There can only be one dark horse of the UFC’s middleweight division. This weekend’s UFC Fight Night main event will determine who it will be.
Surging 185-pounders Jack Hermansson (20-4) and Jared Cannonier (12-4) are scheduled to meet Saturday at Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The event will air on ESPN+ beginning at 11 a.m. ET.
It’s an interesting matchup in that both fighters arguably should have had their respective breakouts. Hermansson is coming off a complete five-round performance against one of the division’s best in Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. And Cannonier was last seen in May, putting down one of the greatest of all time in Anderson Silva.
Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event features two middleweights who are coming off the biggest wins of their careers. Jack Hermansson, who has won four straight fights, defeated Jacare Souza in April, and Jared Cannonier stopped Anderson Silva in May.
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
• Saturday, Copenhagen, Denmark
• Prelims: ESPN+, 11 a.m. ET
• Main card: ESPN+, 2 p.m. ET
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Cannonier, 35, is 2-0 since transforming his body in a drop from the 205-pound division. And Hermansson, a native of Sweden who fights out of Norway, is an impressive 7-2 inside the Octagon.
And yet, neither one of these middleweights will be next in line for the title with a win on Saturday. That spot is already unofficially reserved for the undefeated Paulo Costa, who will fly to Australia next week to witness a title unification bout between champion Robert Whittaker and interim champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 243.
Hermansson and Cannonier, despite their recent accolades, are still this division’s best-kept secrets — but that has to change eventually. Three of the biggest middleweight names of the last decade — Souza, Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold — have moved up to light heavyweight. Another, Yoel Romero, has considered it.
One of the two men in Saturday’s main event is the real dark horse of this division and will get his shot at shaking it up. Which will it be? That’s the question to be answered at the UFC’s first live event in Denmark.
By the numbers
1: Fighters in modern-era UFC history with knockout wins in three weight classes. That fighter is Cannonier, who did it at heavyweight, light heavyweight and middleweight.
7: Middleweight victories in the UFC by Hermansson, the most in that division since 2016.
+2.87: Significant strike differential of Hermansson, which according to UFC Stats is the highest in middleweight history.
5.24: Significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC by Hermansson, the fourth-highest total in middleweight history, according to UFC Stats.
67.4: Significant strikes successfully defended in the UFC by Cannonier, by percentage, the ninth highest among active fighters, according to UFC Stats.
Source: ESPN Stats & Information research
A (supersized) look back
For a deeper look at Cannonier’s evolution from heavyweight to middleweight, click here.
Five vs. five
Jack Hermansson’s most recent results
Win: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (UD, April 27, 2019)
Win: David Branch (SUB1, March 30, 2019)
Win: Gerald Meerschaert (SUB1, Dec. 15, 2018)
Win: Thales Leites (TKO3, May 12, 2018)
Loss: Thiago Santos (TKO1, Oct. 28, 2017)
Jared Cannonier’s most recent results
Win: Anderson Silva (TKO1, May 11, 2019)
Win: David Branch (TKO2, Nov. 3, 2018)
Loss: Dominick Reyes (TKO1, May 19, 2018)
Loss: Jan Blachowicz (UD, Dec. 16, 2017)
Win: Nick Roehrick (TKO3, July 7, 2017)
Fighting words
“Almost every fight, I need to travel far to enemy territory. It’s a nice feeling to be fighting close to home, where friends, family and fans are going to be able to see me live. I want to grow into the role as the leading martial artist here in Scandinavia, especially now that Alexander Gustafsson has stepped down. I think it’s time for somebody to take over the throne, and I think that guy has got to be me.” –Hermansson, speaking to ESPN
Film study
Take a look at what Hermansson did to Jacare:
Brett Okamoto’s pick
Hermansson was beyond impressive in his most recent bout against Souza. Truth is, the best years of Souza’s career might be behind him, but he was a step up in competition for Hermansson and was one win away from a UFC title shot when he ran into him in April. Hermansson beat him for 25 minutes, rather soundly. Cannonier has flashed, big time, in this division, and his potential here is real, but in a five-round main event, I like Hermansson’s skill set. Hermansson via TKO, fourth round.
Waiting in the wings
Hermansson has openly said he was hoping Saturday’s fight would be against Kelvin Gastelum, not Cannonier. But Gastelum, No. 3 in ESPN’s middleweight rankings (Hermansson is No. 6 and Cannonier is unranked), was not ready for a September fight, and now Gastelum is booked for November against Darren Till. So Gastelum is not exactly sitting around waiting in any wings. But he might be an interested viewer this weekend. Neither he nor Hermansson (and certainly not Cannonier) is likely to get the winner of next week’s Whittaker-Adesanya title fight.
What else to look for … beyond the main event
2 Related
Wrestling with history
A word of caution for Madsen (8-0) going into his fight with Danilo Belluardo (12-4): According to ESPN Stats & Information, Madsen will be the fourth fighter in 2019 to make a UFC debut in a co-main event — and all of the previous three lost.
Mission submission
Gunnar Nelson has six submission wins in the UFC at welterweight, tying him with Chris Lytle for most in division history. He can break that tie on Saturday, but it will be no easy task. Nelson (17-4-1) faces Gilbert Burns, who in 19 career fights has never been tapped. In fact, the Brazilian has a shot at making submission history, too. Burns (16-3) has three armbar subs during his UFC career, one shy of the record held by Royce Gracie and Demetrious Johnson. His challenge: Nelson has never been subbed, either.
Rowdy Macy?
Macy Chiasson (6-0), who faces Lina Lansberg (9-4) in a bantamweight prelim, will be seeking to join Ronda Rousey as the only female fighters to start their UFC careers 4-0 with all of the wins coming by stoppage. Chiasson has two wins by KO/TKO and one by submission.
The Scandinavian contingent
For this inaugural UFC event in Denmark, all three Scandinavian countries are represented — two of them by one main event fighter. Hermansson was born and raised in Sweden but now fights out of Oslo, Norway. Lansberg also is from Sweden. And Madsen and welterweight Nicolas Dalby (who faces Brazil’s Alex Oliveira) are fighting in their home country.
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