewers a chance.
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Item No. 5: Pete Alonso mashes two more home runs and Jacob deGrom goes seven strong innings in a 3-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Given the standings — the Mets would need to jump over four teams to get into the second wild card — this game was more about Arizona losing than the Mets winning. Still, kudos to Alonso for his two home runs off Merrill Kelly, giving him 47 and a two-homer lead over Mike Trout for most in the majors and bringing him within five of Aaron Judge’s rookie record. Judge, however, did not lead the majors in home runs (that was the year Giancarlo Stanton hit 59). The only rookies to lead the majors: Mark McGwire in 1987 (49, tied with Andre Dawson) and, of course, Tim Jordan in 1906 (tied with Harry Davis).
Item No. 6: What a debut for Cubs rookie Nico Hoerner. Hoerner became the first player from the 2018 draft class to reach the majors. With Javier Baez and Addison Russell both out, the Cubs called up Hoerner, who had last played on Sept. 2 in Double-A, to fill in at shortstop. All he did was go 3-for-5 with a triple, two runs and four RBIs.
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