The women’s bantamweight title will be on the line when Amanda Nunes and Julianna Peña meet inside the Octagon for a second time, in the main event of UFC 277 at American Airlines Center in Dallas this Saturday (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET., with prelims on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET).
Peña (12-4) is the reigning champ after pulling off one of the biggest upsets in the promotion’s history when she beat Nunes last December.
Nunes (21-5) is arguably the greatest women’s fighter of all time. Before her loss to Peña at UFC 269, she was on a 12-fight win streak, including nine title fights across two divisions. She remains the women’s featherweight champion.
Former UFC fighter and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson breaks down the women’s bantamweight fight. Anderson fought Nunes for the featherweight title in March 2021.
How did we get here
The first fight between these two women was a roller coaster. After controlling Peña through the latter half of the first round, Nunes was sluggish in Round 2 when she tapped via rear-naked choke. But, there’s more to the story.
Entering this fight, Nunes’ past two title defenses were in the featherweight division against Felicia Spencer in 2020 and me in 2021. That’s important because Nunes is big for the women’s bantamweight division. So, cutting down to featherweight at 145 pounds is likely an easier task for her. I think her body could have gotten used to not having to shed those 10 extra pounds to cut to make weight at bantamweight. Those 10 extra pounds make a big difference because a bad weight cut going into a fight can impact your performance inside the Octagon.
When I found out about my fight with Holly Holm in 2018, I was told 11 weeks ahead of the fight. At that time, I weighed 176 pounds and had to get down to 145 pounds. By the week of the fight, I was able to cut only 13 pounds — meaning, to make weight, I had an additional 18 pounds to lose during the week of the fight. That’s probably very similar to the cut Nunes has to go through to make weight at bantamweight.
In a bad weight cut, cutting too much weight in a short amount of time can send your body into overdrive and affect cardio and hydration. That can be reflected in a fighter’s performance in the cage. If the fighter can’t recover properly from the cut, it could also lead to them being “punchy” or more affected by shots that wouldn’t hurt you under normal circumstances.
With that knowledge, this fight is giving me the same vibes I got from the Rose Namajunas vs. Jonna Jedrzejczyk pair of fights. In the first fight, Jedrzejczyk appeared sluggish and was knocked out midway through Round 1. Leading up to the rematch, she spoke about how a rough cut to make weight in the first fight led to her feeling out of sorts for the fight. When she had a smoother cut in the rematch, she had a much better performance, as the fight went the distance. It feels like we could see something similar from Nunes here.
In addition to making the weight cut down to 135 pounds for the first time in nearly two years, Nunes also tested positive for COVID-19 during her camp leading up to that fight. Although I haven’t heard much about her experience with the virus, we’ve seen athletes speak out about how it impacted their performance long after recovering.
Following a stare-down with Peña on Season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter, Nunes said, “This time I will be 100 percent.” She could have been referring to either a bad weight cut or complications with COVID-19.
Can Peña shock the world again?
I expect Peña to come with a similar game plan to what we saw in the first fight. I think she will look to force the grappling. The wrestling — in between the striking and grappling — can work in Peña’s favor. She should constantly be wrestling and making Nunes carry her weight. The up and down, or consistently making Nunes work her way back to her feet after being taken down, could allow Peña to wear her down.
The best way to describe Peña’s fight style is that she does not go away. She is constantly in your face and will never stop coming forward. That’s what she did well in the first fight, which allowed her to capitalize on Nunes’ mistakes.
As a striker, Peña’s game is still developing for her style — which is using it as a tool to set up the takedown. It’s not the best in the division, but it certainly works for her in most fights. However, the strategy didn’t work against Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie, her only losses since making her UFC debut.
Peña is very good at keeping a tight top control. She doesn’t give her opponents much space to get back up or reverse position. And, she’s very technical on the ground.
It might sound weird, but it’s like surfing. For example, I believe Luke Rockhold might be the most underrated grappler and wrestler in the middleweight division. I would say that comes from how much surfing he does. That balance of being able to flow and keep a heavy top control on the mat comes from that. I don’t know if Peña surfs at all, but the flow and control she has on the mat is reminiscent of that.
Even when she is fighting off her back, Peña is very composed. She makes smart in-fight decisions that are important — that shows her experience. Peña might not have as many fights or as much Octagon time as Nunes, but she has been doing this just as long. Peña started training for MMA in 2008, and her first amateur fight was in 2009.
Nunes needs to silence the critics
Prepare to see a different version of Amanda Nunes on Saturday. On top of her improved health for this fight, she has made changes revolving around her training and her camp. Nunes no longer trains at American Top Team, and she has opened her private gym to work with some of her former coaches and training partners. I think those types of changes can be beneficial sometimes.
If Nunes fights at “100 percent,” I would say that she has an advantage as a striker against Peña.
When I fought Nunes, one thing my team and I trained for (that I still ended up getting hit with, even though I knew it was coming) was a unique overhand right she likes to throw. Rather than throwing it from a traditional angle, hers is more vertical, similar to a hammer fist. If it lands, it hits just below the ear on the side of the neck and throws your whole body for a loop. I noticed Nunes didn’t throw that strike in the first fight. I expect her to try to mix that into her game plan this time.
As seen in her fight against Shevchenko, Nunes has shown the ability to counterstrike. She moves well and is willing to be patient in picking her shots. Last fight aside, Nunes doesn’t leave herself open for her opponents to land many shots. She is usually pretty sound defensively.
Even as a grappler, she has good takedown defense and is strong on top. Nunes is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt — she’s no slouch on the ground. She hit me with a modified triangle choke, then finished with an armbar. Pulling that off in the Octagon takes serious talent against any opponent. With her combination of skills, there shouldn’t be a spot where Nunes would have a disadvantage in this fight.
What could swing the fight
Keep an eye out for both of these fighters’ cardio as the fight continues. I think this fight will go into the championship rounds this time, and that raises some questions.
One thing that’s always been a question about Nunes is her conditioning, even though she has gone the distance in four of her 10 title fights. I would say her fight with Cat Zingano is when people started talking about it. That fight with Zingano in 2014, the last bout Nunes lost before her loss to Peña last year, was the last time somebody tested her ability to defend takedowns continually, then strike, then defend takedowns again, over and over. No one since then has forced Nunes into those deep waters of the up-and-down cardio.
We’ve never seen Peña fight in the championship rounds. We don’t know how she will hold up if the fight passes Round 3 because she has to keep up the pace if she wants to win. Keeping pace will be very taxing for her, but I think the longer the fight goes, the more it will play into Peña’s favor.
Who has the upper hand?
There’s so much on the line for both fighters. For Nunes, she’ll want to prove the previous fight was just a fluke. And for Peña, she’ll want to prove that it wasn’t.
I believe Nunes should have an advantage anywhere this fight goes. If Nunes walks in the Octagon 100 percent, there shouldn’t be a spot where she should be at a disadvantage in this fight. But, Peña is relentless. She comes to fight, isn’t going to back down and will push Nunes every second of this fight. Anything can happen.
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