Now that the NBA trade deadline has passed, teams can start to plan for the offseason, where there will be no shortage of storylines — despite a shortage of cap space around the league.
The 2022 free-agent class is average at best, thanks to many star players signing extensions in recent years. Additionally, there is a lack of spending power among teams, with only a handful projected to have significant space under the cap. Despite that, there are two All-Star guards who will draw significant attention this summer: Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal.
Lillard is not a free agent, but his future is anything but certain as the Portland Trail Blazers undergo a roster transformation.
The decision for Beal centers around his $36.4 million player option.
He can decline the option and sign a five-year $246 million contract to remain with the Washington Wizards or opt in and ask to be traded to a team that does not have cap space. He would then be eligible to sign a four-year, $200 million extension with his new team six months after the trade.
But before any of that can happen, there is still the matter of contenders looking to make one final boost for 2022 via players who get bought out by March 1.
Buyout players
The second transaction season started when the trade deadline expired at 3:01 p.m. ET on Thursday. Buyouts will once again play a role in playoff teams strengthening their roster for the final months.
For a player to be eligible for the playoffs with his new team, he must be waived by his previous team by 11:59 p.m. ET on March 1. Players signed to a 10-day contract also are playoff eligible, even if the contract expires after March 1.
The big name to keep an eye on this year is Goran Dragic, who has not played in an NBA game since November. He was traded to San Antonio at the deadline and was recently bought out of his $19.4 million contract. Dragic has 56 career playoff games under his belt and helped the Miami Heat reach the Finals in the bubble in 2020.
One player who will likely have to wait until the offseason to find a new home is the Rockets John Wall. He has $60 million left on his contract ($13 million this year) and Wall has been reluctant to take a significant buyout, even if that meant coming off the bench for a contending team.
Below are the potential buyout candidates (along with current free agents) and open roster spots:
Potential buyout candidates and free agents: Robin Lopez (Orlando), TJ Warren (Indiana), Tomas Satoransky (San Antonio), Rodney Hood (LA Clippers), Tristan Thompson (Sacramento), Ben McLemore (Portland), Gary Harris (Orlando), Kent Bazemore (Lakers), Gorgui Dieng (Atlanta), DeAndre Jordan (Lakers), DJ Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams and Enes Freedom.
Open roster spots: Atlanta, Boston (3), Charlotte, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Miami (2), Milwaukee (3), Minnesota, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto, Utah and Washington.
2022 free agents
Once you get past the names of Beal, Kyrie Irving and Zach LaVine, the 2022 free-agent class is average at best — and that assessment is probably being too kind.
Once upon a time, veterans like Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle and Jonas Valanciunas were set to become free agents this summer, joining a class of 2018 draft picks led by Luka Doncic and Trae Young. Instead, they all signed contract extensions in the offseason, taking them off the board.
Outside of the group of free agents led by LaVine, the headliners are a pair of restricted free agents, the Hornets’ Miles Bridges and Suns’ Deandre Ayton.
It was reported that new 76ers guard James Harden opted in to the final year of his deal as part of the trade to Philadelphia. However, because there was a time crunch to finalize the trade by 3 p.m. ET., the paperwork to opt in to his contract was not finalized. Harden is still eligible to opt into his contract up until the end of June and is expected to do so. But for now he remains on the list of available free agents.
Here is a list of the top free agents broken down by their position, age and current salary:
Note: The list of free agents is not broken down by their ranking.
Others: Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragic, Lou Williams, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Goodwin (R), Trey Burke (P), Facundo Campazzo (R), Austin Rivers, Cory Joseph (P), Kendrick Nunn (P), Tomas Satoransky, Elfrid Payton, Dennis Smith Jr., Aaron Holiday (R), Raul Neto, Delon Wright and Michael Carter-Williams.
Others: Troy Brown Jr. (R), Gary Harris, Bryn Forbes, Bruce Brown Jr., Matt Thomas (R), Frank Jackson (T), Rodney McGruder, Damion Lee, Kent Bazemore, Avery Bradley, Wayne Ellington, Jarrett Culver, Wesley Matthews, E’Twaun Moore, Ben McLemore and Isaac Bonga.
Others: Joe Ingles, Amir Coffey (R), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Kevin Knox II (R), Josh Jackson, Rodney Hood, Gary Clark, Kessler Edwards (R), Cody Martin (R), Davon Reed (R), Juan Toscano-Anderson, Jordan Nwora (R), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (P), Jake Layman, Svi Mykhailiuk (P), Tony Snell, Ish Wainright (R), Abdel Nader (T), Solomon Hill, Semi Ojeleye and KZ Okpala (R).
Others: Carmelo Anthony, James Johnson, Jalen McDaniels (P), Paul Millsap, Oshae Brissett (T), Blake Griffin, Anthony Gill (R), Udonis Haslem, Yuta Watanabe, Isaiah Roby (T), Trevor Ariza, Nemanja Bjelica, Andre Iguodala, Isaiah Hartenstein, Markieff Morris, Dean Wade (T), Eric Paschall (R) and Bol Bol (R).
Others: Bismack Biyombo, Serge Ibaka, Naz Reid (T), Dewayne Dedmon, Jalen Smith, Frank Kaminsky, Robin Lopez, Udonis Haslem, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Cody Zeller, Damian Jones, Hassan Whiteside, Bruno Fernando, Luka Garza (T), Tristan Thompson, Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, DeMarcus Cousins, Enes Freedom, Gorgui Dieng, Derrick Favors (P), JaVale McGee, Mike Muscala, Derrick Favors (P), Thomas Bryant
The extension class
Including Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James (eligible for an extension starting on Sept. 30), there are 128 veterans and rookies who will be extension-eligible in the offseason, with 35 of those players being categorized as franchise players, All-NBA, All-Star or top starters.
The list starts with last year’s MVP Nikola Jokic, who is eligible to sign a five-year, $254 million extension — the largest in NBA history.
Not every player however is guaranteed to receive a lucrative extension. Take the examples of Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard and former No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson.
Lillard signed a four-year, $176 million supermax extension in 2019, and Portland can tack on an additional $106.6 million this summer. However, Lillard would be 35 when the two-year extension starts in 2025-26, making it a risky play for Portland.
Williamson has played in a total of only 85 games in three seasons and has not stepped on the court this year for the New Orleans Pelicans. The No. 1 pick of 2019 is eligible for a five-year, $182 million extension — a deal that is no longer seen as automatic given Williamson’s injury issues.
Below are the extension eligible players to keep an eye on:
- Franchise: LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Damian Lillard.
- All-NBA: Devin Booker and Ja Morant.
- All-Star: James Harden*, Khris Middleton, Jaylen Brown, *Kyrie Irving, Domantas Sabonis, Fred VanVleet, Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson and Darius Garland.
- Top Starter: Dillon Brooks, Gordon Hayward, Bojan Bogdanovic, *Russell Westbrook, Joe Harris, Myles Turner, Jerami Grant, Pascal Siakam, Christian Wood, Tobias Harris, Lu Dort, D’Angelo Russell, CJ McCollum, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, RJ Barrett, Matisse Thybulle and Tyler Herro.
*- Player Option
If history repeats itself, expect more players securing financial security now and not waiting until free agency.
In the past two offseasons, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Julius Randle, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid have signed contract extensions before even reaching free agency.
Teams with projected cap space
What started as only three teams with projected cap space, grew to five when Indiana and Portland cleared salary at the deadline.
That list can still increase if a team like Memphis does not re-sign a player like free agent Tyus Jones or a team dumps salary to pursue Bradley Beal.
Detroit Pistons
Projected room: $23 million.
Who returns: Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, Hamidou Diallo (team option), Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Frank Jackson (team option), Saben Lee, Isaiah Livers and Luka Garza (team option).
Who might be gone: Marvin Bagley III and Rodney McGruder.
Other charges: 2022 first-round pick, DeAndre Jordan ($7.8M), Dewayne Dedmon ($2.9M) and Zhaire Smith ($1.1M).
This would be the third consecutive season that the Pistons act as a room team.
However, the projected cap space does not take into account recently acquired Bagley, who will be a restricted free agent this summer. If Detroit decides that Bagley is part of the team’s future, Detroit’s cap space will shrink because of his free-agent hold.
The Pistons do have $10 million in team options (Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson and Luke Garza) that could be declined to increase available cap space.
The big offseason question in Detroit is not how the team utilizes its cap space but the future of Jerami Grant. The forward is set to enter the last year of this contract and is eligible for a four-year, $113 million extension.
Indiana Pacers
Projected room: $23 million.
Who returns: Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Buddy Hield, Goga Bitadze, Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson, Oshae Brissett and Keifer Sykes.
Who might be gone: Ricky Rubio, T.J. Warren, Jalen Smith, Lance Stephenson and Tristan Thompson.
Other charges: 2022 first-round picks (own and Cleveland).
The Pacers joined the teams with cap space when they moved Caris LeVert to Cleveland. Now with a projected $23 million at their disposal, the Pacers have several options, including renegotiating the contract of Myles Turner.
Turner is entering the last year of his contract and the Pacers can increase his $18 million salary for 2022-23. Turner is also extension eligible.
Orlando Magic
Projected room: $26 million.
Who returns: Terrence Ross, Markelle Fultz, Jonathan Isaac, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Chuma Okeke, R.J. Hampton and Moritz Wagner.
Who might be gone: Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Bol Bol and Robin Lopez.
Other charges: 2022 first-round pick.
Despite Orlando having cap space for the first time since 2017, don’t expect a spending spree.
The Magic have prioritized player development (five players on rookie-scale contracts), and their big offseason additions will be the returns of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. Neither player has appeared in a game this season while recovering from an injury.
We should also put an asterisk on the projected cap space because it does include the $22.7 million free-agent hold of restricted free agent Mo Bamba.
Portland Trail Blazers
Projected room: $21 million.
Who returns: Damian Lillard, Josh Hart (contract guaranteed), Justise Winslow, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Greg Brown III, Didi Louzada and Anfernee Simons (free-agent hold).
Who might be gone: Eric Bledsoe (waived), Jusuf Nurkic, Joe Ingles, Elijah Hughes, Ben McLemore, CJ Elleby.
Other charges: Andrew Nicholson and two 2022 first-round picks (their own and New Orleans).
To be blunt, this is the most important offseason in franchise history.
Portland has cap flexibility and potentially two lottery picks to reshape its roster around Lillard. The Blazers also have a $21 million trade exception to use if they decide to operate as an over-the-cap team instead.
However, what happens if the Trail Blazers strike out and do not upgrade the roster? Will Lillard ask out, or is he content about being on a rebuilding team? The guard is eligible to sign a two-year, $106.6 million extension in July.
San Antonio Spurs
Projected room: $17 million.
Who returns: Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott, Jakob Poeltl, Zach Collins (partial guarantee), Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, Joshua Primo, Jock Landale (non-guaranteed), Tre Jones (non-guaranteed) and Keita Bates-Diop (non-guaranteed).
Who might be gone: Tomas Satoransky and Goran Dragic.
Other charges: Lonnie Walker IV ($13.3 million free-agent hold) and 2022 first-round picks (own, Toronto and Boston).
In the past two years, San Antonio has embraced the retooling phase of its roster.
Not only have the Spurs added players in free agency with cap space (Doug McDermott and Zach Collins), but they also have taken back unwanted salary (Al-Farouq Aminu, Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky and Goran Dragic), adding three future first-round picks in the process.
The Spurs project to have $16.5 million of room, but that number could increase to $30 million if restricted free agent Lonnie Walker IV is not brought back.
The wild cards
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is at a critical point as it relates to the future of Kyrie Irving, who holds a $36.9 million player option for 2022-23. The Nets have a decision to make on whether they should commit to a long-term contract. If Irving declines his option, he would be eligible to sign a five-year, $246 million contract to stay in Brooklyn.
With Irving, Simmons and Durant on the roster, Brooklyn has $158 million in committed salary and nine players under contract.
Houston Rockets
There will be eventual closure regarding the future of John Wall, who has not played a single game this season and is owed $47.4 million in 2022-23.
If a buyout is reached (or a possible trade), the Rockets would then have significant cap space. Besides Wall, there is also the future of Christian Wood and Eric Gordon to watch.
Wood is entering the last year of his contract and is eligible to receive a four-year, $77 million extension.
Gordon was not traded at the deadline and is expected once again to garner interest from teams. He has two years remaining on this contract, the second year non-guaranteed.
Los Angeles Lakers
How does a team that underachieved this season and has $145 million in salary in 2022-23 reshape their roster?
It starts with Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook has a $47.1 million player option (that he will likely opt into), and while there is no incentive to entertain buyout talks from either side, the future of the former MVP is anything but certain. Outside of Westbrook, the Lakers have the contracts of Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn (if he opts in) and two first-round picks (2027 and 2029) to use in a trade.
Memphis Grizzlies
Since Zach Kleiman took over in 2019, Memphis has been in the position to use cap space to add free agents. However, the Grizzlies have chosen a different path, electing to build the roster in the draft, via trades and re-signing their own free agents.
Memphis could have up to $20 million in room if it chooses not to re-sign free agents Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson.
Minnesota Timberwolves
After years of finding themselves in the bottom of the Western Conference, the Timberwolves are a playoff team this year but now face the question of how this roster takes the next step.
Minnesota is not projected to have cap space but is well below the luxury tax line, allowing the team to take an aggressive approach either using its full $10.3 million midlevel exception or acquiring a player in a sign-and-trade.
New York Knicks
The Knicks have spent the last three offseasons playing the cap space game.
Although they do not have room this summer, the Knicks have four players — Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Kemba Walker and Nerlens Noel — who are either in the last year of their contract or have a team option in 2022-23.
New York has all its future first-round picks along with the Mavericks top-10 protected first in 2023.
Oklahoma City Thunder
From the end of the regular season, the Thunder are in a use-it-or-lose-it scenario with their remaining $33 million of cap space. Oklahoma City was in the same position last year and traded for the max contract of Kemba Walker, adding more draft picks in the process.
While the Thunder have only $66 million in guaranteed salary next season, they’ll be right at the cap line when accounting for $33 million in dead cap space (from waiving Walker), an additional $6.6 million in non-guaranteed contracts, and cap holds on their three first-round picks.
Out of the players under contract, only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Derrick Favors (who holds a player option for 2022-23) earn north of $10 million.
Washington Wizards
The path that Bradley Beal chooses will determine what direction the Wizards go this offseason.
Either the All-Star is going to sign a max contract worth $246 million over five years (he could sign a shorter-term deal as well) or Beal is going to ask Washington to work out a trade to his preferred destination.
If Beal does return, the Wizards will be over the salary cap. In the scenario that Washington lets Beal walk for nothing, the Wizards will have more than $35 million in room.
Resources outside of cap space
The sign-and-trade
As the Miami Heat have proved multiple times, you don’t need cap space to improve your roster in the offseason. In 2019, the Heat orchestrated a sign-and-trade deal to bring All-Star Jimmy Butler over from Philadelphia. They did it again last summer, adding Kyle Lowry from Toronto.
The Chicago Bulls transformed their roster last year when they acquired both DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball via a sign-and-trade. In total 26 players have been acquired in a sign-and-trade transaction, including 10 this past offseason.
One downside to this type of transaction is that it subjects a team to the hard cap, restricting the options to add in free agency and trades.
Midlevel exceptions
The 25 teams not expected to have cap space will have either the $10.3 million or $6.3 million midlevel exception available to sign free agents outside of their own. The smaller exception applies to the 13 teams who are either already over the luxury tax apron or approaching the threshold (meaning spending the full midlevel would put them over). The hard cap line is set at $153.6 million this summer.
Here is a complete breakdown of teams and which midlevel exception they are expected to have:
- $10.3 million midlevel: Charlotte, Cleveland, Houston, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, New York, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Toronto and Washington.
- $6.3 million midlevel: Atlanta, Boston, Brooklyn, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, LA Lakers, LA Clippers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Utah.
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