THE STRANGE INDIAN OCEAN event causing heavy rains in Kenya

Saji recently warned a positive IOD was back and would peak in November, leading to heavier rains in Kenya and other East African countries. During a positive IOD, sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean near Africa’s east coast are warmer than usual, and that evaporation is dumped inside Eastern Africa in form of excessive rains. In September, Saji told Weather.com that positive IODs tend to occur every 10 years.

INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE INDEX 2015 – 2019

 “I mostly fear about the situation in East Africa, which is vulnerable even without an adverse climate event. We are talking about millions of people being displaced, emergence of Rift Valley fever and other flood-related issues as experienced during the strong IOD of 2006,” he said.

The Kenya Meteorological Department has also attributed the ongoing heavy rains to the dipole. The department said the rains would be heaviest in November, and could cause destruction and deaths. “This constitutes a positive Indian Ocean Dipole that is favourable for good rainfall over much of East Africa,” said Met director Stella Aura. “In Western Kenya, where enhanced rainfall is expected, lightning strikes may occur, especially in counties such as Kisii, Kisumu, Kakamega and Bungoma [Mt Elgon areas]. Cases of flooding are also highly probable.”

By October 21, the heavy rains in Kenya had displaced at least 1,000 people and left at least 10 dead. In Baringo, leaders warned residents living in lower areas to move to higher ground to prevent deaths due to floods and landslides. Governor Stanley Kiptis urged residents living on the flat and hilly sides of Baringo South, Mogotio, Baringo North, Tiaty, Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine subcounties to take precaution. Other areas that suffer perennial floods and landslides are Sintaan, Ng’ambo in Marigat bordering Lake Baringo, and Kabasis, Salawa, Tenges and Timoboiwo in Baringo Central. “I want to urge my people to be watchful and tell others we are not ready to lose anybody because we heard the rain may continue until December,” Kiptis told the Star.

In Busia, county commissioner Jacob Narengo said the rains were becoming more dangerous and disastrous, and urged the disaster management committee to ensure no family lives along riverbanks. He spoke during Mashujaa Day celebrations at Kolanya Primary School, Teso. In Teso North and South in Busia county, more than 400 families need relief food after their homes, crops and animals were swept away by floodwaters. This was after the rivers Malakisi and Ang’olol broke their banks. Villages that have been hard hit by flash floods include Akiriamasit, Amoni, Onyunyur, Kamolo and Buria. Teachers were forced to close schools.

In Mandera, the heavy rains have caused Sh2 billion losses. Governor Ali Roba told the Star livestock have been killed and dams, water pans, properties, roads and underground tanks destroyed. “While we may not be able to correct all of the above to [their] original position, certainly we will respond to mitigate the impacts and reduce the severity of the negative impacts on humans,” he said.

In Wajir, leaders raised the alarm after one person and at least 900 animals died. Some of the worst-hit areas include Wargadud in Tarbaj subcounty, Elnoor in Eldas subcounty and Gurar, Adadijole, Dinikhu and Bosicha in Wajir North.

In Nyeri, county commissioner David Kipkemei urged people living in areas prone to landslides to move to safer areas. “Let us be keen so we don’t lose lives and property,” he said.

When Dr Saji introduced the world to the IOD through a research paper, ‘A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean’, in the Nature Journal in 1999, the scientific community scoffed at the idea. Most climate scientists had written off the Indian Ocean as capable of generating its own climate mode. Ten years later, Dr Saji’s paper had become one of the most cited papers in climate science. In 2009, Dr Saji said by understanding the IOD, countries such as Kenya could forestall disasters.

“The disastrous consequences of severe floods that displaced nearly two million people in East Africa and the severe drought that caused widespread wildfires in Indonesia and Malaysia, besides triggering unprecedented haze in neighboring countries during an IOD event in 2006, could have been managed better if the event was predicted in advance and affected countries were alerted to its possible impacts,” he told the Science Watch Magazine in September, 2009.