Last season’s Super Bowl squads, the Kansas City Chiefs (+500) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650), return as odds-on favorites to play deep into February, but can the Buffalo Bills (+1200) or Green Bay Packers (+1400) break through and punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVI?
Perhaps the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are back, as they’ve raised their odds the most this offseason, with the Patriots moving from 40-1 to 30-1 after strong QB play this preseason, and the Broncos sit at 40-1 after opening at 60-1.
After Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl at home last year, could we see a either of the two Los Angeles teams win their conference. The Chargers, behind their young stars, are 15-1 to win the AFC, and the Rams sit at 6-1 to win the NFC, after an offseason in which they landed Matthew Stafford.
Here are Super Bowl, conference and divisional odds, season win totals and odds to make the postseason for all 32 NFL teams (through Aug. 24).
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (12-1 to win Super Bowl)
Odds to win AFC: 6-1
Division: -155
Over/under: 11
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +260
QB Josh Allen over/under 4,450.5 passing yards.
Prediction: Over
Will Josh Allen throw for more than 4,450 yards in 2021? Oh, you mean a number lower than his passing yards total in last year’s 16-game season? Yeah, go ahead and lock this in. With a 17th game, a smorgasbord of pass catchers and an AFC title-game loss fueling him, Allen has a real shot at leading the NFL in passing yards this year — and it’ll take more than 4,450 yards to do so. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Miami Dolphins (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: +340
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +125, No -150
Myles Gaskin over/under 775.5 rushing yards
Prediction: Over
The Dolphins didn’t bring in any realistic competition for Gaskin as their lead back this offseason, so this should be his backfield in 2021. Miami didn’t run the ball particularly well last season, but an improved offensive line and passing game should alleviate some of those issues. Don’t bet on video game numbers out of him, but if he’s healthy. Gaskin should at least get in the 800-yard range. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: +350
Over/under wins: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +125, No -150
Patriots 10.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The Patriots won seven games with Cam Newton at QB last season, with limited personnel around him. The talent has been upgraded, and even if Newton is supplanted by rookie Mac Jones, hitting 11 wins should be within reach. — Mike Reiss
New York Jets (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 22-1
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +425, No -600
Zach Wilson over/under 3,750.5 passing yards
Prediction: Over
This is 220 yards per game, the same total as Sam Darnold registered last season. If Darnold can do 220 on one of the league’s worst offenses in recent memory, it seems logical that Wilson can reach that number, especially with better players around him. The Jets also could be playing catchup a lot, which should lead to inflated passing totals. — Rich Cimini
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (14-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13/2
Division: +120
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -330, No +260
Highest-scoring team +1500
In Lamar Jackson’s first two full seasons as the starter, the Ravens have been the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 31.2 points per game. In 2021, Baltimore plays nine games against teams that allowed over 26 points per game last season, including the porous defenses in Detroit, Las Vegas and Minnesota. — Jamison Hensley
Cleveland Browns (16-1)
Odds to win AFC: 8-1
Division: +145
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -200, No +170
Browns over 9.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Baker Mayfield looks confident and poised after last year’s breakout season. Odell Beckham Jr.’s knee looks healthy again. And the new defensive additions, most notably safety John Johnson III and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, are having stellar training camps. Last year, the Browns won 11 games, despite a new coaching staff, COVID-19 sidelining multiple key players and OBJ missing the second half of the season. With the continuity offensively, the upgrade in talent defensively and a 17th game now, it’s difficult to envision these Browns not reaching a double-digit win total again. — Jake Trotter
Pittsburgh Steelers (40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 4-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -180
Najee Harris 7.5 rushing touchdowns
Prediction: Under
Harris might have fewer than 7.5 rushing touchdowns, but that’s only because he’s such a pass-catching threat that he could rack up a good amount of receiving touchdowns. With a skill set like former Pittsburgh star Le’Veon Bell’s, Harris figures to be used similarly. Bell averaged seven rushing touchdowns in five seasons with the Steelers, and scored a career-high three receiving touchdowns in 2014 to pair with eight rushing touchdowns. Harris could be an even better pass-catcher than Bell, making him a versatile red zone option. — Brooke Pryor
Cincinnati Bengals (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 25-1
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +400, No -550
RB Joe Mixon with 1,100 rushing yards
Prediction: Under
Even though Mixon is healthy and has been impressive in training camp, he’s still a running back in a pass-heavy offense. Mixon will get the bulk of the carries this season, for sure, but he will do plenty of damage in the passing game as the Bengals look for ways to get him into space. If the offense is humming, Mixon will get plenty of yards. They might just be coming via air instead of the ground. — Ben Baby
AFC South
Tennessee Titans (25-1)
Odds to win AFC: 13-1
Division: +110
Over/under: 9.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -150, No +130
Titans over/under 9.5 wins
Prediction: Over
For starters, the AFC South doesn’t appear to be a very strong division, especially with the injuries the Colts are experiencing. Division wins should account for at least six wins. The combined winning percentage of Titans opponents is .507, which is tied for the 13th strongest in the NFL. A rugged stretch starting with the Bills in Week 6 followed by the Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints will make it tough, though. — Turron Davenport
Indianapolis Colts (35-1)
Odds to win AFC: 16-1
Division: +110
Over/under: 11
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -210, No +175
Jonathan Taylor rushes for more than 1,300 yards
Prediction: Under
This isn’t a knock on Taylor’s ability, because he’s capable of topping the 1,300-yard mark after rushing for 1,169 yards last season. It’s more about the depth the Colts have at running back. They also have Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins in the backfield. Taylor is the clear-cut No. 1 back and should top 1,000 yards rushing, but the offensive staff will rotate backs in the backfield at times so that they can wear teams down. — Mike Wells
Jacksonville Jaguars (125-1)
Odds to win AFC: 60-1
Division: 8-1
Over/under: 6
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +300, No -400
Jaguars over/under 6 wins
Prediction: Under
Two big reasons to take the under. Urban Meyer told the ESPN Monday Night Football crew before the second preseason game that the Jaguars don’t yet have an offensive identity. That’s despite having QB Trevor Lawrence, and it’s not a good sign three weeks before the season opener. The first-team offense managed just one field goal in four quarters in the first two preseason games, too. The other big reason to take the under: The poor play of the offensive line in those two games. Lawrence was battered pretty good against the Saints and fared no better against Cleveland’s backups in the preseason opener. Tackles Jawaan Taylor and Cam Robinson don’t look any better than last season, when the duo combined to give up 27 sacks. It looks like it’s going to be another year of struggling to move the ball and scoring points. — Michael DiRocco
Houston Texans (250-1)
Odds to win AFC: 150-1
Division: 26-1
Over/under: 4
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +700, No -1100
Lowest-scoring team in NFL +450
The Texans’ offense is not going to be anywhere near as explosive as it was in 2020. While Houston upgraded at running back with Phillip Lindsay, it downgraded everywhere else. Tyrod Taylor is solid but nowhere near the talent of Deshaun Watson, while wide receivers Will Fuller and Randall Cobb are gone, leaving Brandin Cooks and unproven pass catchers behind. The other teams on this list at least have young talent that could break out in 2021. There’s little of that to be found across the Texans’ roster. That’s what happens when you have one first-round pick in four years. — Sarah Barshop
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Odds to win AFC: 5-2
Division: -320
Over/under: 12.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -1000, No +650
Patrick Mahomes 4,950.5 passing yards
Prediction: Under
It’s tempting to take the over given that Mahomes went over 5,000 yards in 2018 and over 4,700 yards last season despite playing in just 15 games. But the Chiefs will be improved defensively and won’t need huge passing totals from Mahomes. Look for him to make a run at this number, though. — Adam Teicher
Los Angeles Chargers (30-1)
Odds to win AFC: 15-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -165, No +135
Chargers over/under 9 wins
Prediction: Over
QB Justin Herbert shines after a full offseason and training camp. He has multiple receivers who are healthy and hungry. — Shelley Smith
Denver Broncos (40-1)
Odds to win AFC: 20-1
Division: 6-1
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +155, No -180
Broncos over 9.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Even if things go as well as the Broncos hope, this could be BARELY over, as in a 10-7 finish. And whether that would be enough to break a five-year playoff drought remains to be seen, but Denver boasts a favorable schedule, a defense that should be one of the league’s best and some potential pop on offense if the starting quarterback can simply not be a turnover factory, no matter who wins the job. The Broncos have to get out of September with some momentum, though, as coach Vic Fangio is 0-for-September in his two previous seasons. None of the Broncos’ first three opponents — Giants, Jaguars and Jets — made the playoffs last season, and two of the three have new coaches. — Jeff Legwold
Las Vegas Raiders (80-1)
Odds to win AFC: 40-1
Division: 18-1
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +325, No -425
Derek Carr 4,050.5 passing yards
Prediction: Over
Let’s see, Carr has set career highs in passing yards in each season he has played under Jon Gruden, going from 4,049 yards in 2018 to 4,054 in 2019 to 4,103 last season. And with an extra game to pad stats and talent all over the field — from Pro Bowlers Darren Waller at tight end and Josh Jacobs at running back, to young, improving wideouts Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards — it’s hard to see Carr taking a step back in production. The Raiders’ rebuilt offensive line will have to give Carr time, and that might be the only reason to take the under here. Still, Carr has improved his output every year under Gruden, and that trend should continue. — Paul Gutierrez
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 15-1
Division: +115
Over/under wins: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -170, No +145
Dak Prescott comeback player of year
Prediction: 180
This seems to be the lock of the season before the Cowboys have even played a game. Prescott’s ankle will not hold him back. The Cowboys will be on prime-time television a ton. They will be improved over their 6-10 record from 2020 because Prescott and the offensive line will be available and the defense should be better. All things for the Cowboys go through Prescott. If he truly excels, then he should be high in the MVP voting as well. — Todd Archer
Washington (50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +260
Over/under: 8.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -180
Chase Young over/under 8.5 sacks
Prediction: Over
Young finished with 7.5 sacks as a rookie when he was still learning to be a pass rusher and also dealing with a hip injury for the first nine games. In his last six, he recorded four sacks. He’s a more educated pass rusher and worked quite a bit on his fluidity in the offseason, helping him turn the corner better. Recording 1.5 sacks more than he did as a rookie, with one more game, does not feel like a tall task. — John Keim
New York Giants (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: +425
Over/under: 7
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +250, No -310
Saquon Barkley 9.5 rushing touchdowns
Prediction: Under
Barkley has 17 rushing touchdowns in 31 career games. At that pace, he would finish with nine rushing touchdowns this season. But there are so many variables that come into play that are working against him, most notably that he is coming back from a serious knee injury. It might prevent him from being ready for Week 1. If not, his workload will at least be limited early in the season. That should have you leaning toward this under even before mentioning the possibility of another injury, related or not. — Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: 5-1
Over/under: 6.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +280, No -350
Eagles 5.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has proven to be a quick study and will be protected by one of the better offensive lines in the league when the unit is healthy. That will allow the young skill group led by Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith to shine. The defense is strong up front and will be focused on creating takeaways under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. This is a better roster than advertised and, with one of the easiest projected schedules in the NFL, shouldn’t have much issue clearing the 5.5 win mark. — Tim McManus
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: -150
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -230, No +190
Aaron Rodgers passing yards 4,500.5
Prediction: Over
Rodgers has topped that mark only once in his career — 4,663 in 2011, the year after his first MVP. He’s coming off an MVP season again. With the 17th game added and this possibly being a last dance for Rodgers in Green Bay, he’ll come out firing. — Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings (40-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +250
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +110, No -130
Justin Jefferson over/under 1,300.5 receiving yards
Prediction: Under
Taking the over is tempting given Jefferson recorded 1,400 receiving yards as a rookie in a 16-game season in which he didn’t start playing in earnest until Week 3. However, defenses are well aware of the damage the star wideout can cause, so expect teams to roll coverage his way and double the 22-year-old frequently. That will likely cause Jefferson’s receiving yards to dip even with the benefit of an added game, though we can expect his receiving touchdowns to bump up the seven he hauled in last season given his deep-play ability. Minnesota has plenty of other playmakers — Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr. and Dalvin Cook — to make sure teams don’t solely key in on Jefferson, who will continue to be targeted a ton and rack up big numbers. — Courtney Cronin
Chicago Bears (50-1)
Odds to win NFC: 25-1
Division: +475
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +150, No -180
TE Cole Kmet over/under 49 receptions
Prediction: Over
The Bears made a concerted effort to target Kmet at camp, which is good sign going forward. Although Kmet will share tight end duties with Jimmy Graham, the Bears seem eager to use last year’s second-round pick in the passing game. Also helping Kmet’s cause is the lack of reliable options at wide receiver after Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney. Add it all up, and Kmet has a solid chance of slightly hitting the over and catching 50-plus passes. — Jeff Dickerson
Detroit Lions (200-1)
Odds to win NFC: 100-1
Division: 25-1
Over/under: 5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +600, No -900
Lions win over 5 games
Prediction: Over
Who are the Detroit Lions? Quite frankly, we don’t know yet. The coaching staff is new, led by Dan Campbell, and the organization has a new general manager in Brad Holmes and new quarterback in Jared Goff. With that said, the Lions have built a roster — or at least tried to build one — based on grit, and in the infamous words of Campbell, they want to be tough enough to “bite a kneecap off.” This Lions team could surprise some people, despite a tough schedule, and have some strong players in RB D’Andre Swift, Pro Bowl TE T.J. Hockenson and CB Jeff Okudah if they step up. For a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, the football gods have to remove some of the suffering at some point. It can’t get much worse than last year’s 5-11 season, so I’ll take the over on this. — Eric Woodyard
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13/2)
Odds to win NFC: 3-1
Division: -320
Over/under: 12
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -750, No +500
Buccaneers 12 wins
Prediction: Over
The Bucs reached 11 wins without any sort of offseason to help Tom Brady acclimate to a completely new system. This year, Brady knows the system and Tampa Bay returns all 22 starters on offense and defense from the Super Bowl. I don’t see the Bucs losing twice to a Saints team that doesn’t have Drew Brees, and their schedule is quite manageable, with their opponents finishing a combined 126-145-1 in 2020. — Jenna Laine
New Orleans Saints (30-1)
Odds to win NFC: 15-1
Division: 3-1
Over/under: 9
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +105, No -125
Saints over 9 wins
Prediction: Over
Obviously there are real concerns after Drew Brees retired, Michael Thomas had ankle surgery and the roster was thinned out by a salary-cap purge. But that’s all baked into the price. Remember, this team went 12-4 last year despite uneven QB play and Thomas missing seven games. The Saints are still loaded with elite coaching and talent at several positions, including RB, O-line and defense. — Mike Triplett
Atlanta Falcons (60-1)
Odds to win NFC: 30-1
Division: 9-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +210, No -260
WR Calvin Ridley 9.5 receiving touchdowns
Prediction: Over
Sure, Julio Jones didn’t have a plethora of touchdowns the past three seasons, but with Jones in Tennessee, more targets are sure to come Ridley’s way. He has already gone over once — 10 in his rookie season — and had nine last year. There is no reason to think he won’t go over that as the true No. 1 in 2021. — Michael Rothstein
Carolina Panthers (80-1)
Odds to win NFC: 40-1
Division: 11-1
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +250, No -310
RB Christian McCaffrey over/under 2000 yards from scrimmage
Prediction: Over
McCaffrey is fully healthy after missing 13 games last season because of injuries, and he looks even faster than he did in 2019 when he became the third player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards rushing and receiving. — David Newton
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: +180
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -190, No +160
Aaron Donald 12.5 sacks
Prediction: Under
It’s not easy to bet against the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year when it comes to tallying sacks, but the Rams’ defensive front could experience some growing pains this season, at least early in the schedule, in the wake of several key departures. Gone are veteran linemen Michael Brockers and Morgan Fox, as well as edge rusher Samson Ebukam. Their absence could cause opponents to key in on slowing Donald as his new counterparts work to prove that they too must be accounted for. — Lindsey Thiry
San Francisco 49ers (14-1)
Odds to win NFC: 6-1
Division: 2-1
Over/under: 10.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -170, No +145
Deebo Samuel over/under 4.5 rec TD
Prediction: Over
Samuel was plagued by injuries in 2020 but arrived at this year’s camp leaner and faster. He said he wanted to add the deep ball to his arsenal, and that has been evident in camp as he has connected with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance on long throws for would-be scores. A couple of those, combined with his usage in the short passing game, should give him a chance to set a new career high for receiving touchdowns and exceed this mark. — Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks (25-1)
Odds to win NFC: 12-1
Division: +280
Over/under: 10
Odds to make playoffs: Yes -120, No +100
Russell Wilson over/under 4,200.5 passing yards
Prediction: Over
Wilson has thrown for more than 4,200 yards only twice in his career — last year and in 2016. But if extrapolated over 17 games, his passing-yardage totals top that mark in five of the past six seasons. And Wilson, who has never missed a game in nine NFL seasons, is as safe a bet as anyone to play in all 17 games. — Brady Henderson
Arizona Cardinals (40-1)
Odds to win NFC: 20-1
Division: +575
Over/under: 8
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +180, No -220
QB Kyler Murray 1,000 rushing yards
Prediction: Under
Yes, Murray had 819 rushing yards last season, but both Murray and the Cardinals don’t want him running as much this year. Part of the reason they went out and signed James Conner was to give Murray a one-two punch in the backfield alongside Chase Edmonds. Murray said this offseason that he wants his legs to be a luxury, but the problem with that is his running game gives Arizona’s offense a third dimension that most teams don’t have. Will he run? Yes. Will it be for 1,000 yards? No. — Josh Weinfuss
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