$325 million … and an 8.38 spring training ERA? Breaking down what to expect from Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Heading into one of the most anticipated MLB debuts in recent history, there are two numbers that sum up what many know about Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 325 million and 8.38.
The first is the total guaranteed dollars in Yamamoto’s record-setting 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers — a contract handed out this winter based on the 25-year-old’s track record of dominance in Japan’s NPB, widely considered the second best baseball league on the planet.
The second is Yamamoto’s Cactus League ERA in three spring starts. Yes, that number is the epitome of both small sample size and “do spring training stats even mean anything, anyway?” — but it’s also certainly not what Dodgers fans were hoping to see in their first glimpse of the highest paid free agent pitcher in MLB history.
Because of the expectations that come with Yamamoto’s contract — and the pressure on the Dodgers to win big this year — there will be no time for an adjustment period for the right-hander, despite having no major league experience.
Yamamoto will make his MLB regular-season debut Thursday against the San Diego Padres . So to separate fact from fiction, I watched all 151 pitches Yamamoto threw in the Cactus League and got some takes from a scout who saw his final spring outing.
So what does Yamamoto need to change to find immediate success after his spring struggles? Let’s go pitch-by-pitch to find an answer.
Fastball (47% usage, 94-96, touching 97 mph)
This isn’t Yamamoto’s best pitch, we’ll get to that, but we’ll start here because the fastball is what he throws most frequently and his success on this pitch will go a long way in determining how his 2024 season plays out.
The reports I got from Yamamoto’s 2023 season suggested that his fastball would be a plus pitch in the majors, maybe a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale — with Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ metric suggesting that it might even be a bit better.
Yamamoto’s fastball velocity has been above average for years and the scout who saw him last week echoes other evaluators, saying that his “fastball definitely plays up due to delivery and arm slot.”
A deceptive delivery, a flatter-than-average approach angle and command of good velocity is a winning formula, and Yamamoto appears to have that combination, plus riding life on the pitch. But during spring training, his fastball played below its grade — because it was basically the only pitch he threw that batters could actually hit. Of the 16 line drives, fly balls and hard grounders he allowed, 13 of them came off fastballs, and the other three off curveballs. Of those 13 balls in play off fastballs, only one was clearly out of the strike zone.
His first pitch of an at-bat was a fastball 62% of the time and 55% of his first pitches were in the strike zone, with an additional 11% very close to the zone.
In his last Cactus League outing, the Seattle Mariners were clearly aware of his tendency to lead with the fastball: The second time through the lineup, the top six hitters in the lineup basically ambushed first pitch strikes and/or the first fastball he threw in the zone, producing four hits and a deep flyout.
The scout watching this outing offered another explanation: “He has a unique delivery that is hard for hitters to time up their first time seeing him …[Seattle] started getting to him the second time through, after figuring [it] out.”
My instinct would be for Yamamoto to throw more offspeed pitches, and especially to start at-bats with something other than the fastball more often. Given the transition from spring training usage to regular-season usage, that should happen naturally as he goes deeper in games and needs to give different looks later in starts. I think the components are here for a 60-grade or better pitch with a slight tweak to his first pitch location and pitch selections.
Splitter (19% usage, 89-91 mph)
Despite the low usage rate, this is Yamamoto’s best pitch — and one I think he’ll be throwing more frequently during the regular season. He didn’t need to unleash it in the Cactus League — he already knows it’s a real weapon.
Of the 29 splitters Yamamoto threw this spring, only five were in the strike zone and he threw it down in the zone or below the zone all but once. The 16 total swings against his splitter produced one weak grounder, four foul balls and 11 whiffs — good for a 69% whiff rate. Kodai Senga’s ghost fork drew the highest whiff rate on a splitter among MLB starters last season — a 60% whiff rate. Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ ratings from Yamamoto’s WBC outing graded the pitch as a 155, which would be the best splitter among all big league starters. Scouts universally have called this a plus-plus pitch, at least a 70 on the 20-80 scale.
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There’s also a tunneling element the scout noticed when Yamamoto goes to his best pitch on the heels after setting it up with a heater: “The splitter is really hard to lay off of when he is [locating] his fastball at the knees.”
Yamamoto threw a fastball followed by a splitter to the same batter eight times in the Cactus League. In all six of the eight instances, the fastball came in a one-strike count. Of those six, the fastball was a strike every time, and in five of the six instances, the splitter was the strikeout pitch (the other splitter was fouled back, then the batter struck out on the next pitch). That might be a teaser for something we’ll see much more often in the regular season.
It’s a potent late at-bat pitch, and if he increases the usage rate to 35%, there’s a real chance Yamamoto’s splitter can still produce MLB-leading numbers.
Cutter (13% usage, 90-92 mph)
Yamamoto’s cutter functions more like a fastball than a slider. Only two of the 20 cutters he threw in Arizona drew whiffs, but the 18 others produced weak contact.
Both this spring and during his time in Japan, Yamamoto has thrown it almost exclusively to his glove side (i.e. inside to lefties). About two-thirds of his spring training cutters were thrown against left-handed hitters, allowing it to look like a center-cut fastball that ends up running in on their hands.
Overall, Yamamoto’s cutter rates as an average to slightly above pitch, but it is also a pitch he uses mostly to induce weak contact and establish a different look that keeps hitters honest against his fastball and slider. It plays a key role in uniting his arsenal and filling what would’ve been a hole in his offerings.
Curveball (21% usage, 75-80 mph)
Paired with the three pitches we’ve covered so far that all come in at 90 mph or greater, Yamamoto’s curveball also plays a crucial role in keeping opposing hitters off balance.
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His curve is of the classic big-breaking variety — a type that fans are often drawn to because it is visually appealing, but that scouts would say is an average-to-below pitch for lesser pitchers. Yamamoto’s version grades out as above-average because he runs it up to 80 mph and he can land in the zone or bury it in the dirt for a chase.
That said, the scout noticed that Yamamoto uses his hook as “more of a get-me-over pitch than an out pitch.”
Of the 31 times he threw it this spring, Yamamoto’s curve only yielded one hard-hit ball — a double by Mitch Garver during that sequence when the Mariners were hunting first-pitch strikes and Yamamoto threw him one in the zone. Nearly three-quarters of Yamamoto’s spring curveballs were thrown in the bottom of the zone or just below the zone, and he uses it almost equally against righty and lefty hitters.
While it will likely continue to lag behind his splitter as an out pitch, it is easy to see how the curveball would pair well with an elevated fastball and just-below-the-zone splitter. It’ll come in handy when Yamamoto looks to set up hitters deeper in counts during the regular season.
What it all means
The scouting report I came up with from the Cactus League is pretty similar to the scouting report from Yamamoto’s final NPB season and his 2023 World Baseball Classic WBC appearances.
Having the pitch arsenal to succeed in the majors and being able to control those pitches well enough to succeed in the majors are two different things, and Yamamoto’s command was one of the most encouraging things about his spring performances. He has plus command and control of two above-average-to-plus pitches — his fastball and curveball — along with a true knockout plus-plus pitch in his splitter and a complementary cutter that plays a key role.
I saw only one of his 151 pitches land in the dreaded middle-middle zone (a cutter that still drew a whiff), with almost all of his missed locations either on the edge of the zone or in noncompetitive locations. For major league pitchers, the ability to miss in no-damage areas, instead of leaving mistakes out over the plate, is the difference between continuing an at-bat and turning to see a pitch travel 400-plus feet.
In just a few starts, Yamamoto proved his ability to adapt quickly: I immediately noticed in his first spring outing — as did the Dodgers broadcast — that you could see how he was gripping his pitches in his glove from the windup. It’s a relatively easy fix that he addressed by his last spring start.
In his third outing, he also moved where his hands set in the stretch to be much closer to his body. I don’t know if this adjustment was mechanically driven or is related to indicating pitch types, but it’s something to keep an eye on in his next start and a reminder that for all the hype, Yamamoto is still a young pitcher finding his footing in a new league.
And there are still areas of concern that he’ll need to keep an eye on during the regular season. Yamamoto had trouble with the pitch clock late in his final outing, leading to one violation. I’d guess that fatigue and trying to come up with a plan for attacking hitters in their second at-bat contributed to this, so he’ll have to learn to work quickly.
There’s also a team element that is especially important for a pitcher who relies on inducing weak contact: Yamamoto’s infield support was awful during the spring, with Gavin Lux having a defensive meltdown at shortstop and Max Muncy botching a chopper in his second start. Infield defense is not going to be a strength of the Dodgers this season, but there should be improvement around Yamamoto now that Lux has been moved from shortstop to second base.
That all contributed to that unexpected 8.38 ERA, as did poor luck on not-hard hit grounders getting past the infield for seeing-eye singles. I think his strikeout to walk ratio of 14-to-4 in 9.2 innings is more indicative of what you’ll see in the regular season.
All in all, there are some pretty simple adjustments Yamamoto needs to make to become the frontline starter and potential ace that the Dodgers are projecting, and I think he’ll perform like that pitcher pretty quickly — maybe as soon as a few days from now. Our scout seems to agree:
“After an adjustment period here [which may be a little longer than people think], he should be a top pitcher in the sport.”
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