I went hunting deep in the numbers ahead of Super Bowl LVII so you don’t have to.
When we undertook this exercise of uncovering statistical storylines ahead of the big game a year ago, we highlighted both teams’ overreliance on early-down running, which ended up being a key factor in the game. The Los Angeles Rams‘ meager 1.8 yards per designed run (and minus-0.33 EPA per play) on early downs nearly cost them the Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals.
For this game, which will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox)? We’re looking at the highest quality matchup possible in the trenches, a Jalen Hurts weakness that the Kansas City Chiefs‘ defense could exploit, how Kansas City’s defensive scheme matches up with the Philadelphia Eagles‘ go-ball threats and how heavily each team relies on its quarterback. We’re relying on data from a mix of sources that includes NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN internal metrics using Next Gen Stats data and ESPN’s video tracking data.
Let’s dive in.
An extreme strength-on-strength showdown in the trenches
The voraciousness of the Eagles’ pass rush is no secret — they dropped opposing quarterbacks 70 times during the regular season, the most by a team since the Minnesota Vikings had 71 in 1989. The Eagles have added eight more sacks in the playoffs. The advanced numbers back up their pass-rushing prowess, too, as they also lead the league in pass rush win rate (PRWR).
The best indicator of how otherworldly the Eagles’ pass rush has been is to look at who doesn’t start for them. Defensive end Brandon Graham would rank third in PRWR (27.8%) at edge if he qualified for the position, one spot below teammate Haason Reddick (28%) and a bit ahead of Josh Sweat (21.2%), who sits at 10th. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave‘s 17.2% win rate ranks third at the position.
But no game for the Eagles this season will present a more difficult challenge to sack the opposing quarterback than the Super Bowl, for two reasons:
- The Chiefs have the best pass block win rate (PBWR) in the NFL. They’re exceptional at stopping opposing pass-rushers from beating them quickly.
- No quarterback is quite as good at sack avoidance as Patrick Mahomes. Just 11% of pressures against Mahomes resulted in a sack — the lowest rate in the NFL. The rest of the league was over 14%. That being said, Mahomes’ ankle injury could be a mitigating factor.
The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is the interior. Guard Joe Thuney and center Creed Humphrey lead their respective positions in PBWR, and Trey Smith is No. 4 at guard as well. At tackle, the win rates have preferred right tackle Andrew Wylie (sixth in PBWR at tackle, through the postseason) to Orlando Brown Jr. (16th), though both are well above average. But it makes me think. Reddick might be the Eagles’ best pass-rusher, but if pressure is going to come against Mahomes, it might be from Sweat (or Graham) from his blindside against Brown.
Where Hurts struggles
In a sea of strengths, there’s one part of the Eagles quarterback’s game that lags behind a bit — his ability to throw outside the pocket.
We can look at this a few different ways, but however we define it, the numbers are pretty clear: It’s a weakness. Including the postseason, Hurts’ QBR rankings are as follows:
- 21st on throws outside the pocket
- 24th when throwing on the run
- 27th on passes more than four seconds after the snap
On passes in which all three of these factors exist, Hurts ranked 18th in completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, a significant departure from the No. 2 ranking he had on all throws.
Watching through these type of plays, Hurts sometimes forces throws he shouldn’t attempt, and his lack of elite arm strength really shows up.
But there’s a pretty huge caveat. By looking only at the plays in which he throws outside the pocket or on the run after four-plus seconds, we’re excluding a crucial element of Hurts’ game: scrambling. It’s not enough for opponents to force Hurts out of the pocket; they need to do that and prevent him from running.
Still, it’s step one in exploiting Hurts’ weakness. And it’s why Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones will play a particularly crucial role in the Super Bowl. If he can generate pressure and force Hurts out of the pocket, it will go a long way in helping Kansas City’s defense.
Eagles’ go routes vs. Chiefs’ two-high coverage
The Eagles love to go deep, as 5.5% of their pass–catchers’ routes are go routes, the highest rate in the league. Go routes also make up 10% of the route trees for both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, putting each in the top 11 among wide receivers in rate of go routes.
That’s not ideal against a Chiefs defense that runs two-high coverages 55% of the time, second highest in the league behind only the Vikings. That’s because go routes perform worse against those coverages. Over the past five seasons, go routes record 0.6, 0.6 and 0.9 yards per route run against Cover 2 man, Cover 2 zone and Cover 4, respectively, while those same routes are worth 1.0 yards per route run vs. both Cover 1 and Cover 3.
These numbers are backed by common sense: a go route on the outside against a two-high coverage means there’s a safety sitting deep on the outside. Against single-high coverage, the corner marking Brown or Smith would more or less be alone.
The effect is small — we’re talking roughly 10% of Brown’s and Smith’s routes, and we’d expect the Chiefs to be running two-high on roughly half of those plays. But these plays are high leverage. In a game expected to be close, the difference between a completed go ball vs. an incomplete pass or a checkdown could swing the contest.
All that being said, there is a serious mitigating factor in favor of the Eagles. The Chiefs can’t run Cover 2 man against them, because it would allow Hurts to scramble too easily. Just 3% of Hurts’ dropbacks came against the coverage, lowest in the league. While it’s a decent portion of Kansas City’s usual game plan, making up 14% of its coverage, the third-highest rate in the league, it’ll mostly have to drop it in the Super Bowl. The two-high zone coverages (Cover 2 zone is the two-high coverage the Chiefs run the most) remain an option, however.
Heavy quarterback reliance, as there should be
We mentioned at the top that the Rams and Bengals both wasted offensive opportunities on early-down runs last season, yet made it to the Super Bowl anyway.
In the case of Sunday’s matchup, it’s not fair to look at running as a whole because part of the Eagles’ running game involves Hurts himself, and designed runs by quarterbacks are extremely productive. Here’s another way to look at it: How often is each team’s quarterback involved in the play via pass, sack, scramble or designed carry?
If we exclude garbage time — where the losing team has less than 10% chance to win — the top five team QB usage rates, through the postseason, include the Buffalo Bills (73%), Bengals (72%), Chiefs (71%), Los Angeles Chargers (70%) and Eagles (70%).
This makes a lot of sense! Those teams had five of the best — if not the best — quarterbacks in the league. But quarterback quality doesn’t always correlate. Last season, the Bengals and Rams entered the Super Bowl at 65% apiece, and the Packers, who were led by MVP Aaron Rodgers, had a QB usage rate of only 63%, the league average.
My point: Both teams know their advantage comes with the ball in their respective quarterback’s hands, and they exploit that advantage heavily. As they should.
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