NHL temperature check – which teams will continue their hot starts?

If anything, they’re now more reliant on Crosby than they’ve ever been with the litany of injuries they’ve endured up front in the early going. They’ve gotten only a little over 100 minutes of ice time out of Evgeni Malkin, Nick Bjugstad and Alex Galchenyuk combined. Jared McCann has been in and out of the lineup, and Bryan Rust has yet to play a single game.

But you wouldn’t know any of that just by looking at the results, because Pittsburgh hasn’t missed a beat. The Penguins not only just rattled off a five-game winning streak, but are top 10 in both goals for and against for the season.

The reason they’ve been able to keep producing despite all of the man games lost is because they take after their best player, who himself continues to chug along without missing a beat, regardless of what’s going on around him. At this point it’s fair to wonder whether Crosby is even human or if he’s just a hockey-playing robot, because that would actually explain his ability to keep doing what he’s doing.

The 13 points in 10 games are obviously excellent, but the sheer workload he’s shouldering might be even more impressive at this point. At age 32, he’s playing 21:27 per game, which is the most he has averaged since the 2013-14 season. Of that total, the 16:43 he’s eating up at 5-on-5 represents the most he has ever played in his career, which is unheard of as he approaches game No. 1,000 later this season. But it’s not just the quantity of minutes, because it’s the quality too. With Crosby on the ice at even strength, the Penguins are tilting the ice on their opponents by controlling 56.5% of the shot attempts, 52.9% of the shots on goal, and outscoring them 9-6.

Based on their current roster, there’s no real reason why the Penguins should be doing as well as they’ve been doing thus far. Except for the fact that they have Sidney Crosby, and their opponents don’t.

The hockey world was quick to write off the Blue Jackets this summer after their talent exodus in free agency, but I was skeptical that things were actually going to be as bleak as people were making it out to be. The big thing for them is that it’s not as if they were ultimately being forced to start from square one again, because they still had a number of key building blocks in place.

They don’t have any proven commodities in goal, but the elephant in the room is that it’s not as if their goaltending was that good last season. Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins got off to shaky starts by giving up 11 goals in their first two games, but since then they’ve given up only 18 combined goals in their next seven games (which includes a pair of unfortunate overtime bounces, which tend to happen amid the craziness of 3-on-3 hockey). Both are unknowns at this level, but at least the door isn’t closed on them being solid NHL netminders given enough time and reps. There’s enough theoretical talent there that the Blue Jackets should stick with this duo until we can say with any certainty whether they are the answer.

The best thing this team has going for it is an established identity: This is an incredibly difficult team to play against. The Blue Jackets are tenacious, they’re relentless, and they don’t give you time to take your foot off the pedal and relax. They’re going to struggle to score because they don’t have anyone who can consistently create easy offense for themselves and others, and we’re seeing that manifest itself already in the form of low shooting percentages and ineffective power-play conversion rates. One way to compensate for that is to increase the raw volume of opportunities, which is exactly what they’re doing — they’re firing the seventh-most shot attempts in the league, and only four teams are getting shots on net at a higher rate.

Each of their past seven games have been decided by one goal, with four of them needing overtime to settle things, and that’s a trend that’ll probably continue all season. It won’t always be pretty in Columbus, but it’ll always be competitive. That’s perfectly fine considering the other alternatives.

“Their defense and depth down the middle beyond Mika Zibanejad is still highly suspect, so it’s fair to wonder just how much of those trendy moves will translate to immediate results, but there’s no question that they’ll be incredibly exciting to watch.”

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They’re played fewer games than any team that didn’t start their schedule in Europe, and yet they’ve already shown us all of those highs and lows in full doses. The new combination of Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin has been just as electrifying as we expected, dazzling us with breathtaking sequences in the offensive zone. Zibanejad kicked his season off with a pair of four-point efforts, and appears to have taken his game to the next level thanks to the help of his new running mate. Meanwhile, Panarin has already shown that he was worth every single penny the Rangers spent on him this summer.

• Shot attempts against: 42.0 last season, 42.9 this season

• Shots on goal against: 30.5 last season, 32.1 this season

• High-danger chances against: 11.26 last season, 9.74 this season

• Goals against: 2.30 last season, 2.47 this season

• Expected goals against: 2.59 last season, 2.50 this season

• 5-on-5 save percentage: 93.66% last season, 93.81% this season

• All situations save percentage: 92.47% last season, 92.31% this season

Given how stingy they are defensively, the bar they need to clear to give their goalies enough support is quite low. But the question with this team is ultimately going to be about how and from whom they’re going to generate a steady supply of offense. It’s impossible to know what their power play is going to do this season, because they’ve somehow had a stunningly low 12 opportunities to date. In those few chances that they have had, they’ve managed to create a couple of timely goes. Considering that no team currently has a lower rate of both actual and expected 5-on-5 goals created than they do in the early going, it’ll be imperative that they continue to produce on the power play.

Teams off to surprisingly hot starts

Note: Stats updated through games of Oct. 22.

The “New Guy” line of Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky and Joonas Donskoi has been terrific in the early going, outscoring the opposition 6-3 at 5-on-5 and providing the Avalanche with the second forward unit they can confidently throw out there when their stars require a breather. They’ve already squeezed 10 combined goalies out of those three, and there should be plenty more to come. The third line hasn’t really gotten going yet because of J.T. Compher’s brief absence, but Tyson Jost’s hat trick on the road against the Lightning was an encouraging sign that better days are ahead for that group as well. After what appeared to be a gruesome looking lower-body injury for Rantanen, the Avalanche will need that supporting cast to step up even more than was initially expected.

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Pavel Francouz is a relative unknown in NHL circles considering that he’s a 29-year-old who just started his first NHL game this month, but his track record suggests that was because of opportunity and not his ability. You never really know how to translate success in other leagues to the NHL because of the talent gap, but for goalies, the ability to stop the puck at every stop along the way is typically a good sign of future results. And Francouz has done just that regardless of where he’s played:

• .924 save percentage in 164 Czech League games

• .945 save percentage in 83 KHL games

• .918 save percentage in 46 AHL games

He’s continued to show off those skills in his limited action thus far, posting a .949 save percentage in his four NHL appearances. His most recent performance against the high-powered Lightning was littered with jaw-dropping saves, as he stopped 44 of the 46 shots he faced. He looked every bit the part of an experienced goalie who’s traveled the world and performed at a high level wherever he’s landed, looking completely unfazed as the league’s most devastating offense peppered him with high-danger shots from all over the ice. The team will still rely on Grubauer to do most of the heavy lifting, but it’s quite a luxury to have a second option like Francouz on whom to fall back.

The Ducks are a classic example of a team that has to really convince people that it might be good — or at least not as bad as it was expected to be.

Anaheim finished 24th overall last season and was a punching bag for much of it. Its roster was ravaged by injuries, and its chances of competing on a nightly basis were decimated by questionable coaching. Both of those issues appear to have been addressed — with Dallas Eakins taking over behind the bench — and it’s time to start embracing the possibility that the fundamental change in process could lead to legitimately improved results.

• 5-on-5 shot attempt share: 46.9% (27th in the NHL)

• 5-on-5 shot on goal share: 46.9% (28th)

• 5-on-5 expected goal share: 45.4% (29th)

• 5-on-5 high-danger chances against per hour: 12.3 (28th)

• All situations shot attempts against: 58.5 (30th)

• All situations shots against: 29.0 (21st)

• All situations expected goals against: 2.56 (29th)

• All situations high-danger chances against: 13.5 (30th)

Here’s how they compare in each of those categories under Eakins thus far:

• 5-on-5 shot attempt share: 50.4% (15th)

• 5-on-5 shot on goal share: 50.3% (14th)

• 5-on-5 expected goal share: 49.2% (17th)

• 5-on-5 high-danger chances against per hour: 8.35 (9th)

• All situations shot attempts against: 53.8 (8th)

• All situations shots against: 29.5 (7th)

• All situations expected goals against: 2.34 (9th)

• All situations high-danger chances against: 8.2 (3rd)

Despite the improvements, there are still legitimate concerns about whether this team has enough offensive firepower to keep up with the best teams in the league. That’s one of the main reasons we shouldn’t expect them to keep winning six of every 10 games and staying ahead of teams like the Golden Knights, Sharks and Flames in the Pacific Division standings.

But it’s all relative. At the very least, there appears to be a certain baseline level of competence with the Ducks this season, and that shouldn’t be discounted. When you have a goalie as good as Gibson is, the threshold you need to clear to give yourself a chance to be competitive is quite low.

He’s never finished in the top-5 of Vezina Trophy voting, but Gibson is a rock star in net, with his play unquestionably warranting recognition ever since he entered the league. What he needs in front of him to not only give the team a fighting chance but also finally start get himself some credit in the discussion for best goalies in the league is quite reasonable — keep the shots and chances against him to a manageable level, and provide the bare minimum for offensive support.

The Ducks weren’t able to clear that low bar last season, but it appears they now have a chance under a new coach and a collection of young players who should only continue to get better as the season progresses.

The team’s ability to generate goals this season has been in stark contrast to last season, when no player reached either the 20-goal or 50-point threshold. It’s still too early to project individual paces because one strong game here or there can change the entire outlook, but it’s worth noting that the Coyotes have scored four or more goals in four of their past six games, a benchmark they hit only 27 times in 82 games last season. They’ve also scored five goals twice already, which they did only five times all last season.

In the first few games it looked like it was going to be the same story again after they were shut down by Gibson and the Bruins’ Jaroslav Halak, but since then, they’ve feasted against less stingy competition. Here’s a look at that improvement across the board, sorting their league rank offensively by game state:

• Last season: 31st at 5-on-5 scoring, 26th on the power play, 27th overall

• This season: 18th at 5-on-5 scoring, 10th on the power play, 14th overall

The two biggest driving forces have been the addition of Phil Kessel and the fact that the group is finally healthy and intact. The Coyotes haven’t really started turning their looks into goals quite yet at 5-on-5, but the top line of Kessel, Derek Stepan and Clayton Keller will if it keeps dominating like it has thus far. They have just two goals to show for their work, but they’re controlling 61.5% of the shot attempts, 65.1% of the shots on goal and 70.0% of the high-danger chances. That’s a recipe for success, and it appears that Arizona is getting the shot in the arm it hoped for when it traded for Kessel.

Kuemper’s ascension as he approaches 30 is quite the development, becoming the latest example of how seemingly random the goaltending position can be. While everyone salivated at the idea of Antti Raanta finally being healthy enough to soak up a full workload, Kuemper has quietly sneaked into the Coyotes’ crease and taken the job for himself based on his play. It’s fair to say that it’s been a surprising turn of events at this stage of his career, considering that he’d never really shown himself to be anything more than a league-average backup before last season:

• From 2012-2018: 114 starts, .912 save percentage, minus-22.7 goals saved above average

• Since the start of last season: 61 starts, .927 save percentage, plus-15.4 goals saved above average

We’re ultimately going to need to see more of these trends continuing before we can say with any real confidence that the Coyotes should be considered a threat at the top of the Pacific Division. But if they can prove to be simply competent offensively, that should be enough to win plenty of games when paired with this kind of goaltending.

In a way, they’ve also followed a similar formula for their early success: strong goaltending, a lethal power play and their best players doing a lot of the heavy lifting. The Oilers are fifth in save percentage, their power play has generated the third-most goals per hour, while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are second and fourth in league scoring while north of 1.5 points per game. The Sabres are fourth in save percentage and fourth in goals per hour on the power play, and Jack Eichel has been playing like a man possessed this season, with 14 points in 10 games.

If we have to pick between the two, the Sabres’ success appears to be more sustainable. They’ve been the superior 5-on-5 team, hovering around the 50% mark in all of the shot-based metrics. (They’re at 50.0% in shot attempts, 50.2% in shots on goal, 54.8% in high-danger chances and 51.1% in expected goals.) That represents a marked improvement from where they were last season, even when they were on their big 10-game winning streak. The various renovations they made to the lineup this summer have paid immediate dividends, significantly increasing their floor by removing many of the black holes, and turning their blue line from a liability into a net positive.

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The case for the Oilers’ continuing this level of success seems flimsier. They haven’t been nearly as good as a group at 5-on-5, relying more heavily on those other aforementioned strengths. They’re currently squeezing every remaining ounce of juice out of their goaltending, which doesn’t seem very likely to continue for much longer based on the players involved. The duo of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith have stopped north of 92.5% of the total shots they’ve faced to this point, which is a figure that’s going to inevitably dip down to something around 91% (if not lower) if the past is any indication. We saw this kind of a strong start for Koskinen last season before he crumpled, while Smith has been on the wrong side of the hill for long enough now that we should know better than to buy into a couple of strong games strung together.

Dave Tippett’s system has historically gotten the most out of its goalies (including Smith himself once upon a time in Arizona), and it wouldn’t be the first time that a team’s goalies got hot and stayed hot. But it’s important to maintain some perspective and evaluate situations like this based on the larger sample size, because save percentages over a short period of time can mask a lot of underlying deeper rooted flaws. It’s truly remarkable what a hot goalie will do for changing the overall perception of a team as a whole. I’m skeptical.

While James Neal’s goal scoring has been a pleasant surprise, the degree to which this team relies on their top two players is really pushing the boundaries of what’s humanly possible. It’s currently leaning on Draisaitl to play the minutes of a No. 1 workhorse defenseman, and Connor McDavid isn’t too far behind. Here are the leaders in average ice time for the season among all forwards:

The good news for the Oilers is that these two did this last season, and they did it well. In a way, there’s something admirable about going to battle with your two best players, leaving it all out there, and going down swinging. Everyone knows all about McDavid’s singular greatness, but Draisaitl appears to have taken his game to another level, shedding any lingering concerns that his production is just a byproduct of playing with the best player in the world. He’s been dominant for large stretches this season, and he’s either scored or directly set up half of the team’s total goals.

The bad news is that it still doesn’t seem like an ideal management of your best resources, especially when we’re in the load-management era of optimizing player performance by closely monitoring workload. While they’re going the way they have been early this season, Edmonton will be just fine; but, the margin for error is incredibly thin — if either of McDavid or Draisaitl slows down or gets injured, everything could crumple around them like a deck of cards. That’s a scary place to be in when talking about such a physical and dangerous sport like hockey.

Coming into the season, the Pacific was widely considered to be the weakest division in the league, largely because of its perceived lack of depth beyond the top three teams. But it’s been surprisingly frisky in the early going, with no real obvious bottom feeders presenting themselves. We’ve already highlighted the Ducks and Oilers here, but even the Canucks and Kings are putting together nice little résumés of their own in the first couple of weeks.

No one has been more critical of the Canucks and their seeming lack of a forward-thinking plan when it’s come to constructing their roster than I have, but I’m willing to admit that they already look a lot better than I thought they would following their series of offseason acquisitions. They’ve had the benefit of an awfully light schedule in the early going, but they also just finished off a largely successful four-game road trip and have won six of their past seven games.