Season of defections ahead of 2022 polls

They were allies of the big candidates and vowed to stand by them through thick and thin. But now, lawmakers and leaders who have been by the side of President Uhuru Kenyatta, ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto are changing sides or choosing to run as independents as the season for political defections hits fever pitch ahead of next year’s election.

The politicians, who either lost to their rivals in the 2017 elections or who seek to retain their seats, have been trooping to friendlier sides driven by the need to survive politically, the Handshake between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga and their popularity; Ruto’s ground-game and Jubilee’s diminishing popularity.

The latest defection is that of Kiambu Woman rep Gathoni Wamuchomba, who on Wednesday joined the ‘hustler movement’ led by DP Ruto, citing the growing hostilities towards President Kenyatta in Mt Kenya.

Ms Wamuchomba who decamped just hours after Nakuru Town East MP David Gikaria and Samuel Gachobe of Subukia joined the hustler movement, adds to the growing list of politicians who have been warming up to the DP’s UDA party in the recent months.

Among those who have joined the DP are former Nasa co-principal and Chama cha Mashinani party leader Isaac Ruto, Turkana governor Josphat Nanok – who is a former ally of Mr Odinga, former Cabinet secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri, former senators Boni Khalwale (Kakamega), Omar Hassan (Mombasa), and Johnson Muthama of Machakos.

Others are Murang’a Senator Irungu Kangata and former ANC party member and campaign manager for Mr Odinga, Eliud Owalo.

President Kenyatta’s Jubilee party and Mr Odinga’s ODM have also been receiving delegations of defectors seeking their blessings in the upcoming elections, including businessman Suleiman Shahbal who joined the Orange party with the hope of winning the Mombasa governorship seat.

Besides the businessman, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga have also roped in governors Salim Mvurya (Kwale), and his Tharaka Nithi counterpart Muthomi Njuki as well as MPs Sabina Chege (Murang’a), Malulu Injendi (Malava), David Pkosing (Pokot South) and Catherine Waruguru of Laikipia who previously supported Dr Ruto. Most of the rebels in Mr Odinga’s backyard who ran on other parties in 2017 have trooped back.

Mr Javas Bigambo, a political analyst, said the trend being witnessed was nothing new, but a mere strategy by politicians plotting for survival.

Prominent parties

“Such decamping is likely to be more among non-elected members before the 2022 General Election, purely for purposes of trying to look for good ground through which they can be elected, depending on where they want to run. Prominent parties tend to benefit from such switching. But it also demonstrates loose party membership and factionalism, pork-barrel politics and lack steadfastness,” he said.

In Mombasa, political pundits reckon that Shahbal needs the popular Western Kenya vote that supports Mr Odinga and his move to ODM was to help him capture it. But he will have to face strong opposition from Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir, who has labelled him as a serial defector.

 “I just pray that he does not defect again. You cannot move from one political party that believes in something else today, then jump to another the next day,” Mr Nassir said.

Mr Muthama, who is also the UDA party chairman and Mr Kangata, said their decision to defect to the hustler movement, was informed by Dr Ruto’s policies and vision for the common mwananchi.

“I am in Ruto’s camp because he understands problems of the common wananchi and that is why I am not into tribal inclinations,” Mr Muthama said.

In Mt Kenya, leaders leaving the President’s camp attributed the defections to lack of political directions from the President; leading to pressure from voters supporting DP, inadequate support from Jubilee to popularise the government agenda and the Head of State’s inaccessibility to politicians.

Numerous trips

The leaders said Mr Ruto’s numerous trips to Mt Kenya and other parts especially through churches have worked to endear him to the masses, leading to pressure from voters to join his camp.

The Tangatanga team has also wrongly blamed the Handshake for all ills of the government but the message has spread on, making it unpopular and leading to the rise in popularity of the DP.

 Mr Gikaria, who has been a vocal supporter of Mr Kenyatta, said he was compelled to shift allegiance after being subjected to pressure by his voters.

 “I will follow what my people say since they are my interest. There is no way I can force them to belong to a wing by force,” he said.

Mr Kangata, the Murangá senator, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and his Mathira counterpart Rigathi Gachagua, say that ground has shifted in the region and many of them would not want to be swept by ‘hustler nation’ wave, noting that what is going on forces leaders to shift not to lose their seats come next year.

State intimidations

“The ground is hustler and the clever ones are realising they must side with the people for their survival. More are on the way because some are just afraid of State intimidations,” Mr Nyoro revealed.

They also said the current political events were started by the Head of State when he declared that he will throw his support behind his deputy hence many feel that it will not be prudent to betray DP Ruto arguing that it will have a negative impact on the community’s political trust.

“President has the democratic right to support whoever he wants but some of us, including the people of Mount Kenya, would like to repay what was promised. The President will find himself alone in Nasa,” said Mr Gachagua, who once served as personal assistant to the President.

But President Kenyatta’s allies downplayed the defections saying his political support is still intact.

Imenti North MP Rahim Dawood shrugged off the ‘exodus’, saying the Tangatanga was employing a carrot-and-stick strategy to win them over.

“They (defections) are not a pointer to anything. Voters will support their preferred candidate irrespective of the party they are in. They will start moving back to Jubilee and there will be a fallout in UDA when Ruto picks a running mate,” Mr Dawood said.

Former Maragua MP Elias Mbau said what is happening is very normal in politics “and it is only the start of party hopping where all political formations will be affected.”

There is also concern that the region holds Mr Kenyatta’s March 2018 handshake with Raila Odinga in negative perceptions as well as his lack of preciseness of a succession plot throwing both politicians and voters into confusion and disarray.

It is a reality captured by Mr Gachagua in an interview last week saying Mr Odinga is a hard sell and a political problem in Mt Kenya.

Valuable players

However, supporters of President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga said the coalition of the two – who are the current leading proponents of the BBI initiative – would be unbeatable in the upcoming elections, insisting that the defections from Jubilee and ODM were inconsequential.

“As things stand, I will not be surprised if we lose another one or two more valuable players. We have some heavy lifting ahead to fix our party and not everyone will want to do it,” said Senate Majority Whip Kimani Wamatangi.

Githunguri MP Gabriel Kago, who was among those who announced their defection to the Ruto camp earlier this week, credited the DP for his easy accessibility by the political class including the ordinary citizens

“Mr Ruto has been building his relationship with us for the past nine years and has won our trust,” he said.

Lack of clear political direction on who he will specifically back for President has also led to confusion in the President’s camp. Though he has previously said that his choice will shock Kenyans, the Head of State has not made public the name of his preferred successor.

“The fear factor that was there has gone down. Those who were looking forward to Uhuru’s magic card are now disappointed. The Juja by-election result crystallised that belief that DP Ruto has the support of the people and many more will come,” Mr Kangáta said.

Mr Wamatangi, on the other hand, challenged those who claim to have defected from Mr Kenyatta’s camp to that of Tangatanga to resign and seek a fresh mandate.

“The Political Parties Act is very clear. If we are going to have a neat hygienic political system, if we are going to have an advancement in our political ideologies and deliver to this country. We need to start doing it to respect our laws as far as the Political Parties Act is concerned,” he said.

The woes in Jubilee are also causing indigestion. Recently, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru warned that many a politician’s futures are tied to Jubilee and all efforts must be made to restore it to a glorious past.

In the Rift Valley, Mr Ruto’s political bastion, opposed to him, are already feeling the heat as they face simmering rebellion from the electorate.

The Nation has established that politicians, who have been harsh critics of DP Ruto from the region, are under intense pressure to join his camp or face the wrath of the electorate in the 2022 polls.

Isolated man

Those opposed to DP Ruto are Governors Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru) and Alex Tolgos (Elgeyo Marakwet), MPs Alfred Keter (Nandi Hills), Joshua Kuttuny (Cherangany), Silas Tiren (Moiben), Swarup Mishra (Kesses) and Samuel Arama (Nakuru Town West).

Others include Narok North MP Moitalel Ole Kenta.  In Nakuru, Governor Kinyanjui, who initially was in good books, with at least all the 11 MPs, now cuts the image of an isolated man, with all the lawmakers supporting DP Ruto

Mr Kinyanjui’s move to support Uhuru-Raila faction, in a region that is largely pro-Ruto , may be detrimental to his political future.

The cosmopolitan county has huge pockets of Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kisii, Kamba and Maasai votes.

Despite Nakuru being a cosmopolitan county, two populous communities, the Kipsigis and the Kikuyu, determine who becomes the governor and senator in the region.

Most of the MPs,in Nakuru, have teamed up with Senator Susan Kihika, who is eyeing the coveted governor’s seat and have been criticising the way the county government affairs are being managed.

Governor Kinyanjui, however, has put up a strong face and asked leaders to stop engaging in early politics, ahead of 2022.

“The right time to campaign will come, but for now let us deliver on what we promised the electorate,” said the county chief in a previous interview.

However, it has emerged that most of the leaders who have been harsh critics of the DP from the region, are reconsidering their stands and could join his camp.

“When we are planning how to win the presidency in 2022, some people here are going behind our backs and undermining DP Ruto’s bid. You cannot oppose the Deputy President and expect to survive politically here (Uasin Gishu),” said an MP allied to DP Ruto.

Mr Keter has in the recent past gone silent and kept a low profile.

Sources now say elders and DP allies have been reaching out to the rebels to convince them to change their stands. If that happens, the defection season will continue in earnest.