This Saturday presents a double dip for fight fans as Bellator’s welterweight title will be put on the line in Dublin, while the UFC will showcase two rising stars in the main event of their light heavyweight division at the UFC Apex.
Bellator MMA welterweight champion, Yaroslav Amosov, will return to the cage after a 20-month layoff to battle current interim champion Logan Storley at Bellator 291 in Dublin, Ireland. Amosov, ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, decided to pause his MMA career to return to Ukraine and defend his country in the war against Russia. Storley, unranked by ESPN, will get his rematch after suffering a loss to Amosov at Bellator 252 in Nov. 2020. Amosov would defeat Douglas Lima by unanimous decision to win the welterweight title in June 2021.
The UFC takes the reins during the evening hours in Nevada. Nikita Krylov, ranked No. 9 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, has won two fights in a row, including a performance of the night win over Alexander Gustafsson in July 2022. Ryan Spann, unranked by ESPN, is also riding a two-fight winning streak, including a performance of the night win over Ion Cutelaba in May 2022.
Who has the edge in the Bellator and UFC main events? Brett Okamoto spoke to Combat Sports Academy coach Kirian Fitzgibbons to get his perspective on Saturday’s main events. In addition, ESPN’s betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker offer their picks for both main events and the best bets on the UFC Fight Night card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity
Bellator welterweight title: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Logan Storley
Kirian Fitzgibbons, Combat Sports Academy
How Amosov wins: If Amosov wins, I see it happening similar to their last fight when he won by split decision in 2020. He was the more technical striker when they fought, as Storley couldn’t get the takedowns he needed. He won that fight fair and square and landed the bigger shots. Amosov has been out for nearly two years because of the war in Ukraine. Hopefully, there’s no ring rust, so he can prove to be the better defensive wrestler, stop Storley’s takedowns and take advantage of him gassing out in the later rounds from those failed efforts.
How Storley wins: I see definitive improvements in Storley’s striking and energy use when looking for takedowns. His work with his coaches and training partners in that area shows. Amosov is the betting favorite, but Storley’s confidence is a factor. While Amosov has been inactive, Storley has run up three wins and an interim championship. If he can land a few more power shots and doesn’t force the wrestling, he can do better than he did in the first fight.
X-Factor: Amosov’s time off. If he can stop the takedown again, Storley’s frustration will show. But with that much time off, we don’t know what Amosov we’ll see on fight night.
Prediction: Storley by decision
Betting analysis: Amosov vs. Storley
Parker: Amosov to win. Amosov, even with the time off, sits as an almost 2-1 favorite against Storley. Amosov will be the better striker of the two, and as long as he can defend the wrestling of Storley, I don’t see how he loses this fight. Storley is an excellent wrestler, but in his last fight against Michael Page, he didn’t do much other than hold Page down for five rounds. I don’t see that happening here against Amosov, who has impeccable takedown defense. Amosov will dictate the narrative of this fight and retain his title after the layoff.
Light Heavyweight: Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
Kirian Fitzgibbons, Combat Sports Academy
How Krylov wins: A big key will be movement, fakes and feints. Spann has the power advantage, as he has the nuclear option with both hands. Krylov is an outstanding striker with improved wrestling who can weather the early storm and use his footwork to shut down Spann’s pressure. If he can endure that early storm in a five-round fight, he’ll have an opportunity to have his way in the later rounds.
How Spann wins: Spann’s explosiveness and power advantage. He needs to take it to Krylov immediately and carry that confidence of his previous early finishes. If he stays back and plays into Krylov’s kicking range, it could be a long night for him — especially after the first two rounds. If I’m in his corner, we’ve worked on his endurance for a five-round fight because he tends to slow down if he doesn’t get a finish. I want to ensure the gas tank is full so that he can put pressure and crash Krylov’s space for five rounds. If you play into his karate style early, he has good timing, and that’s trouble.
X-Factor: The low-hanging fruit is Spann’s power. He can put your lights out. But in addition to that, I’ll say Spann’s cardio. It could be the difference if he has addressed that potential hole in his game and can carry that nuclear option past the first round.
Prediction: Krylov by finish
Betting analysis: Krylov vs. Spann
Kuhn: Dog or pass. Krylov’s ground game initially offered some value in a tight betting line. Though he’s no stranger to a slugfest, his ground game differentiates him from his opponent. Krylov spends much more time controlling opponents on the ground, and Spann’s sub-par takedown defense probably won’t preclude him from getting held down, or worse, set up for submissions.
But Krylov’s prices have slowly climbed, and his reckless striking defense becomes more of a liability given Spann’s size and proven knockdown power. The combination of precise and powerful striking against Krylov’s poor defense presents a clear path to victory for Spann.
There could be a price swing closer to fight time, but Krylov, as a mild favorite, seems appropriately priced. Still, plenty of finishing potential exists if you want to use a high limit under of 3.5 rounds in parlays.
Parker: Krylov to win. From what we have seen so far, if Spann doesn’t get the finish early in the fight, he gasses himself out and gets finished. He has also put himself in plenty of poor positions in fights, showing his lack of experience against higher-level fighters. His opponent will be a real test to gauge his place amongst the best in MMA. Comparatively, the 30-year-old Krylov has fought the division’s best in the last five years. In a five-round fight, I am going with Krylov. Krylov consistently follows his game plan, showing his high fighter IQ. If he can avoid the power of Spann and drag him into deep waters, Krylov should win.
Best bets on the rest of UFC Fight Night card
Women’s Flyweight: Tatiana Suarez vs. Montana De La Rosa
Parker: Suarez inside the distance. After 1300+ days away from the octagon, the highly talented Suarez will return to the cage as she takes on Montana De La Rosa. This matchup for Suarez is as ideal as it gets for her return. We last saw Suarez use her grappling to get it done against Nina Nunes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she goes back to the well with her wrestling against De La Rosa. De La Rosa is tough, has a no-quit attitude, and is very crafty with her BJJ. However, Suarez is a beast, and her top pressure will likely not allow Montana to do anything other than try to survive to the end of the third round.
Heavyweight: Augusto Sakai vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Kuhn: Sakai to win (-145). Sakai is on a brutal four-fight losing streak, but a closer look reveals he’s faced top talent, especially in striking. In this matchup, he’ll take on an average striker in Mayes, and finally, Sakai might be back in thttps://newszetu.com/who-will-succeed-khabib-as-king-of-the-lightweights/he pilot seat.
Though Mayes is likelier to take the fight down, his ground game is more of an afterthought, and he’s spent most of his time on the feet so far. If he makes a willing dance partner, Sakai’s superior precision and defense should mean he gets the best of exchanges in an otherwise close matchup.
Catchweight (130 lb): Charles Johnson vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Parker: Johnson to win. Osbourne has been finished in three of his last six UFC fights. Meanwhile, Johnson is riding a two-fight win streak since his UFC debut and has never been finished in his MMA career. Johnson is the better fighter anywhere the fight goes, and if Osbourne can’t land that KO punch, I don’t see him outgrappling Johnson or getting a submission off his back. Johnson is an outstanding wrestler who makes intelligent decisions once the fight hits the floor. Johnson’s striking will be enough to win here, but if he needs to lean on his wrestling, he can keep Osbourne’s power a non-threat.
Middleweight: Andre Muniz vs. Brendan Allen
Kuhn: Lean Muniz (-190). It’s a grappler versus grappler matchup for the co-main event. And because styles make fights, it’s easy to side with the better grappler. Allen has seen success on the ground in the past, but this matchup pits him against an elite grappler with much better performance stats to date.
Allen may be the busier standup striker, but his 45% takedown defense won’t last long if he tries to flex that position. Muniz is quick to get the fight to the ground, and once there, he can find his way back to control and unleash a variety of submissions. We might expect Allen’s ground experience to help him survive the first submission attempts, but he will still lose rounds if he can’t stuff takedowns or get Muniz off his back.
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