Fightnomics: What does history tell us about how UFC 301 could play out?
It’s long been common knowledge that Brazil is a tough place to fight an away game. Over the years, stories from American fighters have trickled through, including everything from facilities that make weight-cutting harder to the raucous and antagonistic crowd in the arena. Whatever the reason, the numbers do back Brazilians in their home cage.
Since 2011, Brazilians facing non-Brazilian opponents in events held in Brazil have a record of 225-127, excluding draws and no contests. That’s an impressive win percentage of 64%. Brazilians managed a winning record each year, save for 2019, when they closed the year 12-12 against foreign opponents. Their best year was 2011, when they won at an 88% clip, including a 7-1 record against non-Brazilians at UFC 134 in Rio de Janeiro.
However, matchmaking is one of the most critical factors in projecting an outcome. It’s been argued that matchmakers may lean towards favorable matchups for home-cage fighters, either deliberately or unconsciously. Giving hometown heroes a squash match could make for more highlight finishes while keeping the local ticket buyers happy. Regardless of why or how, a simpler view of the home-cage advantage is that Brazilians were supposed to win more often than not because they were favored to win.
The betting markets are pretty good at predicting favorites, and Brazilian home-cage fighters average -140 betting favorites. They were supposed to win, and they did. Looking a layer deeper would be to test whether Brazilians have been performing well against these high market expectations, rather than just straight up.
Using closing odds and removing the vigorish to get a true expected win probability, we can finally answer whether or not Brazilians are exceeding market expectations for a home-cage advantage. The answer is yes. Since 2011, Brazilians have been +20 in wins above their expected win rate of 205.
But a funny thing happened in 2019. For the first time, Brazilians failed to meet market expectations by winning just 12 fights when they were expected to win 12.9 based on closing line odds. That trend continued in 2020 and 2023, when the UFC returned to Brazil for the first time since the pandemic. The betting value in backing Brazilians from 2011 to 2018 appears to have disappeared. The market has gotten wise to their advantage, or the matchmaking has improved.
Since 2019, Brazilians in the home cage have been missing market expectations, albeit just barely. Any single loss during those years turned to a win would have swung them back into the net positive versus betting odds, so it’s not a big miss. But still, the early years of blindly backing Brazilians and walking away with a profit appeared to be gone.
Whenever there’s an inefficiency in a market, especially a highly competitive financial market such as sports betting, we should expect it to disappear with time. Brazilians are still being favored in their matchups in aggregate, but betting lines are finally accounting for that trend.
UFC 301 will feature 13 matchups between Brazilians and foreign opponents. Brazilians are favored in 10 matchups, and current betting lines expect them to win 8.3 fights. Will they beat expectations, or have handicappers and betting markets accurately priced them? The great thing about MMA is that we’ll have to watch Fight Night to find out.
UFC 301 stats to watch
Brazilian chalk
Betting Brazilians at UFC 301 will be expensive. As far as UFC events go, this fight card is chalky, with five different fighters seeing betting odds steeper than -400. All of those heavy favorites are Brazilians.
The UFC may be loading the card with fan-friendly matchups to hedge against the riskier matchups for the most notable Brazilians on the card.
Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja is a slight favorite (-190, per ESPN BET) over challenger Steve Erceg, but legendary former champ Jose Aldo is returning from a two-year “retirement” as a mild underdog (+130, per ESPN BET) to Jonathan Martinez. I agree with both prices in those fights.
Whether building chalky parlays or backing a big upset, UFC 301 has more steep line fodder than the typical event. Brazilians on the card have an average betting price of under -200.
The youth advantage
I’ve been a vocal proponent of the “youth advantage” in MMA, for reasons that include offensive, defensive and durability factors. I’m generally skeptical of high-level performers over the age of 35, but I’m also on the lookout for matchups where the age gap approaches 10 years. UFC 301 offers some interesting matchups where age is a vital issue.
Relative newcomers Iasmin Lucindo and Ismael Bonfim have extreme age advantages over their opponents, 16 and 14 years, respectively. Unsurprisingly, they are both heavy favorites, among the biggest on the card. It’s rare to see even a 10-year age gap in a UFC matchup, but these two are extreme.
Two fighters who will be significantly older than their opponents are former champ Aldo (7.6 years) and current champ Pantoja (5.3 years). As noted, Aldo is an underdog, while Pantoja is a mild favorite and still under the 35-year age threshold.
Gauging the grappler’s advantage
Two Brazilians who could have a massive ground control advantage over their opponents are Caio Borralho and Vitor Petrino. Whereas the average UFC fighter spends 15% of fight time controlling opponents on the ground, these two guys spend 40% or more, which is the highest metric for anyone on this card.
In turn, both of their opponents show up below average by the same metric. Anthony Smith spends just 6% of fight time in ground control, while Paul Craig scores 11%. Lopsided ground control metrics should mean that wrestling might be important to how the rounds develop. But it’s important to note that Smith and Craig also have submissions from their backs, meaning this dynamic could lead the Brazilians into a trap.
Hardest hitters at lower weight classes?
Martinez has scored more knockdowns in his UFC career (nine) than any fighter on the card. At 4.3%, his knockdowns scored per landed power head strike rate is the third highest on the card but arguably the best among established fighters.
Joanderson Brito (featherweight) and Bonfim (lightweight) have slightly higher knockdown rates historically, but have only scored one in their limited action to date in the UFC. Although there will be matchups at middleweight and light heavyweight, the fighters from the smaller weight classes will likely earn the performance bonuses in Rio.
Credit: Source link