What have we seen from Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren during his first game action since last summer?
Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2022 draft, missed his entire first NBA season after suffering a Lisfranc injury in August while participating in the Crawsover Pro-Am. After 10 months of rehab, Holmgren returned to the court to play two games in the Salt Lake City summer league and two more so far in the NBA 2K24 Summer League in Las Vegas.
Over that span, Holmgren has nearly averaged a double-double (19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds) while also adding 3.7 blocks per game. We’ve seen a little rust in his 3-point shooting (1-of-11) and 15 turnovers in the three games he’s played.
Besides a stubbly beard, what else has changed since we saw Holmgren on the court a year ago? Let’s break down how Holmgren has performed and what it means for an Oklahoma City team that adds him to a rising group that went 40-42 last season in his absence.
Putting the ball on the ground
Like this year’s No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama — against whom he faced off in the 2021 FIBA U19 championship game — Holmgren distinguishes himself from other centers with his ability to handle the ball.
Over the course of the summer, Holmgren had success getting from behind the 3-point line to the rim off the dribble — something few centers are comfortable doing. Against the host Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City, he up-faked defender Micah Potter above the arc and drove past him before finishing with a smooth left-hand layup.
I also liked a play where Holmgren caught the ball on the left wing above the 3-point lane against the Dallas Mavericks in Vegas and decoyed a dribble handoff. Holmgren got into the paint and finished off balance against a contest.
The key for Holmgren is avoiding crowds of defenders who can take advantage of how high his dribble needs to be off the ground. He got stripped clean multiple times this summer and pointed that out as an area for improvement to reporters in Salt Lake City.
“I’ve just got to recognize that sooner and understand to get off the ball,” Holmgren said, “Play action on the opposite side, just figure out something other than drive through two people.”
Shooting slump
For Holmgren to maximize his ability to drive against hard closeouts, he must keep defenders honest with his shooting. That was the biggest negative from Holmgren’s first summer to his second. After making four 3-pointers in his opening game of 2022 in Salt Lake City, finishing with eight in five games. Holmgren has hit just once beyond the arc this summer.
I’ve often found that long-range shooting accuracy is the last thing to come back for players who miss an extended period of time because of injury. Holmgren acknowledged that shooting was the biggest challenge.
“You can’t really replace game rhythm without playing,” Holmgren said after his first game this summer. “It’s something I’m still getting used to again but I feel like it’s moving along.”
In particular, I’d like to see Holmgren focus on getting the base of his shot back where it was a year ago. Watching him shoot from beyond the arc, he feels less balanced and leans more toward the basket rather than going straight up.
Fortunately, the Thunder have one of the league’s most renowned shooting teachers in former longtime San Antonio Spurs assistant coach Chip Engelland, who should help Holmgren dial things back in. Holmgren will have the rest of the summer in the gym to work on getting back to where he was coming out of Gonzaga, where he shot 39% from the shorter NCAA 3-point line.
The combination of shooting and passing should allow Holmgren to play power forward at times in Oklahoma City, but will make the Thunder’s offense especially dangerous when they go five-out with him at center. That’s a role Aleksej Pokusevski and Eugene Omoruyi filled last season, but Holmgren offers a dramatic defensive upgrade over those players.
Stronger board work
The biggest area of statistical improvement for Holmgren from last summer was on the glass. He recorded a pair of double-doubles in four games and fell one rebound shy in the other two, averaging precisely 9.8 RPG — up from 8.4 in summer league play a year ago.
Holmgren might have benefited from playing with 2022 Oklahoma City second-round pick Jaylin Williams at times. Williams started 36 games as a rookie in Holmgren’s absence. Among players who saw at least 500 minutes last season, just two (Isaiah Hartenstein and Larry Nance Jr.) surpassed Williams’ 2.8 defensive box outs per 36 minutes according to NBA Advanced Stats tracking.
Beyond that, while Holmgren remains one of the league’s skinniest players, he has evidently added strength over the past year. That helped him maintain an inside rebounding position against bigger opponents like Kenneth Lofton Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas lottery pick Dereck Lively II.
The ability for Holmgren to control the glass will be particularly important for the Thunder. Oklahoma City ranked 29th in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage last season while frequently playing four-guard lineups with Lu Dort and Rookie of the Year runner-up Jalen Williams as the nominal forwards. Rebounding was by far the biggest weakness on what was an average defense overall.
No matter how long Holmgren has been out, there’s never any question about his ability to upgrade Oklahoma City’s rim protection. He’s blocked 14 shots in four games, slightly surpassing last summer’s average of 2.8 BPG. If Holmgren can also help the Thunder rebound better, this has a chance to be a top-10 defense with the potential to grow into that range on offense too.
On Wednesday, Caesars Sportsbook released opening win total over/unders for the 2023-24 season. With Holmgren’s return, Oklahoma City’s line started at 43.5 wins, tied for sixth-best in the Western Conference alongside the Los Angeles Lakers — who got to the conference finals a year ago.
This offseason’s modest moves utilizing cap space to move up in the NBA draft for Kentucky guard Cason Wallace and to add second-round picks indicate the Thunder are still building slowly around a young core that also includes All-NBA first team pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nonetheless, a healthy Holmgren will make Oklahoma City a favorite to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
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