This NBA trade deadline will be a master class in risk tolerance

The Washington Wizards drafted Bradley Beal on his birthday in 2012, a serendipitous fact that long-standing members of the organization mention to this day.

The Wizards and their franchise player retain a bond that has stuck through early injury issues in his career, the unfortunate derailing of star teammate John Wall due to injury and the failed Russell Westbrook experiment, among other misadventures.

Washington is relying on that bond as it evaluates its options for the Feb. 10 trade deadline before what likely will be Beal’s first foray into unrestricted free agency.

Beal has made it clear he doesn’t plan to sign an extension and likely will skip his player option. That would make some teams nervous, but to this point there has been no real discussion of Beal on the trade market, league executives said.

The Wizards are preparing to roll the dice with the belief that Beal will re-sign.

Washington isn’t the only franchise measuring risk before Feb. 10. League executives and agents are approaching this trade season as a referendum on risk tolerance. A number of teams are sitting on the fence, with major decisions surrounding star players looming less than a month before the deadline.


Washington Wizards

Wizards owner Ted Leonsis, general manager Tommy Sheppard and Beal have a trust level and stay in communication. Beal was part of the decision to trade Westbrook last summer and was a lead recruiter in bringing in free agent Spencer Dinwiddie, team sources said. Beal and his family have forged a close relationship with new teammate Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Washington has another significant advantage.

A primary reason Beal isn’t extending now is because with such a contract he could fashion a four-year deal worth $181 million. If he opts out and signs a totally new agreement, the Wizards can offer five years and $241 million. If he were to leave to go to another team this summer, his max deal would be four years and $179 million.

In short: If Beal is prioritizing guaranteed money, he has a $60 million incentive to stay.

That reality and the team’s apparent willingness to eventually present a full five-year offer has led to a measure of calm within the organization about Beal’s intentions. However, that does not mean there isn’t risk to manage.

The Wizards started 13-7 but are just 10-14 since. They’ve improved since last season when they ended up with the No. 8 seed, but their positioning has slipped in a tougher Eastern Conference. They’re a team that might be able to use a boost at the deadline — and Beal could be watching.

“I’ve contributed to being here. I’ve committed to being here twice,” Beal said in a recent interview with Yahoo Sports. “Now, I want to see that commitment to me, as well, that we can create a winning team here, a winning environment here.”

Center Thomas Bryant has just returned after a yearlong recovery from a torn ACL to provide depth at center. As a result, rival executives believe the Wizards might entertain trading Montrezl Harrell as they look for help elsewhere.

The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which limits their trading options, but they could modify it and have two first-round picks to trade. But without Beal under contract, that is a risk.

The Wizards are only $1.7 million under the luxury tax, meaning a trade that takes on money would cause some pause. But remaining inactive at the deadline to avoid the tax might send another message to Beal.


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been looking at the same hand for months, as president Daryl Morey hasn’t seen a trade he liked for the disgruntled Ben Simmons. They are a good team and have been playing better of late, but they are not the great team they were last season when they earned the No. 1 seed in the East with Simmons playing.

Joel Embiid is having another spectacular season, and over the weekend he pointed out the Sixers were 21-9 (now 22-10) with him in the lineup. They are 9-2 since Christmas. For now, Embiid is sending the message that he isn’t itching for a Simmons trade to bring him help for the playoffs.

“There’s really no urgency to change anything. I think we got everything we need,” Embiid said last week. “We’re gonna keep on going, and I’m happy.”

Here is the risky decision facing Philly: either wait out the Simmons market and don’t import potential help for Embiid, or make a trade that doesn’t bring back an All-Star but still takes advantage of what so far has been a healthy and productive Embiid season.

Embiid’s mood on the matter and the support of owner Joshua Harris — who has made sudden pivots away from patience in the past and is paying the luxury tax this season for a team he thought would be a title contender — are variables to monitor in the coming weeks.


Utah Jazz

The Jazz have the No. 1 offense in the league by a relative mile, and before star defender Rudy Gobert went into the health and safety protocols earlier this month, they had the No. 5 defense. They have all the hallmarks of a championship contender, especially in superstar wing Donovan Mitchell.

But the past few weeks have seen some angst within the team. The defense collapsed with Gobert out, ranking 29th in the span, and a series of passive-aggressive actions in interviews and social media have followed.

Gobert and Mitchell have a history of tension that seems to have been inflamed, especially after Gobert praised the defensive intensity of Mitchell rival Devin Booker. It got to the point at which Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson issued a statement/plea for everyone to stop talking about one another and start playing defense.

The Jazz have subsequently been poking around the market for wing defenders, sources said, as new CEO Danny Ainge might have a big decision to make. The Jazz are good enough on paper to win the West, but the demands on Gobert in the playoffs are immense, which contributed to a deeply disappointing loss to the LA Clippers in the postseason last year despite Clippers star Kawhi Leonard suffering a partially torn ACL.

The risk for Utah: trade away some of the offensive talent to help Gobert and turn down the heat between him and Mitchell, or ride out the quality team it built and hope the defense is good enough under pressure.

“They’re seeing if they can find their own Aaron Gordon trade,” a rival general manager said, referring to the move the Denver Nuggets made to pick up the versatile defender from the Orlando Magic before last season’s trade deadline. “I’m not sure if they’ll find it.”

The player who most closely resembles that who might be available is Detroit Pistons forward Jerami Grant, but the Jazz might not be able to win a bidding contest if it comes to that. The Jazz have limited draft picks to offer in a deal — they already owe two future first-rounders and four second-rounders elsewhere over the next five years — and they lack attractive young talent.

Joe Ingles, who has played all eight of his NBA seasons for the Jazz, is well aware of this front-office conundrum and is mentally preparing for the unknown of deadline season. He’s in the final year of his contract, was in trade talks last offseason and has seen his numbers drop this year.

“If they decide they need to do something I would be happy for them if they thought they were getting better. I do love this organization and the city. We’re all here for the same reason — we’re here to try to win a championship and be the first [Jazz] team to do it,” Ingles said on his weekly radio appearance in Salt Lake City this month. “If I could be a piece that helps them do that, then I’d still feel pretty good about it. I’d be disappointed that I wasn’t here for it, but I’d be happy for a lot of people.”

Bojan Bogdanovic is two years younger than Ingles, is having another excellent season and has one year left on his deal. This makes him more attractive in a trade.

With the roster aging — Ingles is 34, Bogdanovic is soon to be 33 and guard Mike Conley is 34 — and the simmering Gobert-Mitchell dynamic, it might not be time to wait and see in Utah.

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