What uniform will three-time All-Star Bradley Beal be wearing when he next takes the court for an NBA game?
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Beal has decided to undergo surgery to repair a left wrist ligament injury that has sidelined him since Jan. 29, which will end his 2021-22 campaign. Since Beal holds a player option for 2022-23 and can be an unrestricted free agent, that could bring his time with the Washington Wizards to a conclusion.
With Beal out for the season, any remaining possibility of Washington working a trade before Thursday’s deadline seems out the window. So the Wizards are going to count on Beal’s longstanding loyalty to the franchise and their ability to offer more money than any other team.
Meanwhile, losing Beal for this season derails Washington’s efforts to secure a spot in the play-in tournament, which had already been losing steam since a surprising 10-3 start. With the Wizards having lost eight of their last nine games, how should they approach the trade deadline now?
Let’s break down all the implications of Beal’s decision to have wrist surgery.
Breaking down Beal’s free agency
After signing a two-year extension back in October 2019, Beal has been adamant to the media he doesn’t plan to do so this time around. Instead, Beal wants to test unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career at age 28. Does that mean leaving Washington?
Not necessarily. The Wizards still have the advantage of being able to pay Beal the most money using Bird rights. As a 10-year veteran, he’ll be eligible to sign a max contract starting at a projected $42.35 million (based on the revised cap estimate of $121 million for 2022-23). Washington can give up five years with an 8% annual raise for a total of $245.6 million.
If Beal decides to go elsewhere, the most he could make signing with another team would be a four-year deal with 5% annual raises for a total of $182.1 million. However, with few teams holding cap space, Beal is more likely to change teams via trade. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks pointed out, that opens a scenario where Beal could pick up his $36.4 million player option as a precursor to a trade.
In the opt-in and trade scenario, Beal would potentially make $41.9 million next season — his player option plus a 15% trade bonus. Because of limitations on extensions after trades, Beal would have to wait six months to extend with his new team. He could then add four years starting at the 2023-24 max (projected at $43.7 million) for a total of $228 million over five years, which could increase if the 2023-24 cap comes in higher than expected.
To some extent, that scenario mitigates the risk Washington has taken by not trading Beal now. If he decides to leave this summer, it will almost certainly require a trade, which would return some value to the Wizards. When Chris Paul left the LA Clippers via an opt-in and trade to the Houston Rockets in 2018, the Clippers got back a package featuring Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams. Harrell and Williams went on to win the Sixth Man Award in back-to-back years for the Clippers.
Washington at the trade deadline
The Wizards have actually gone 7-6 in the 13 games Beal has missed so far this season, better than their 17-23 record with him, but it’s worth going a step deeper to look at the opponents they’ve faced in those games. Of Washington’s seven wins, just one — Feb. 2 at Philadelphia — came against a team above .500.
Adjusted for opposition and location, the Wizards have rated 4.6 points per game worse than an average team in the 13 games Beal has missed. That squares with the assumption they won’t remain competitive without their star, even during a down year for Beal. Although the Wizards are only a game behind the Atlanta Hawks for 10th, catching them and holding off the New York Knicks (a half-game back in 12th) appears unlikely.
With that in mind, Washington can be aggressive in pursuit of a trade involving Harrell, who’s had a bounce-back season for the Wizards but will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Washington’s center of the future is Daniel Gafford, who signed an extension before the season, and the Wizards will probably want to re-sign the younger Thomas Bryant.
Aside from that, Washington should probably be thinking about reshaping the roster in a way that would both appeal to Beal and position the team for a potential future without him. That could mean trading guard Spencer Dinwiddie, whose fit with Beal in the backcourt hasn’t proved as strong as hoped when the Wizards acquired him last summer.
Because Dinwiddie’s catch-and-shoot 3-point accuracy hasn’t held up since his days in Brooklyn (he’s making 34% of those attempts this season, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats), he’s been slightly less efficient while spending more time spotting up alongside Beal. Dinwiddie has been more valuable with Beal on the bench, ramping up his usage rate to 24% of Washington’s plays and nearly doubling his assist rate.
If the Wizards can find a taker for Dinwiddie in exchange for more of a pass-first playmaker who is also a spot-up threat, that could appeal to Beal. Alternatively, Washington could dangle some young talent in pursuit of a consolidation trade. If 2019 lottery pick Rui Hachimura retains value, dealing him could make sense given the 24-year-old Hachimura has yet to make much progress since earning All-Rookie Second Team honors.
Certainly, this isn’t an easy spot for the Wizards. Dealing Russell Westbrook for a pair of starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma, plus Harrell and the ability to take in Dinwiddie via sign-and-trade) has made Washington a deeper team, but one still a cut below the top 10 teams in the Eastern Conference. And unless recent lottery picks Hachimura and Deni Avdija take surprising steps forward, it’s unclear how internal development will get the Wizards back in the mix.
As a result, Washington is going to have to enjoy lottery luck or make more strong trades to help convince Beal that he can win in D.C.
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