When NFL free agency approaches, there’s always plenty of chatter about what each player has accomplished and what that means for his future. Of course, establishing yourself as a valuable player matters, but it’s far from the whole story when it comes to projecting what will happen once the market opens in mid-March.
There’s one key factor that I rarely see discussed, and it means quite a bit when it comes to understanding what teams are seeing as they begin to open their wallets: scarcity. If eight teams need a starting running back and there are eight good running backs available, everything’s great. If there’s only one team in the NFL that needs a running back and eight good running backs are available, the situation is totally different, and that team is going to have much more leverage to make a different sort of offer.
Last year, we saw the top of the wide receiver class crater. With a deep talent pool at the position in free agency and wideouts eventually making up 10 of the first 60 picks in the 2021 draft, teams were willing to be patient. Will Fuller V and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who might have been able to pick up significant multiyear deals in previous years, had to settle for one-year pacts. Allen Robinson, who probably didn’t want to sign his franchise tag when it was tendered, signed it after seeing the market.
Likewise, that also informs the multiyear deals that were handed out. The four-year, $72 million deal the Giants gave Kenny Golladay after his market failed to develop looked out of place at the time and is already underwater. Curtis Samuel (Commanders) and Nelson Agholor (Patriots) didn’t offer any significant return on their pacts, worth $11 million per season. Fuller (Dolphins) and Smith-Schuster (Steelers) struggled. The best signings were Kendrick Bourne (Patriots) and Jamal Agnew (Jaguars), who signed three-year deals in the $15 million range.
As we approach free agency, let’s take a big-picture look at the deepest and thinnest positional markets. This will be players who are free agents or likely to become free agents, so I won’t be directly considering trade candidates such as Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Ridley. I’m going to split the players into a few tiers based on what their expected level of play might be over the next two to three seasons, ranging from stars to players who might be something closer to borderline starters.
I’ll start with the deepest positions and work my way toward the thinnest. I’ll begin with the clear standout market:
Deepest positions in 2022 free agency
Tight ends
Stars (1): Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
Starters (6): Tyler Conklin (Vikings), Zach Ertz (Cardinals), Gerald Everett (Seahawks), Mike Gesicki (Dolphins), Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), C.J. Uzomah (Bengals)
Regulars (17): Jordan Akins (Texans), Mo Alie-Cox (Colts), Blake Bell (Chiefs), Jared Cook (Chargers), Will Dissly (Seahawks), Eric Ebron (Steelers), Evan Engram (Giants), Anthony Firkser (Titans), O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Hayden Hurst (Falcons), Tyler Kroft (Jets), James O’Shaughnessy (Jaguars), MyCole Pruitt (Titans), Ricky Seals-Jones (Commanders), Durham Smythe (Dolphins), Geoff Swaim (Titans)
Returning from injury (2): Robert Tonyan (Packers), Maxx Williams (Cardinals)
Possible cap casualties (3): Jack Doyle (Colts), Blake Jarwin (Cowboys), Kyle Rudolph (Giants)
In a league often desperate for playable tight ends, this is arguably the deepest class of free agents at the position in NFL history. There’s a remarkable number of tight ends who would qualify as average or above-average regulars, which is going to allow teams to reshape their offenses accordingly. The Patriots had to pay above the odds to land Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith last offseason; teams will probably be able to land a similarly productive duo of tight ends at a cheaper cost this month.
What’s notable is the depth in terms of pass-catching tight ends with high-end physical traits. This market was thin enough a couple of years ago for the Bears to give Jimmy Graham a two-year, $16 million pact. Now, at least on paper, teams will be able to sort through Gesicki, Schultz, Ertz, Engram, Cook, Ebron, Dissly, Seals-Jones and Gronkowski, who was fourth in the league in yards per route run (2.25) last season. There are pass-catchers available at nearly every tier.
The question is whether the top of the market will actually arrive. Gronkowski has hinted at continuing his career without Tom Brady, but when you consider that 615 of his 621 career catches have come on passes by Brady, his future is definitely up in the air. It’s also unclear whether Gronkowski will be willing to sign at the beginning of free agency, leaving teams chasing one of the best tight ends in league history in a bind. Does a team wait in the hopes of landing Gronk, or act at the beginning of free agency to land a starter?
Gesicki, who is really a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end, might be hit with the franchise tag. The same could be true for Schultz, who has gone from backing up Blake Jarwin to a difference-maker in two seasons. Schultz ranks seventh among tight ends in receiving yards (1,423) and sixth in receiving touchdowns (12) over the past two seasons. A good chunk of that production came with Dak Prescott sidelined by injury, but he was also playing in an offense with devastating talent at wide receiver. If the Cowboys let Schultz walk, a team is going to run a big offer past him. Could he top Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews and take home a four-year, $60 million deal? And if Schultz is in line for an average salary of $15 million per year, should the Cowboys franchise him for $10.8 million and try to explore the trade market? A tag might be even more likely with Amari Cooper reportedly a cut candidate.
The other interesting element here is seeing what the flood of free agents does to the tight end market. By the three-year new money measure I use to estimate contract value, the tight end market is toward the bottom of the positional value spectrum. Only kickers, punters, fullbacks and long-snappers get paid less than similarly valued tight ends. The top of the market got a long-overdue correction when Travis Kelce and George Kittle got new deals in 2020, but the contracts for the middle class at tight end are still surprisingly cheap.
Will we see a race for the top players lead to a new salary structure, or will the sheer depth available at the position keep down contracts? It might be telling that Ian Thomas, who would have been alongside many of the rotation players listed above, signed a three-year, $16.5 million extension with the Panthers before free agency began. An average annual value of $5.5 million simply isn’t much for a full-time starter in 2022.
Teams that need to act in the tight end market
Let’s start in Jersey. The Giants and Jets are both about to lose their starters in Engram and Kroft, respectively. Both have young quarterbacks they’ve vowed to help. Engram, who was supposed to be an asset on paper, struggled to stay healthy and catch the football. It’s difficult to see him returning to New York. The Jets are set at wideout with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, so this is the logical place for them to add a third receiver for Zach Wilson.
The Titans are basically starting over at tight end, with Swaim, Firkser and Pruitt all free agents. Mike Vrabel’s team has a particular need for players at the position, given that it ran the fourth-most snaps in football with two or more tight ends on the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans brought back at least one of their tight ends and/or addressed the position in the draft, but they need to replenish a position where they usually like to operate in bulk.
In Arizona, the Cardinals have to evaluate whether their cap situation will allow them to bring back Ertz, who caught 56 passes for 574 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games after joining via trade in October. Ertz seemed to be fading over his last season-plus in Philadelphia, but the 31-year-old was seventh in receiving yards and yards per target and eighth in yards per route run after his move out West. He still looks to have enough in the tank to justify one more multiyear deal. I wonder if the Seahawks might attempt to steal a player from their divisional rivals.
Cornerbacks
Stars (2): Carlton Davis (Buccaneers), J.C. Jackson (Patriots)
Starters (7): Stephon Gilmore (Panthers), Joe Haden (Steelers), Casey Hayward Jr. (Raiders), Steven Nelson (Eagles), Patrick Peterson (Vikings), Levi Wallace (Bills), Charvarius Ward (Chiefs)
Regulars (12): Robert Alford (Cardinals), Bryce Callahan (Broncos), Justin Coleman (Dolphins), Kyle Fuller (Broncos), Chris Harris Jr. (Chargers), Donte Jackson (Panthers), Desmond King (Texans), Xavier Rhodes (Colts), Richard Sherman (49ers), Darious Williams (Rams), K’Waun Williams (49ers), P.J. Williams (Saints)
Returning from injury (1): Jason Verrett (49ers)
Possible cap casualties (4): Byron Jones (Dolphins), Bradley Roby (Saints), Trae Waynes (Bengals)
Unlike the top of the tight end class, there seems to be more of a chance that the best free-agent cornerbacks on paper will actually hit the market in a couple of weeks. Davis is one of several key free agents the Buccaneers might consider franchising, but if they instead opt to franchise wide receiver Chris Godwin, Davis could be a free agent. The Patriots have also let key defensive players test the market without a tag in years past, so while they could still bring back Jackson, opposing teams might have a real shot at signing a corner with 17 interceptions over the past two seasons.
From there, the cornerback market generally splits into two groups. One consists of veterans whose names might be bigger than their expected level of future play. Gilmore, Haden and Peterson were among the best corners in football during their respective peaks, but they’re on the wrong side of 30. Sometimes, as good as these guys are, teams aren’t willing to pay for post-peak corners, with the Chargers’ deal for Harris a couple of years ago as a good example. In some cases, it’s more about finding an effective role for a particular player, as the Colts did when they signed Rhodes and let him play zone more frequently than he did in Minnesota.
The other class consists of slot corners, with Callahan, Coleman, Fuller, Harris, K’Waun Williams and P.J. Williams competing for opportunities. We’ve seen teams continue to move their top wideouts into the slot more often in recent years, and with defenses living in their nickel packages as a default, the slot corner role is more valuable than it has ever been. At the same time, that has led to some ugly contracts, with Coleman’s deal with the Lions as a recent example. Many of these players will likely settle for one-year deals, with K’Waun Williams as a potential exception.
Most of the younger options at corner outside of the top two are players with question marks. Darious Williams is coming off his worst season as a starter. Wallace has been a corner teams have targeted for years in Buffalo, in part because they haven’t wanted to go after Tre’Davious White. Jackson got off to a solid start as a rookie but then never seemed to take that next step in Carolina. Ward is coming off a statistically impressive season with the Chiefs in which he allowed a 79.4 passer rating in coverage, but opinions on his actual level of play vary wildly around the league.
Teams that need to act in the corner market
In the way that baseball teams always need more pitching and hockey teams always need more defensemen, every NFL team wants to be deep at cornerback. If we look at the teams that need help the most, though, a handful come to mind. I’ll start with the Vikings, who are set to lose Peterson and Mackensie Alexander and don’t seem to have anybody left on the roster who Mike Zimmer trusted a year ago. Cameron Dantzler has posted solid numbers and should be in line for one starting spot, but Minnesota will be looking to add at least two corners for new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell.
The 49ers have dealt with injuries and a lack of investment at cornerback, which is why they had to turn to Josh Norman as a full-time starter and Dre Kirkpatrick as a part-time player for stretches in 2021. Third-rounder Ambry Thomas, who was picked on throughout the season, will likely come back as a starter, and veteran Emmanuel Moseley will be in the mix, although injuries have been a consistent problem. The other spots are up for grabs, as Norman, Verrett and K’Waun Williams are all free agents.
Former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh might look to bring K’Waun Williams to the Jets, who sorely need a veteran or two to supplement Bryce Hall and Michael Carter. The Seahawks were cycling through options a year ago and might want to upgrade on Sidney Jones, who is a free agent after his return to the Pacific Northwest. The Cardinals finally got Alford on the field after two years on injured reserve, but he’s a free agent, and rookie Marco Wilson didn’t play well enough to guarantee his starting spot in 2022.
The Steelers were one of the league’s deepest teams at corner as recently as a couple of years ago, but Artie Burns took a step backward, Mike Hilton left for the Bengals, Steven Nelson was released and 2019 third-rounder Justin Layne has barely seen the field. With Haden a free agent and their first-round pick likely ticketed toward an offensive lineman or quarterback, the Steelers might look toward a veteran addition at cornerback, although they might wait until after June 1.
Like Pittsburgh, the Colts prefer to draft and develop, but they might not have a choice. Kenny Moore is one of the league’s best slot corners, but Rhodes is a free agent and second-rounders Quincy Wilson and Rock Ya-Sin haven’t developed into quality starters. Ya-Sin might get one more shot out of sheer necessity in 2022, but with picks missing from the Carson Wentz trade, the Colts have little choice but to head into free agency for cornerback help this offseason.
Then, there’s the AFC West. The Raiders found a useful slot corner in rookie fifth-round pick Nate Hobbs, but Hayward was a one-year fill-in and Trayvon Mullen missed most of 2021 with injuries. I wonder if new coordinator Patrick Graham might try to convince his new organization to trade for James Bradberry, who could be traded by the Giants. The Chiefs also need corners with Ward and Mike Hughes hitting free agency, but given what we’ve seen the past few years, expect general manager Brett Veach to pursue guys with intriguing physical traits and hope to land on a starter.
Safeties
Stars (2): Jessie Bates (Bengals), Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs)
Starters (6): Terrell Edmunds (Steelers), Devin McCourty (Patriots), Justin Reid (Texans), Jaquiski Tartt (49ers), Marcus Williams (Saints), Xavier Woods (Vikings)
Regulars (8): Duron Harmon (Falcons), Anthony Harris (Eagles), Kareem Jackson (Broncos), Damontae Kazee (Cowboys), Jayron Kearse (Cowboys), D.J. Reed (Seahawks), Daniel Sorensen (Chiefs), Jordan Whitehead (Buccaneers),
Returning from injury (3): Quandre Diggs (Seahawks), Marcus Maye (Jets), Jabrill Peppers (Giants)
Possible cap casualties (4): Landon Collins (Commanders), Eddie Jackson (Bears), Eric Murray (Texans), Logan Ryan (Giants)
At safety, the top of the market might fall somewhere between its two predecessors. I don’t think the Bengals can let Bates leave after a postseason in which he had two interceptions and created a third. On a defense where so many players are smart, sound and play better than their measurables would suggest, he is the most prominent example. He didn’t have his best season before the playoff run, but Bates will likely be retained, either via the franchise tag or on a long-term deal.
Mathieu’s future seems less clear, especially after the Chiefs used the franchise tag on left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. I don’t think they could have hoped for much more when they signed Mathieu to a three-year, $42 million deal in 2019, given that he played at a high level throughout his tenure, intercepted 13 passes and didn’t miss a single game as a result of a football injury. (He was held out of a meaningless Week 17 game in 2020 and missed the opener in 2021 after a stint on the COVID-19 list.) At 30, though, will Kansas City be willing to commit one more big-money deal for the heart and soul of its defense? Or will a team hoping to get a similar boost add Mathieu?
There are plenty of players who also might fit on the line between star and starter. McCourty has been a star over the past several seasons, and the only reason he’s not included in that group moving forward is age. The 34-year-old might be choosing between only the Patriots and retirement. Williams, who was franchised by the Saints last year, is one of the best pure free safeties in the league. New Orleans probably can’t afford to franchise the 25-year-old for the second consecutive offseason, but he could come back on an extension with a team-friendly structure.
Reid and Edmunds are also going to be interesting, given that they each just turned 25. Edmunds might suffer a bit because teams will see a former first-round pick the Steelers don’t seem interested in re-signing, but he is a solid box safety if you view him independent of his draft pedigree. Reid might actually benefit from suffering through the past couple of years with the Texans, who suspended him for a game in 2021. Better-run organizations with something to play for might think they can get more out of Reid than Houston.
Finally, the players coming back from injury are interesting. Maye tore an Achilles in midseason, and the Jets likely franchised him last year in part because they didn’t have any other candidates. The 28-year-old has exhibited the range to play both safety spots and actually pieced together his best season after Jamal Adams was traded. Maye and Peppers can be useful players, especially for defenses who want to live in light boxes.
Teams that need to act in the safety market
Let’s start in the NFC East. Both starting safeties for the Cowboys and Eagles are free agents, while the Commanders are likely to cut Collins, who was moved to linebacker last season. Kam Curl will fill one starting spot for Washington, but that still leaves a minimum of five safety spots available within the division. I’ll be watching the Eagles closely because general manager Howie Roseman had a track record of spending up at safety in years past before giving corner Darius Slay a big contract.
Guess which team went three-for-three at the top of this column? The Jets are even worse off at safety than they are at cornerback, especially with Maye and fellow injured vet Lamarcus Joyner likely to leave. Ashtyn Davis, a third-round pick in 2020, hasn’t shown enough to be locked into a starting job, but he might end up with one out of sheer desperation. Saleh can’t go into 2022 with this secondary and expect to be competitive.
In the NFC West, archrivals Falcons and Saints both need help at safety and won’t have much cap space to address their problems. The Saints will be fine if they can bring back Williams, but that’s easier said than done. The Falcons might try to re-sign Harmon, but given that they ranked 31st against the pass last season (with a superstar cornerback in A.J. Terrell), I wouldn’t fault them for attempting as much of a fresh start as possible.
One team we haven’t mentioned much is the Texans, who need just about everything. Reid is likely to leave in free agency, and Murray has been miscast outside of a special teams role. It remains to be seen whether general manager Nick Caserio will go back to the well and sign another two dozen veterans to short-term deals this offseason, but if the Texans are more aggressive in trying to build a long-term plan, safety would be one of the places for new coach Lovie Smith’s team to target.
The Texans have been trying to solve their safety woes since letting Mathieu leave, and if the Chiefs do lose their star defender, Veach will have to consider signing a significant replacement. The much-maligned Sorensen is also a free agent, leaving the Chiefs with Juan Thornhill and not much else in the back end. If they want to continue playing things cheap at cornerback, they probably need to invest in one of the top safeties in this market.
Thinnest positions in 2022 free agency
Offensive tackle
Stars (2): Terron Armstead (Saints)
Starters (4): Duane Brown (Seahawks), Trent Brown (Patriots), Eric Fisher (Colts), Morgan Moses (Jets)
Regulars (2): Germain Ifedi (Bears), Cam Robinson (Jaguars)
Returning from injury (2): Chris Hubbard (Browns), Riley Reiff (Bengals)
Possible cap casualties (3): Bryan Bulaga (Chargers), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Lions), Billy Turner (Packers)
Gulp. You can throw a couple other swing tackles, such as Joe Noteboom (Rams) and Mike Remmers (Chiefs), onto this list, but if a team wants a plug-and-play starter who projects to be above-average at either tackle spot, it’s going to be competing for no more than a handful of guys.
The list above might even be optimistic. Orlando Brown Jr. got the franchise tag. Armstead could follow, and the Saints are incentivized by the dead money on his old deal to get a new contract done. He missed half of 2021 and has topped 14 games just once as a pro. Trent Brown has been sidelined for 23 out of 49 games since signing his massive free-agent deal with the Raiders in 2019. Bulaga missed 22 games in two seasons with the Chargers. Duane Brown is 36. Hubbard was disappointing as a starter and just tore his triceps. Fisher is one year removed from a torn Achilles. Vaitai and Turner are probably better at guard. It’s just not a position where teams want to be looking for talent this offseason.
One wild card who also doesn’t fit into the categories above is the No. 11 overall pick in the 2020 draft, Mekhi Becton, who missed the final 16 games because of a knee injury last season. The Jets were reportedly unhappy with Becton’s effort in recovering from that injury and pleased with the work put in by George Fant on the left side and Moses on the right side. If they can re-sign Moses, there’s a chance they could trade Becton, who was a revelation as a rookie.
The good news is that this looks to be a good draft for offensive linemen. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has five offensive tackles going in the first round of his latest mock, and I suspect that’s in part because there’s so little to go around on the veteran side of things. Teams that don’t love the rookie tackle class or that have other positions to prioritize in April are going to be grimacing at the prices they’ll need to pay to sign veterans.
Teams that need to act in the tackle market
We have to start with the Dolphins, whose offense was reduced to spamming RPOs out of an utter lack of confidence in the offensive line. Austin Jackson, the No. 18 pick in the 2020 draft, lost the left tackle job to second-rounder Liam Eichenberg, but neither impressed at the position. With left-handed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Miami is the rare team that might look to spend more at right tackle, where Jesse Davis just isn’t an NFL-caliber starter. New coach Mike McDaniel can’t head into the season without a better solution for protecting Tagovailoa’s blind side.
The Steelers — who were just ahead of the Dolphins on the pass block win rate leaderboard — turned over almost all of their offensive line last offseason. The early returns weren’t particularly impressive, and starting right tackle Chuks Okorafor is now a free agent. If they don’t use their first-round pick on a quarterback, they’ll probably address tackle. The decisions Pittsburgh makes during free agency will probably hint at its plans with the No. 20 overall pick.
Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Bengals need to leave no stone unturned in adding help for Joe Burrow. The only lineman who should be guaranteed a starting job is left tackle Jonah Williams, but even Williams might need to move if the team thinks it can land a better option on Burrow’s blind side. We’ll get to their most pressing needs in a minute.
Another team that pops up quite a bit in this piece, the Seahawks are set to lose both their starting tackles. The team could try to bring back Duane Brown, but the two sides were unable to come to terms on a new deal before the 2021 season began. Brandon Shell missed time last season, and while undrafted free agent Jake Curhan made a handful of starts, Seattle probably needs to bring in at least two players with meaningful shots of starting.
Other teams are lucky enough to have only one glaring hole in their lineup. The Colts, down their first-rounder from the Wentz deal, will need a new left tackle if Fisher walks. The Panthers need to upgrade on Cam Erving after starting eight different left tackles over the past eight seasons. The Bears will give 2021 second-rounder Teven Jenkins the first shot at claiming the left tackle job, but right tackle Larry Borom might need to kick inside. Speaking of inside …
Guard
Stars (1): Brandon Scherff (Commanders)
Starters (2): Alex Cappa (Buccaneers), James Daniels (Bears)
Regulars (9): Austin Corbett (Rams), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Jets), Mark Glowinski (Colts), Will Hernandez (Giants), Andrew Norwell (Jaguars), Lucas Patrick (Packers), Quinton Spain (Bengals), Laken Tomlinson (49ers), Trai Turner (Steelers)
Returning from injury (2): A.J. Cann (Jaguars), Richie Incognito (Raiders)
Possible cap casualties (1): Ereck Flowers (Commanders)
If you thought tackle looked bad, well, guard isn’t much better. There are several players here who were below average on good lines, such as Cappa, Corbett, Glowinski and Patrick; it might be scary to ask them to shoulder more of the load on a lesser five-man unit. Daniels had his best season in 2021, but the overall returns from his rookie deal were mixed at best. Incognito was excellent in 2019, but the 38-year-old has played two games in two seasons and might no longer be physically capable of playing.
The good news for teams that need a guard is that there’s a bona fide, top-tier star available on the market. Scherff won’t be franchised for a third time by the Commanders, which will push one of the league’s best guards onto the market. He hasn’t played a full season since 2016, but players with his ability just don’t become available in their prime very often. Trent Williams did last year and earned a record deal for a tackle. With so many teams looking for help and Scherff looming as the best option by a country mile, I would expect him to follow suit and top $18 million per season on a multiyear pact.
Teams that need to act in the guard market
Hi, Bengals — this is your cue! With Burrow suffering knee injuries in each of his first two NFL seasons and one year away from what will be a massive contract extension, this is the time for the team to act and bring in the best offensive lineman available. Cincinnati lost the Super Bowl because its interior linemen couldn’t block Aaron Donald one-on-one or deal with the Rams’ defensive line games. The Bengals won’t guarantee themselves a return trip to the Super Bowl by bringing in Scherff, but it will more than shore up their most obvious point of weakness heading into 2022.
They’re not the only recent Super Bowl attendees in need of interior help, though. The Rams have mostly operated on the cheap at guard and center and aren’t likely to make major investments on the interior this offseason, but the Buccaneers suddenly find themselves in a mess. They were already dealing with the impending free agency of Cappa and star center Ryan Jensen, but the unexpected retirement of Pro Bowl guard Ali Marpet has thrown the line further into disarray. Cappa has gone from being a player the Bucs could afford to lose to being someone they might need to keep around for the sake of continuity.
An example of how adding the best player available can go wrong is what we saw with the Jaguars, who followed their run to the AFC Championship Game in 2017 by signing Norwell to a five-year, $80 million deal. He was coming off an All-Pro appearance with the Panthers, but he has not played at a similar level since. With Norwell and Cann both free agents, the Jags will be looking for at least one starter. Third-year lineman Ben Bartch will be part of the competition, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them roll out two new guard starters in Week 1.
If the Bears let Daniels leave, they might also be looking at a pair of new starters at guard. Cody Whitehair started there last season, but it certainly looks like he is better at center, and they might move him back in 2022. (Either of their tackles could also kick inside.) I wonder if new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will push to bring in someone such as Patrick, whose next contract could be too expensive for the Packers to keep.
The Giants‘ multiyear obsession with hog mollies and establishing the run under Dave Gettleman didn’t deliver results. Now, with coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen arriving, the line needs another rebuild. Hernandez, who was immediately followed in Round 2 of the 2018 draft by Nick Chubb, Darius Leonard and Braden Smith, didn’t establish himself as anything more than a serviceable guard. Shane Lemieux, a fifth-rounder two years ago, missed most of 2021 because of a torn patella, and now the guy who drafted him is out of town. Bills general manager Brandon Beane rebuilt the Buffalo line by adding in bulk and creating one of the league’s deepest lines; it remains to be seen whether Schoen will follow in his former boss’ footsteps.
The team losing Scherff will need to start over on the interior, as the Commanders might also make Flowers a cap casualty. Saahdiq Charles made a few spot starts at guard and could figure in the rotation, but coach Ron Rivera is going to need at least one new starter up front. He also needs a player to throw passes behind those linemen …
Quarterback
Stars (0)
Starters (0)
Regulars (3): Andy Dalton (Bears), Marcus Mariota (Raiders), Mitchell Trubisky (Bills)
Returning from injury (3): Teddy Bridgewater (Broncos), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Commanders), Jameis Winston (Saints)
Possible cap casualties (1): Carson Wentz (Colts)
Well, you knew it wasn’t going to be pretty when you heard the recent hype train leaving the station for Trubisky, who was last seen winning the NVP award in the 2020 playoffs and narrowly beating out Nick Foles in a quarterback battle. His dramatic turnaround after throwing eight passes in garbage time for the Bills is a testament to the power of hope and how desperate teams are to find passers with physical tools and a live arm. The 2016 No. 2 overall pick deserves to be on an NFL roster and would probably qualify as one of the best backups in the league, but it would take just about everything being right around the 27-year-old to get him in position to be a productive starter.
One of the reasons teams are talking themselves into Trubisky after letting him sign a one-year deal with the Bills last offseason is because there’s really nothing else around him in free agency. Fitzpatrick might not be able or ready to return from a serious hip injury, while Winston is recovering from a torn ACL. If I had to pick someone to start from the free-agent list, I’d go for Mariota, but he has started just once since being benched for Ryan Tannehill in October 2019.
If the Colts do cut Wentz, he would move to the top of the leaderboard, but I still believe Indy will have a trade market for him. Otherwise, the major moves among the quarterbacks will likely have to come via trade, with Wentz, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo the most likely candidates to end up in new cities.
Teams that need to act in the quarterback market
So much obviously depends on the Aaron Rodgers situation. For the moment, let’s just assume that he stays in Green Bay and Kirk Cousins stays in Minnesota and project that Wentz is traded to the Buccaneers and Garoppolo ends up with the Panthers.
The Broncos would then be the team with the most conspicuous empty chair in the NFL at quarterback, given that they would be down to Drew Lock and Brett Rypien under center. New coach Nathaniel Hackett once coaxed a competent season out of Blake Bortles, who profiles similarly to Trubisky in a vacuum. I wonder if they would prefer to try to draft their pick of the quarterback class with the No. 9 overall pick.
With the Saints trying to retain continuity by promoting Dennis Allen to coach and keeping Pete Carmichael as their offensive coordinator, a reunion with Winston would seem in the cards. While Winston is coming off that knee injury, he played well enough to earn a raise on the one-year, $5.5 million pact he signed with New Orleans last year.
The Steelers might also look to the draft to replace Ben Roethlisberger, with Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett as the sentimental local favorite. Even if they plan on drafting their quarterback of the future, they could still look to add a veteran to compete with the rookie and Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins.
Ron Rivera basically said that the Commanders were willing to throw out whatever it took to get an upgrade at quarterback this offseason, but they might not find themselves in position to land a star. A more realistic addition could be Dalton, who once played under Commanders quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese in Cincinnati.
If the Colts end up dealing Wentz, they would need a new quarterback. Their backups behind Wentz are Sam Ehlinger and James Morgan, who have combined to throw zero pro passes. I wonder if they would be a landing spot for Bridgewater, whose efficiency and accuracy might play up on a team that has 12 of its 17 games in 2022 inside a dome.
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