With one round remaining in European World Cup qualifying, the race is hotting up for a place at Qatar 2022.
QUALIFIED: Germany, Denmark, Belgium, France, Croatia
Scotland, Wales, Czech Republic, Austria and Russia are the nations guaranteed to be in the playoffs.
That leaves five automatic qualification spots still up for grabs for group winners, along with eight playoff places for the group runners-up.
Here’s the state of play across all 10 groups.
GROUP A
Nov. 14: Luxembourg vs. Republic of Ireland, Portugal vs. Serbia
Portugal (17 points) drew level with Serbia (17 points) after being held to a 0-0 draw away to Republic of Ireland on Thursday. But it’s the Portuguese who top the group on goal difference.
It means Cristiano Ronaldo‘s team only need to avoid defeat at home to Serbia on Sunday in the final group game to qualify for the World Cup.
Serbia must win in Lisbon or they will be the team consigned to the playoffs.
Whoever finishes second is guaranteed to be seeded in the playoff draw.
GROUP B
Nov. 14: Greece vs. Kosovo, Spain vs. Sweden
Disaster struck for Sweden (15 points) after they lost in Georgia on Thursday. Victory for Spain (16 points) in Greece later sent them top of the group.
It comes down to the meeting between the two in Seville on Sunday — and now Spain only need to avoid defeat on home soil to win the group and go direct to the World Cup, leaving Sweden to the playoffs. It’s simply a must-win game for Sweden.
GROUP C
Nov. 15: Northern Ireland vs. Italy, Switzerland vs. Bulgaria
Jorginho’s late penalty miss in Italy’s 1-1 home draw with Switzerland means this group is absolutely on a knife-edge, with the two teams on 15 points. Italy hold the ace card, as their goal difference is +11 to Switzerland’s +9. However, Italy have to go to Northern Ireland in their final match, while the Swiss host Bulgaria which is, on paper at least, an easier tie.
The Swiss will need to either better Italy’s result on the final day, or win by at least two goals more if both teams get victories and the group would then first be decided on goal difference.
If Italy and Switzerland finish level on points and goal difference (and goals scored), it goes down to head to head, and Switzerland would then qualify on head-to-head away goals. So, for example, if Italy win 2-0 and Switzerland win 4-0, the two teams will have identical records but Switzerland win the group on H2H.
If Italy and Switzerland both draw, Italy win the group.
If Italy and Switzerland both lose, the Swiss would have to lose by at least two fewer goals than Italy.
GROUP D
Nov. 16: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Ukraine, Finland vs. France
France (12 points) sealed their place at the World Cup with am 8-0 win over Kazakhstan on Saturday.
Finland (11 points) moved into second with victory over Bosnia, who are now eliminated, and must win at home to France on Nov. 16 to definitely secure the playoff place. They will be second regardless if Ukraine do not win in Bosnia.
Ukraine (9 points) now know they must win in Bosnia to make the playoffs, with Finland losing or drawing against France. If Finland lose, Ukraine go to the playoffs with any win.
If Finland draw and Ukraine win, it comes down to goal difference. If Ukraine win by one goal, goal difference would be level and it would come down to goals scored (as it stands, Finland have 10 goals and Ukraine 9). If goals scored also finishes level, Ukraine are second on head to head record.
GROUP E
Nov. 16: Czech Republic vs. Estonia, Wales vs. Belgium
Belgium (19 points) qualified for the World Cup with their 3-1 win at home to Estonia.
Wales (14 points) are second ahead of Czech Republic (11 points), and both are assured of a playoff place via the UEFA Nations League if they finish third. However, Wales need at least a point at home to Belgium guarantee finishing second and have a chance of being seeded in the playoff draw. They will also finish second with a defeat if Czech Republic fail to beat Estonia.
For Czech Republic to finish second, they have to win at home to Estonia, and need Wales to lose, meaning the two teams will finish level on points. The Czechs (+3) must then finish with better goal difference than Wales (+5). If goal difference finishes level, second place would be decided on group goals scored.
If records finish identical, Wales win the head to head. This can only happen if Wales lose and Czech Republic win by the same one-goal scoreline.
GROUP F
Nov. 15: Austria vs. Moldova, Israel vs. Faroe Islands, Scotland vs. Denmark
Denmark have qualified and still have a 100% record, while Scotland will be in the playoffs.
However, Scotland may need at least a point at home to Denmark to be seeded in the playoff draw.
Austria won’t finish inside the top two, but are guaranteed of being unseeded in the playoffs as a UEFA Nations League group winner.
GROUP G
Nov. 16: Gibraltar vs. Latvia, Montenegro vs. Turkey, Netherlands vs. Norway
Vastly superior goal difference effectively means Netherlands (20 points) will only need a point at home to Norway to qualify for the World Cup. They could only miss out with a draw if Turkey (18 points) win in Montenegro by at least 13 goals.
However, Netherlands would miss out on the playoffs and finish third in the group if they lose to Norway (18 points) and Turkey win.
Turkey are level with Norway, but hold second on goal difference (by one goal) following their 6-0 win over Gibraltar. Turkey know that a win away to Montenegro guarantees at least a playoff place.
If Turkey (GD +10) and Norway (GD +9) both win, Netherlands are out and first and second will be decided goal difference. Turkey can only top the group if both they and Norway win. Turkey, who have scored 10 more goals than Norway, would need to win by the same score margin, or one goal fewer, to finish top on goal difference or goals scored.
A draw is definitely enough for Turkey for the playoffs if Norway lose.
If Norway win in the Netherlands, they get at least a playoff, and win the group if Turkey fail to win. If Turkey win, Norway must win by two goals more than Turkey to overtake them on goal difference. A draw is enough for the playoffs if Turkey lose.
If Turkey and Norway draw, Turkey are second on goal difference.
If Turkey and Norway both lose, it will again come down to goal difference, so Norway would need Turkey to lose by a two-goal greater margin.
Turkey and Norway won’t finish with identical records as Norway would need to win 12-10, even if Turkey only won 1-0.
GROUP H
Croatia got the win they needed against Russia in split to climb above their visitors and top the group.
Fedor Kudryashov scored an own goal in the 81st minute to give Croatia and 1-0 win.
Russia will have to go through the playoffs, where they will be seeded.
GROUP I
Nov. 15: Albania vs. Andorra, Poland vs. Hungary, San Marino vs. England
England (23 points) have qualified in all but name, needing a point away to San Marino to be mathematically sure of going direct to the World Cup.
Even if England were to suffer a shock defeat, Poland (20 points) would need a goal-difference swing of six goals from a victory against Hungary to top the group.
But there is still something for Poland to play for, as they may require a positive result against Hungary to have a chance of being seeded in the playoffs.
GROUP J
Nov. 14: Armenia vs. Germany, Liechtenstein vs. Romania, North Macedonia vs. Iceland
With Germany already having secured their place, it’s now a three-way battle for the playoff spot.
North Macedonia (15 points) have it in their own hands and will definitely be in the playoffs with a win at home to Iceland on Sunday. They will also progress if Romania fail to beat Liechtenstein.
Due to vastly inferior goal difference, Romania (14 points) must beat Liechtenstein and hope North Macedonia lose or draw.
Armenia have a mere mathematical chance, as they would have to beat Germany, hope North Macedonia lose and Romania don’t win, while overturning a goal difference deficit of 18.
Whoever finishes second is guaranteed to be unseeded in the playoff draw.
HOW THE PLAYOFFS WORK
The 10 runners-up from the groups are joined by the best two UEFA Nations League group winners not to have finished in the top two of their qualifying group.
We now know that Austria and whoever misses out on the top two from Group E between Czech Republic and Wales will qualify via the Nations League.
The playoffs, to be played in March 2022, will be seeded by qualifying points, with the two UEFA Nations League teams unseeded. The draw takes place on Friday, Nov. 26.
Seeded teams will be drawn at home against unseeded teams, to play one-legged semifinals.
SEEDED: Russia
UNSEEDED: Austria
POT TBC: Czech Republic, Scotland, Wales
The finals will see the winners of SF1 play SF2, SF3 vs. SF4 and SF5 vs. SF6. There will be a draw to determine the home team in each final path.
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