Who’s next for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023 and beyond?
On Saturday, the Hall will welcome 13 inductees, including two former NBA players chosen through the typical finalist process: Manu Ginobili and Tim Hardaway. (Lou Hudson, the third NBA player who is part of this year’s class, was chosen by the direct-elect veterans committee).
As we look ahead to next year and beyond, let’s consider which new NBA players will be on the ballot in 2023, 2024 and 2025. As well, given the majority of recent Hall of Fame inductees — like Hardaway — have not been in their first year of eligibility, let’s look at the holdovers on the ballot who might have a chance to make it in future years. (The class for 2023 will be announced in early April during NCAA Final Four weekend in Houston.)
Projecting Naismith Hall of Fame inductees isn’t always easy because of the lack of transparency in the process conducted by committees with unknown members behind closed doors, explained recently by ESPN’s Baxter Holmes. Still, we’ll do our best to consider which NBA legends might soon be getting a Hall call of their own.
Newly eligible in 2023
1a. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks, 1998-2019)
1b. Dwyane Wade (Miami Heat, 2003-16, 2018-19; Chicago Bulls, 2016-17; Cleveland Cavaliers, 2017-18)
The careers of Nowitzki and Wade, linked by Finals matchups in 2006 and 2011 in which each of them won Finals MVP and their first title, will remain connected as they are locks to to be first-ballot Hall of Famers next year.
3. Tony Parker (San Antonio Spurs, 2001-18; Charlotte Hornets, 2018-19)
Parker is in a similar situation to Ginobili, his longtime backcourt mate with the Spurs. Based on individual accomplishments, Parker is a borderline case. He fell just short of 20,000 career points, and his six All-Star appearances don’t quite guarantee selection. (Shawn Kemp and Jermaine O’Neal are two recent stars with six All-Star nods who haven’t been finalists). A Finals MVP won in 2007 will likely push Parker over the top, perhaps as a first-year candidate.
Newly eligible in 2024
1. Vince Carter (Toronto Raptors, 1998-2004; New Jersey Nets, 2004-09; Orlando Magic, 2009-10; Phoenix Suns, 2010-11; Dallas Mavericks, 2011-14; Memphis Grizzlies, 2014-17; Sacramento Kings, 2017-18; Atlanta Hawks, 2018-20)
Hey, remember when we debated whether Carter was a Hall of Famer? His impressive longevity answered that question in the affirmative. Not only did Carter clear 20,000 career points, he topped 25,000 to finish 22nd in the history of the NBA. There’s no longer any doubt that Carter is headed to the Hall, likely as a first-ballot pick given the lack of other candidates in 2024.
Jamal Crawford is the next-best contender after officially announcing his retirement last spring, two years after last playing in the NBA,. Crawford has three Sixth Man of the Year Awards to his credit but probably needed to get to 20,000 points to have a chance without making an All-Star Game. Crawford fell 581 points short of that milestone.
Newly eligible in 2025
1. Pau Gasol (Memphis Grizzlies, 2001-08; Los Angeles Lakers, 2008-14; Chicago Bulls, 2014-16; San Antonio Spurs 2016-19; Milwaukee Bucks, 2019)
You might be wondering why Gasol is here, given he last played in the NBA in 2018-19. However, it’s the basketball Hall of Fame, not the NBA one, so the period Gasol spent playing with FC Barcelona in 2021 should count before what the Hall defines as “full retirement.” The Hall website does offer an exception for players who “come out of retirement for a short period of time” — left to the committee’s discretion, like everything else — but saving Gasol makes sense given the lack of other first-year candidates in 2025.
In terms of NBA players who retired after 2020-21, current ESPN analyst J.J. Redick is the next-best candidate. With zero All-Star appearances, no titles and just over 12,000 career points, Redick is probably not a serious Hall contender. As for Gasol’s brother, Marc, he, too, apparently delayed his eligibility by playing in Spain for Basquet Girona last season after leaving the NBA. Right now, Marc Gasol wouldn’t be eligible until at least 2026.
Holdover candidates
Given the way the Hall of Fame operates, it makes most sense to look at the finalists who have not made it in recent years to see which players already eligible have the best chance of filling out future classes. Aside from the two finalists who weren’t chosen last year, remarkably just one NBA player to reach that stage in the past 15 years has not been selected yet: Kevin Johnson, who was last a finalist in 2016.
1. Marques Johnson (Milwaukee Bucks, 1977-84; Los Angeles Clippers, 1984-87; Golden State Warriors, 1989)
Johnson, a finalist three of the past four years, seems nearly certain to eventually reach the Hall, though perhaps not until the ballot thins in 2024. Johnson’s career totals were limited by injury, but he’s a five-time All-Star and a legend at UCLA where he helped John Wooden to his final championship and won National Player of the Year honors as a senior.
2. Michael Cooper (Los Angeles Lakers, 1978-1990)
As a role player on the Lakers’ championship teams, Cooper has been a less conventional finalist the past two years. He never made an All-Star appearance, which would seem to shift the criteria for Hall of Fame selection. But Cooper was part of all five Lakers titles in the 1980s and picked for five All-Defensive first teams and three second teams in addition to winning Defensive Player of the Year in 1986-87. Cooper can point to K.C. Jones, a member of eight Boston Celtics championship teams but never an All-Star, as Hall of Fame precedent.
3. Joe Johnson (Boston Celtics, 2001-02, 2021-22; Phoenix Suns, 2002-05; Atlanta Hawks, 2005-12; Brooklyn Nets, 2012-16; Miami Heat, 2016; Utah Jazz, 2016-18; Houston Rockets, 2018)
Although Johnson wasn’t even a candidate in his first year of eligibility, as I noted back during Johnson’s playing career, his resumé is more typical of a Hall of Famer than you might think. Every eligible player with at least seven All-Star appearances in the modern era has made it, as have nearly all players with at least 20,000 career points (Tom Chambers and Antawn Jamison, the two players to clear the bar by less than Johnson, are the exceptions).
At some point as scoring proliferates, we might have to revisit the 20,000 mark as a Hall of Fame standard. But given Johnson’s broad career similarity to Hall of Famer Mitch Richmond (six All-Star appearances, fewer than 100 more career points), I think he’ll eventually make it in.
Who else should the Hall be considering?
1. Shawn Marion (Phoenix Suns, 1999-2008; Miami Heat, 2008-09; Toronto Raptors, 2009; Dallas Mavericks, 2009-14; Cleveland Cavaliers, 2014-15)
Thus far, Steve Nash is the only member of the “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns to reach the Hall, with both Marion and Amar’e Stoudemire being strong contenders to join him. I tend to prefer Marion, who had the longer career and rated better than Stoudemire by advanced stats when they played together in Phoenix, but a heavier emphasis on awards would favor Stoudemire’s five All-NBA appearances — including a first-team nod in 2006-07. Because of his post-NBA career in China and Israel, Stoudemire won’t be eligible for the Hall until 2024.
2. Horace Grant (Chicago Bulls, 1987-94; Orlando Magic, 1994-99, 2001-02; Seattle SuperSonics, 1999-2000; Los Angeles Lakers, 2000-01, 2003-04)
If the Hall wants to reward a defensive-minded role player on championship teams, I think Grant is the better choice than Cooper. Grant was an All-Star once (1993-94), and his career would perhaps be viewed differently had there been more emphasis on efficient scoring during Grant’s heyday. Per Basketball-Reference.com, Grant’s 118 career win shares rank third among eligible players not in the Hall behind Chauncey Billups (121) and Buck Williams (120).
3. Jimmy Jones (New Orleans Buccaneers / Memphis Pros, 1967-71; Utah Stars, 1971-74; Washington Bullets, 1974-77)
The Hall did well recently to expand its ABA representation with the inductions of Indiana Pacers teammates Roger Brown (2013), Mel Daniels (2012) and George McGinnis (2017). That left Jones as the most deserving ABA candidate remaining. A six-time All-Star and three-time All-ABA first-team pick, Jones produced more than either Brown or McGinnis. However, Jones’ short post-ABA career with the Washington Bullets and lack of an ABA title (his teams lost in the 1968 and 1974 ABA Finals) has been difficult to overcome.
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