Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru lead in 9.9 million population rise

Nairobi led a group of highly urbanised counties that registered the highest population growth in the 10 years ended August, according to the published results of the latest national census.

The population count established that the number of Kenyans rose by 9.9 million to reach 47.6 million in 2019 compared to 37.7 million in 2009.

Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru and Kajiado counties alone added 3.1 million people, accounting for a third of the population increase, reflecting the flow of people in search of jobs, housing and education to the big towns.

The census data will have major implications on sharing of resources given that population has the heaviest weighting in the formula used by the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) to determine what each devolved unit of government gets from the national government.

It will also influence the planned review of electoral boundaries, especially wards and constituencies, making the census a political issue.

The 2009 census was conducted before the establishment of counties but the government later republished the statistics at the regional governments’ level, making the comparisons possible.

The reproduced data shows a higher total population size of 38.1 million or 400,000 more Kenyans.

Nairobi added 1.3 million people, taking the capital city’s population to 4.3 million and represents a percentage growth of 42.8 percent over the 10 years.

This has seen the county’s high density rise even further to 6,247 people per square kilometre, sparking a rally in rent and land prices as more people scramble for the resources.

Nairobi has the smallest average household size of 2.9, indicating that the county’s population explosion is partly driven by an influx of people from rural areas in search of education and job opportunities.

The other highly urbanised counties also showed a similar pattern of relatively smaller average household sizes but fast population growths.

Kiambu, which was second after adding 814,335 people to reach 2.4 million, has a household size of three.

Nakuru followed after its numbers rose by 596,202 to 2.1 million people, with the size of households averaging 3.5.

Kajiado’s population rose by 440,840 to reach 1.1 million people and ended with an average household size of 3.5.

The most urbanised counties have seen their population rise the most both in absolute and percentage terms, thanks to a mix of rural-urban migration and births among long-term residents.

Nairobi has long been the most attractive county for diverse groups of people, due to its status as the administrative capital and the host of numerous manufacturing and service sector employers.

Kiambu and Kajiado are considered offshoots of Nairobi where a massive concentration of capital and people has forced workers and businesses to seek relatively more affordable land and houses in the adjacent counties.

The creation of counties in 2013 was partly meant to address the problems of development imbalance that has seen cities and towns, for instance, hog most of the infrastructure, including roads, hospitals and electricity networks.

A recent survey found that the most urbanised counties are also the richest, accounting for most of the economic output.

Nairobi, Nakuru and Kiambu are ranked as Kenya’s top-three richest counties while Lamu, Samburu and Isiolo are the poorest, according to the report by Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

Nairobi, with a contribution of 21.7 percent to the overall gross domestic product (GDP), is by far Kenya’s richest county and is more than three-and-a-half times larger in economic terms than Nakuru, the second-richest county with a 6.1 percent share of the GDP.

Kiambu (5.5 percent), Mombasa (4.7 percent) and Machakos (3.2 percent) complete the list of Kenya’s top five wealthiest counties in GDP terms.

In the latest census, Mandera was the only county to register a decline, with its population shrinking by 155,643 to 867,457.

The remaining counties saw their numbers rise by a range of between 13,576 and 355,087. The census data will have major implications on sharing of resources.

Population size has the heaviest weighting in the formula used by the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) to determine what each devolved unit of government gets from the national government.

Population has 45 percent weighting, followed by basic equal share (26 percent), poverty levels (18 percent), land area (eight percent), fiscal responsibility (two percent) and development factor (one percent).

These factors have seen Nairobi receive the lion’s share, equivalent to five percent of the total pot allocated to counties, followed by Turkana, which takes about 3.4 percent of the pie.