Here’s why Trump’s current sizable lead in Pennsylvania is not insurmountable for Biden
President Trump is currently ahead in Pennsylvania by about 618,000 votes, but that lead is not insurmountable for Joe Biden because of “what’s outstanding, based on where it’s outstanding, and based on the method in which that vote was cast outstanding,” CNN’s Phil Mattingly explains.
About 1 million — and possibly more — absentee votes are yet to be counted.
That matters because Democrats expect big turnout in places like Philadelphia, counties around Philadelphia and Alleghany County, which is home to Pittsburgh. It’s not happened yet but that’s largely because of the votes that haven’t been counted yet.
“That is a ton of vote outstanding in Democratic stronghold counties that is absentee,” Mattingly says, adding that typically, a lead of 618,000 votes is a lot to make up with 1 million outstanding votes. But “not when absentee has been going 70%, 75% Biden’s way over what we’ve seen in Wisconsin, what we’ve seen in Michigan.”
Remember: There was still a big voter turnout for President Trump in western Pennsylvania counties. So the outstanding vote doesn’t mean that Biden is going to catch up. It just means that there is an opportunity for the Biden campaign in the state.
Many Democratic operatives last night were dreading the coming hours because it appeared Trump was on his way to victory.
But as the sun rose on Wednesday morning, many of those same operatives are growing more confident, primarily because of how much mail-in and absentee vote is yet to be counted.
“Joe Biden’s path is largely unchanged,” said Guy Cecil, the head of Priorities USA, the top super PAC backing Biden. “It may take a couple of days to count votes & we may need to fight the Trump campaign in court, but Joe Biden is going to win this election.”
Here is part of the reason:
- Wisconsin: Biden built a slim lead in the state overnight, anchored by a surge of absentee voting and all votes being counted in Milwaukee County, a reliably Democratic stronghold. With the major counties in and 97% of the vote counted, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler and state Democrats projected confidence overnight that the lead would hold.
- Michigan: After trailing all night in Michigan, Biden pulled ahead of Trump on Wednesday morning, with votes still left to be counted in Wayne County, a Democratic stronghold, and places like Macomb County in suburban Detroit and Grand Rapids in Kent County. Omar Jimenez reported on Wednesday morning that election officials in Michigan believe they will have a “clear picture” of the state’s outcome by the end of the day.
- Arizona: Much of the vote that remains out is from Maricopa County, a longtime Republican stronghold that has grown more racially and politically diverse over the last decade. Biden maintains a lead over Trump in the state, with 248,000 early votes yet to be officially counted in Maricopa.
- Georgia: While Trump maintains a lead in the state, the bulk of the vote that remains uncounted comes from the greater Atlanta metropolitan area, primarily Fulton, DeKalb and Cobb County, three population centers where Biden is currently running up the score over Trump.
“We feel good,” a senior Biden campaign adviser told CNN’s MJ Lee on Wednesday morning. “We’re going to win today.”
That hope was echoed by others.
“Democrats have just come through a long night of the soul. When a lot of Democrats went to bed last night, they were very, very depressed,” said David Gergen, an adviser to four president and CNN contributor. “But today, this morning, in this dramatic turn about, Democrats are now seeing much brighter rays out there.”
Pennsylvania attorney general says voters can be confident in the counting process, but urges patience
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro urged voters to be patient as the state counts all its ballots, saying that the state will get a “clearer picture” by the end of the day, but cautioned all results will be known “by the end of the week.”
“Here’s the reality: It’s going to take as long as it takes to get an accurate count,” Shapiro said in an interview with CNN’s John Berman. “It’s what the law requires. … we’re going to get a lot more data today; I think you will have a clearer picture of where things are going toward the end of the day, but obviously ballots can be received and counted all the way up until Friday. So I expect that we’ll know by the end of the week.”
Shapiro said that volunteers and clerks from Pennsylvania communities have been awake around the clock to tabulate votes.
“We said all along that we were going to secure and protect and count the vote. We accomplished the first two — the vote was secured and protected — and now we’re going through this laborious process of counting,” he said.
Shapiro said he expects numbers to fluctuate, but voters can have “confidence” in the counting process.
“These votes are going to be tabulated, they’re going to be counted, and at the end of the day, the will of the people of Pennsylvania is going to be respected,” Shapiro said.
It’s almost 10 a.m. ET. Here’s where House, Senate and presidential races stand.
It’s the morning after Election Day, and CNN has not yet projected who will win the presidency. Votes are still being counted in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
At this hour, both candidates still have pathways to get to 270 electoral votes – the number of votes needed to win the presidency.
Based on the races called so far, this is where the race to 270 stands right now:
The Senate
In the Senate, Republicans have dramatically narrowed the path for Democrats to take back the majority, preventing upsets in red states such as South Carolina, Iowa and Montana. But with much of the vote still being counted, Democrats could still win four of these remaining races — and the White House — to take the Senate majority.
Here’s a look at the states where Senate seats are still up for grabs:
- Alaska: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Al Gross.
- Arizona: GOP Sen. Martha McSally is up against Democrat Mark Kelly.
- Georgia: GOP Sen. David Perdue faces Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff.
- Georgia special election: This race will go into a runoff between Republican incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock. The special election had featured a divisive, intra-party matchup between Loeffler and GOP Rep. Doug Collins.
- Maine: GOP Sen. Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
- Michigan: Democratic Sen. Gary Peters faces Republican challenger John James.
- North Carolina: GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is running against Democrat Cal Cunningham.
The House
Republicans had a better night than expected holding on to some of their House seats. At least two incumbent Democrats were ousted by GOP challengers, and more could come as many races are yet to be called.
On the Democratic side, all four congresswomen of “the Squad” — Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts — won reelection. Since taking office in January 2019, the lawmakers, all women of color, have electrified the progressive base thanks to their social media savvy but have also attracted controversy, most notably over their criticism of the US relationship with Israel.
You can view real time results of the House races here.
Here’s a look at where the balance of power in congress currently sits:
Top Biden adviser: “We’re going to win today”
From CNN’s MJ Lee, Arlette Saenz & Sarah Mucha
As vote counting continues in key battleground states, a Biden official tells CNN they believe things are “moving to a conclusion – and moving to a conclusion in our favor.”
The official also offered these broad outlooks on some of the key outstanding battleground states:
- They are confident they will win Wisconsin
- In Michigan, they feel particularly good about their vote-by-mail numbers
- They are also confident about winning Pennsylvania
- In Georgia, they are keeping a close eye on Fulton County.
One top adviser to Biden expressed confidence they would emerge victorious today.
“We feel good,” the senior adviser said. “We’re going to win today.”
But while the Biden campaign urges patience as votes continue to be counted, some have expressed disappointment the campaign was unable to deliver a swift and resounding verdict against President Trump in the hours after polls closed.
“Disappointed there isn’t a complete repudiation of Trump,” one source close to the campaign said. “But I think we will still win.”
For previous updates follow here
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