Irene Aldana will look to add to what’s already been an excellent year for Mexican-born fighters at UFC 289 on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV) when she faces defending two-division champion Amanda Nunes in her first shot at the women’s bantamweight title.
Aldana, coming off a third-round knockout against Macy Chiasson at UFC 279, looks to bring Mexico its fourth UFC title since January, and second women’s title during that span.
Former UFC women’s featherweight and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down how Aldana might be able to pull off an upset and continue Mexico’s dominant run.
Aldana’s path to a title shot
After coming up short against former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm in her first UFC main event in 2020, Aldana earned back-to-back stoppage wins over Yana Santos and Chiasson. Aldana was then set to take on Raquel Pennington in a No. 1 contender bout — a rematch of their 2019 fight, which Aldana lost via split decision. Nunes was scheduled to fight Julianna Peña in a rubber match, but Peña withdrew due to an undisclosed reason. Aldana seized the opportunity and agreed to fight Nunes on short notice.
Aldana, who is mostly known for her striking ability, has continued to evolve and improve her overall game. The most considerable improvement might be her determination to get back to her feet after being taken down.
Against Santos, Aldana was able to showcase her high-level boxing and power as she dominated the entire first round en route to a TKO win. Her fight against Chiasson was much closer. While Aldana displayed her improved takedown defense and ability to work back to her feet after being taken down, Chiasson still proved to be a tough test for her.
To me, the fight was 1-1 going into the final round, with Aldana taking the first round and Chiasson winning the second. It seemed that Chiasson’s unusual size for the division was a problem for Aldana, who usually has a height advantage over her opponents. Still, Aldana managed to dig deep and get a finish in the third round.
Aldana has been a staple of the UFC women’s bantamweight division since 2016. She’s had some impressive performances along the way while showing growth, and now, after stringing together wins in four of her last five fights, she’s fighting for a spot at the top of the mountain.
How does Aldana match up with the women’s MMA GOAT?
Get ready to watch a striking battle. Aldana is a fighter who prides herself on her boxing, footwork and power. She’s a technical fighter on the feet, both offensively and defensively.
When she’s throwing her straights (jab and cross), they’re snappy; when she’s throwing her hooks or uppercuts, they are tight. No wasted motion. And after throwing those strikes, her hands come right back to her face, leaving little room to be countered. That technicality will help her against Nunes, who tends to punch wide.
Aldana also does well mixing in heavy leg kicks. Those could play in her favor against Nunes, who has shown improved mobility in recent years. The best way to slow down a quick opponent is to take the legs away.
Because Aldana’s game on the feet is so good, I think her ground game is underrated. As we saw against Chiasson, Aldana isn’t lacking in skill on the mat. However, she knows that her striking ability is her best asset and she does well sticking to a game plan that gives her the best chance at winning.
Where Aldana is still growing is her control in the cage. She often finds herself following her opponent around the Octagon, rather than leading the fight. Nunes is not the opponent you want to just follow around.
A simple technique to solve that would be switching stances as her opponent tries to circle out. It forces the opponent to square back up rather than “leading the dance.” Another option would be for Aldana to identify when she’s following, then cut the opponent off and force her to go in a different direction.
Nunes does well making reads early in a fight on her opponent’s timing, range and combinations. If Aldana just follows Nunes around the cage, Nunes will get a beat on it and Aldana could become easy to counter.
Although Aldana’s striking is good, she can be repetitive with her combos. While that can work (just look at her teammate, reigning UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso), it likely won’t work against someone as skilled as Nunes.
I also see Nunes utilizing her wrestling and grappling in this matchup. She has shown a willingness to mix that into her game plans more recently, and while Aldana is comfortable fighting on the mat, we’ve seen that if she grapples for extended periods, it affects her striking volume.
Aldana struggled with the bigger Chiasson on the mat in her last fight. I could see Nunes looking to shoot for takedowns if she can’t get a read on Aldana’s timing early in the fight.
Nunes is in new form; can she keep it up?
I believe Nunes is coming off the best performance of her career — a unanimous decision win over Peña at UFC 277 to reclaim the division title.
After losing to Peña, Nunes appeared in rare form in the rematch. She showed her pace, range, timing and countering were on point. Once she finds her range and timing, she’s seemingly unstoppable. If she can do that against Aldana, Aldana could be in for a long night because of the repetitiveness in her combos.
The difference between this matchup and Nunes’ last two fights will be the striking of Aldana, which is considerably better than Peña’s.
Against Peña, Nunes was able to sit in the pocket and trade at times. But that strategy may not work against Aldana, who has the ability and grit to bite down on her mouthpiece and trade in those exchanges.
And we’ve never seen Aldana hurt from standing strikes. She has a great chin and heart. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Nunes be affected by strikes, including the lower-level striking of Peña.
What could swing the fight
Aldana’s biggest battle will occur before she enters the Octagon on Saturday.
She has struggled to make weight recently. She last made championship weight (135 pounds) in 2019. She’s had a couple of fights where she fought within the one-pound weight allowance (for bouts that aren’t for a title), but in her last two fights, she didn’t even make weight with the extra pound allowance. She missed weight by 3.5 pounds against Santos and missed by 1.5 pounds against Chiasson. The last time she made weight was against Holm in 2020.
There’s a real possibility Aldana could win this fight and still not walk out with the belt. It would be like we saw at UFC 274, in the lightweight title fight between then-champion Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Despite winning the fight, Oliveira missed weight by a half pound during weigh-ins and was ineligible to retain his belt.
Who has the edge?
Nunes is the favorite for a good reason. She has the great body of work and has continued to show that she can still fight at a top level. So, I’d have to lean toward Nunes getting her hand raised. But Aldana is a worthy challenger. I wouldn’t be surprised if pulls off an upset here. She has a much better chance than the odds suggest.
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