The largest expat group in the Gulf nation uncertain of their future as proposed law could force about 800,000 to leave.

In spite of having neither job nor savings, Indian electrician Shibhu Clemance was still hopeful that he would be able to find work again in Kuwait – until he learned of a proposal to drastically cut back on migrants in the country.

The 38-year-old, who lost his job in February due to the coronavirus pandemic, is among more than a million Indians in Kuwait, the largest expat group in the Gulf country of 4.4 million.

But after the pandemic hit oil prices and local jobs, Kuwait is considering setting new limits that could force about 800,000 Indians to leave the country, potentially slashing their remittances – a crucial lifeline for families back home.

The proposal is in a new bill that would cut the total number of migrant workers in the country by 40 percent and require that the number of Indians not exceed 15 percent of the Kuwaiti population.

“I came to the Gulf and toiled hard to provide a better life for my children. The COVID-19 crisis and now the new Kuwait law have shattered my dreams,” Clemance told Reuters news agency by phone from the coastal city of Mangaf.

Before he lost his job in February, he was able to send 40,000 Indian rupees ($530) to his wife and two children who live in a cramped house in the southern Indian state of Kerala with his in-laws and six other relatives.

We will virtually be on the street if my husband is compelled to return.

WIFE OF KERALA MIGRANT WORKER

The Kuwaiti government has yet to approve the bill, but the prime minister said last month he wants to cut the expat population of about 3 million.

Assembly Speaker Marzouq Al-Ghanem has proposed a gradual reduction in foreign workers, starting with a 5-percent cut in numbers, and indicated the country needed fewer low-skilled migrants.

Parliament will finalise the bill during the current session that ends in October, before sending it to the government for approval.

Indians working in Kuwait sent home almost $4.6bn in 2017, about 6.7 percent of the country’s total incoming remittances that year, according to World Bank data.

But a global recession in the wake of COVID-19 has decimated jobs and slashed cash flows. The World Bank estimates remittances to India will drop by 23 percent from $83bn last year to $64bn this year.

‘We will virtually be on the street’

“We are in real trouble since the money stopped coming … Every day, Shibu calls me and shares his sorrows. I’m planning to sell my gold to help him,” the 29-year-old said.

“We will virtually be on the street if my husband is compelled to return. I can’t even sleep thinking about this.”

Her concerns are echoed throughout the southern state of Kerala, which has about 2 million people working in the Gulf, according to a 2018 migration survey by the Centre for Development Studies.

State data shows 70 percent of the Indians in Kuwait are from Kerala.

Since the 1960s, remittances from the Gulf have been the backbone of Kerala’s economy, making up nearly 20 percent of the state’s gross domestic product, according to the survey.

Expats employed in ‘3D jobs’

S Irudaya Rajan, a member of the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs’ research unit on international migration, said the expat bill was a knee-jerk reaction that would fizzle out after the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Even if Kuwait means business, it will not have a huge impact on expatriates since most of them concentrate on the 3D jobs – dirty, dangerous and demeaning,” he said.

“These are categories that local nationals are unlikely to step in and take.”

A spokesman for India’s foreign ministry said it was monitoring developments in Kuwait and the foreign ministers of both countries had discussed the bill.

Robert Mogielnicki, resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, DC, said the impact on remittances would depend on when and how Kuwait enforces the expat quota.

He said Kuwait had historically been slow to enact economic reforms, but the current pressures had brought a sense of urgency.

[Most] of them [expats] concentrate on 3D jobs – dirty, dangerous and demeaning.

S IRUDAYA RAJAN, MEMBER OF MINISTRY OF OVERSEAS INDIAN AFFAIRS’ RESEARCH UNIT

Last month, the Indian government created a database of the skills and experience of returning migrants to help fill jobs in Indian and foreign companies.

Kerala has already devised a plan for the reintegration of incomers, said Harikrishnan Nampoothiri, chief of NORKA-Roots, a state government agency for the welfare of expats and returnees.

It includes upgrading skills to help people migrate again in the future, a financial scheme of up to 3 million rupees ($40,000) so they can start their own businesses, subsidised loans and mentoring camps.

Yet Vinoy Wilson, a father of three who works as a department store supervisor in Kuwait, had little hope of finding a job in India that would pay enough to fund his children’s education and repay the money he borrowed for a new home in Kerala.

He said he worried that he would be among the first low-skilled workers to be packed off, meaning he would have to sell his “dream” home.

“I don’t know where I will go if I lose my job. I have loans that I can’t repay without a steady income,” he said.

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