Which NBA free agents can offer teams the most help over the next three seasons?
To try to answer that question statistically, I’ve put together three-year projections for all of this year’s free agents based on two factors:
- Box-score projections from my SCHOENE system, which utilizes the development of similar players at the same age
- Luck-adjusted RAPM from NBAshotcharts.com, which measures how much players have helped their teams’ net ratings over the past three seasons after accounting for their teammates and opponents
The two components cover both ways of capturing player value, directly from box-score stats and indirectly from their team impact.
Some of the results confirm conventional wisdom, including the top two free agents on the market. Others are more surprising. Let’s take a look at my top 20 projections for NBA free agency.
1. Kawhi Leonard
LA Clippers
Forward
Player option
Projected WAR: 35.8
Multiple extensions signed in the past year have left Leonard as the lone superstar potentially part of this year’s free agent market. He could still join them by exercising his $36 million player option and signing an extension off of that, which would maximize the number of years of guaranteed salary he could get this summer as my colleague Bobby Marks has explained. However, Leonard could maximize his salary for 2021-22 (up to a projected $39.3 million) by hitting free agency even if he intends to re-sign with the Clippers.
Note that Leonard’s WARP projection does not yet reflect his likely absence for the start of the 2021-22 season after ACL surgery, although he’d still have the top three-year projection as long as he plays more than a handful of games next season.
2. Chris Paul
Phoenix Suns
Guard
Player option
Projected WAR: 23.1
Like Leonard, Paul has a handful of options for how to play out this summer. He could pick up his $44.2 million option and negotiate an extension with the Suns starting in 2022-23 or decline the option and sign a longer deal with more total guaranteed money but a smaller 2021-22 salary. Either way, this looks like the last big payday for Paul, who at age 36 is coming off a run to the NBA Finals during his first year in Phoenix.
3. Lonzo Ball
New Orleans Pelicans
Guard
Restricted
Projected WAR: 21.2
After developing his 3-point game during his two years in New Orleans (making 38% of his 3s while attempting 8.3 per game in 2020-21), Ball shoots to the top of the group of free agents who have a more realistic chance of changing teams. At 23, Ball will be an interesting option for teams that want a point guard coming into his prime rather than the more accomplished veterans on the market — particularly if the Pelicans signal they may not match an offer sheet.
4. John Collins
Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Restricted
Projected WAR: 19.3
Although Collins has a slightly better projection for the 2021-22 season, he slots in slightly behind Ball because players similar to him did not continue to increase their value in future campaigns. Based on their run to the conference finals, the Hawks should be just fine if Collins continues to play at the same level. His development into a defender capable of more than holding his own at power forward in the playoffs was a pleasant surprise.
5. Kyle Lowry
Toronto Raptors
Guard
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 19.2
With the Raptors likely to select a guard at No. 4 in the draft, Lowry might be the best gettable unrestricted free agent on the market. At 35, he remains an efficient scorer and quality playmaker. A three-year deal carries some risk of Lowry aging out of a starting role on the back end, but would certainly be worth it for a team with immediate championship aspirations.
6. Devonte’ Graham
Charlotte Hornets
Guard
Restricted
Projected WAR: 18.4
A second-round pick in 2018, Graham hits restricted free agency after two seasons of shooting better than 37% from 3-point range while providing sure-handed ballhandling at point guard. At 26, Graham’s next contract should take him through his prime years.
7. Duncan Robinson
Miami Heat
Guard/Forward
Restricted
Projected WAR: 16.3
One of the NBA’s premier sharpshooters (his 520 3-pointers over the past two seasons rank second in the NBA in that span, per Stathead.com), Robinson has particularly excelled in terms of his RAPM impact. Over the past three years, his plus-2.8 rating ranks seventh among free agents and nearly all of the players ahead of him are in their 30s. At 27, Robinson should retain his value throughout his next contract.
8. Mike Conley
Utah Jazz
Guard
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 14.8
At age 33, Conley is coming off his overdue first All-Star appearance, but the question is how long he can keep playing at this level. My projections have him fourth in 2021-22 value among free agents (behind Leonard, Paul and Lowry) but declining in value nearly by half through 2023-24. As a result, Conley is the clear third-best veteran point guard on the market, though he should still find enough interest to leverage the Jazz into paying up to retain him.
9. Mitchell Robinson
New York Knicks
Center
Team option
Projected WAR: 14.8
The Knicks have an interesting decision to make this week on Robinson’s $1.8 million team option. Although Robinson would surely make more next season, declining his option would make him a restricted free agent and allow New York to work out a long-term deal without the risk of losing him as an unrestricted free agent next summer. Alternatively, the Knicks could pick up Robinson’s option and use some of their cap space to renegotiate his salary upward as part of an extension.
10. Evan Fournier
Boston Celtics
Guard
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 14.0
After averaging a career-high 19.7 PPG with the Orlando Magic before last season’s trade deadline, Fournier never quite seemed comfortable in Boston, a process that was slowed when he missed two-plus weeks in the NBA’s health and safety protocols shortly after arriving. Dealing Kemba Walker for Al Horford and Moses Brown gives the Celtics more flexibility to re-sign Fournier and give him a longer period to acclimate.
11. Kelly Oubre Jr.
Golden State Warriors
Guard/Forward
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 13.9
Oubre’s time with the Warriors got off to a rough start, as he shot 7-of-51 (13%) from 3 in the season’s first 10 games. From that point onward, Oubre was more or less his usual self, although the fit was still awkward. Golden State went 12-5 in games Oubre missed and now gets back Klay Thompson at shooting guard, making it unclear whether the Warriors would want to pay heavily in luxury tax to bring him back.
12. Danny Green
Philadelphia 76ers
Guard/Forward
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 13.7
Green has played for four teams during the past four seasons, two of which won championships (the 2018-19 Raptors and 2019-20 Lakers) and a third that was the No. 1 seed in its conference (last season’s Sixers). Clearly, his 3-and-D skill set fits well alongside star teammates. At 34, Green could be headed for a smaller role by the end of his next contract but is likely to remain useful.
13. Jarrett Allen
Cleveland Cavaliers
Center
Restricted
Projected WAR: 12.8
After sending Allen to Cleveland as part of the James Harden trade, the Brooklyn Nets never found another center who could match his combination of high-percentage finishing and rim protection. Playing without All-Stars to set him up, Allen was less efficient as a member of the Cavaliers but still shot 61% from the field and outplayed incumbent starter Andre Drummond.
14. Gary Trent Jr.
Toronto Raptors
Guard
Restricted
Projected WAR: 12.8
In a convenient bit of symmetry, Trent appears directly above Norman Powell in the projections after the two similar wings were swapped for each other at the deadline. Trent comes out ahead over the next three years because he’s younger (22 as compared to 28 for Powell) and has the superior RAPM rating. Although Trent could be a target for teams with cap space, a return to the Raptors seems likely.
15. Norman Powell
Portland Trail Blazers
Guard/Forward
Player option
Projected WAR: 11.6
The Blazers presumably preferred Powell because he’s the better player now — projected for nearly one more WAR in 2021-22 — and a better fit defending bigger opponents alongside Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Portland’s starting lineup with Powell ranked third among all lineups leaguewide that played more than 300 minutes with a plus-13.4 net rating, meaning re-signing him will surely be a priority for the Blazers.
16. DeMar DeRozan
San Antonio Spurs
Forward
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 11.5
On a one-year deal, teams can still expect high-caliber starting play from DeRozan, who will turn 32 in August and averaged a career-high 6.9 APG last season. Similar players — including Richard Hamilton, who was out of the league by age 35 — experienced a sharp decline in value in their mid-30s.
17. Victor Oladipo
Miami Heat
Guard
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 11.4
This projection doesn’t factor in the time Oladipo will surely miss after May surgery to repair his right quadriceps tendon. The doctor who performed the surgery, orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jonathan Glashow, told our Adrian Wojnarowski he’s optimistic Oladipo could be cleared to return to full-contact basketball as soon as November. It’s tough to know what to expect from Oladipo when he returns since he was hampered by the injury the past two seasons. His RAPM (plus-2.0) remained strong but Oladipo’s box-score stats declined substantially.
18. Enes Kanter
Portland Trail Blazers
Center
Unrestricted
Projected WAR: 10.8
Kanter’s defensive limitations were on full display in the playoffs, when he had a tough time dealing with the Denver Nuggets‘ pick-and-roll attack. Before that, Kanter helped the Blazers survive the absence of starting center Jusuf Nurkic thanks to his stout offensive rebounding and high-percentage finishing. As a result, Kanter rates as an above-average contributor by RAPM (plus-1.5) in addition to more impressive box-score stats than fellow free agents Andre Drummond and Richaun Holmes.
19. Spencer Dinwiddie
Brooklyn Nets
Guard
Player option
Projected WAR: 10.3
A partial ACL tear suffered in the season’s third game sidelined Dinwiddie the remainder of the campaign, though he was cleared to return to basketball activities after the Nets were eliminated from the playoffs. If healthy, Dinwiddie could easily beat this projection, which is based on the 21.3 MPG he averaged in 2020-21 in part due to the injury suffered early in the third quarter. The previous season, Dinwiddie started 49 of the 64 games he played and averaged 31.2 MPG.
20. Derrick Jones Jr.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forward
Player option
Projected WAR: 10.0
Jones may pick up his $9.7 million player option rather than testing free agency after a season that he began as a starter but ended out of Portland’s rotation. The Blazers viewed Jones as a 3-and-D forward, a role in which his 32% 3-point shooting on low volume (3.7 attempts per 36 minutes) was a major shortcoming. I think he’s more effective as a power forward despite standing just 6-foot-5 because of a reported 7-foot wingspan and the leaping ability that allowed Jones to win the 2020 Slam Dunk Contest.
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