Kenya has entered the second week since confirming the first Covid-19 case, a period that may determine the fate of the country.
”Evidence from other countries indicate that the number of infected person increases dramatically in the second week following confirmation of the first case,” said Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe on Friday.
Mr Mutahi was drawing from the experience of countries such as Italy where cases rose from just three in the middle of February to 1,128 by the third week and more than 40,000 in the next four weeks.
Control measures
“Our fate depends on what we do or fail to do in the next two weeks,” said Mutahi while announcing a new raft of control measures.
But data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) suggests the ‘wait and see’ period in Kenya may be much longer than two weeks.
This is because the virus has been spreading much faster in a few hotspots including Europe, Iran, South Korea, China and the US, but much slower in the rest of the world, including Africa.
Of the about 300,000 cases reported in 182 States, only 21 countries have reported more than 1,000 cases each, with non in Africa.
The top seven most affected countries, with more than 15,000 cases each, four – Italy, Spain, Germany and France – are in Europe with the others being China, Iran and the US.
Of the 40 African countries that have cumulatively confirmed 1,106 cases, none has reported disease explosions even those infected earlier or around the same time with Italy.
For example, Egypt which reported the first case on January 26, about two weeks before Italy, has 210 cases and no explosive disease so far. Nigeria which reported the first case on February 28, almost two weeks before Kenya, has 12 cases with no major spread.
There is no evidence in Kenya, which has taken serious control measures, that the disease is about to take a different trajectory from that observed, so far, in the rest of Africa.
Explaining the low number of cases in Africa, WHO Director General Tedros Ghebreyesus has suggested the continent may not be doing enough testing.
Going undetected
But WHO’s chief in Africa Matshidiso Moeti has doubted that large numbers of infected people are going undetected in the continent despite shortage of kits and medical infrastructure.
Kagwe has also been emphatic they have been meticulous in tracing all contacts of infected cases and unlikely to have missed any huge cache of positive cases.
Prof Jeremy Rossman of the University of Kent, UK, says it is not only Africa that is reporting few Covid-19 cases but majority of the world’s 192 countries, including Russia, which has close contact with China. Only 253 cases have been reported in Russia and no deaths.
“There is a range of explanation for low numbers, including weak travel connections, effective border screening and travel restrictions, local climate effects, a lack of screening or a lack of reporting,” says Rossman.
He also suggests the disease may still take a different, yet unknown trajectory and countries should prepare for any surprises.
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