MLB All-Star Game voting is a bit more complicated than the days when ushers handed out paper ballots at the ballpark and fans spent the next few innings poking little holes in them, leaving the stands strewn with tiny paper dots.
The first portion of this year’s outcomes was revealed Thursday, when the leading vote-getter in each league was identified and the finalists for the other starting spots were announced. The Phase 1 winners were no surprise: Shohei Ohtani in the American League (as a DH) and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. in the National League were selected as automatic starters on July 11 in Seattle.
Now it’s time for Phase 2. Beginning today, fans have four days to vote among the finalists at each non-pitching position. Fans can vote once per day, and now that we are on to Phase 2, the Phase 1 vote totals have been reset at zero. The results from Phase 2, which closes Thursday at noon ET, will be revealed that evening on ESPN (7 ET), giving us our 2023 All-Star Game starters.
So where do things stand? Let’s take it position by position, looking at who made Phase 2, who was left out, how we might consider the finalists and what the Phase 1 results tell us.
First, a caveat: In judging players, we’re focusing solely on the current season and what we’ve seen over the first three months. To pull in results from last year, while a reasonable approach, just doesn’t strike the right chord. This is the 2023 All-Star Game, and it should reflect the 2023 season.
This also gives us a chance to look at some standouts who are driving the narratives of the season in various ways and who may — or may not — have been overlooked in the fan balloting.
American League
So while we’ve got a similar mix of names between the voting and the metrics, there is one notable difference in that Guerrero finished first among the fans despite ranking outside the top six by AXE. (He’s sixth among primary first basemen, at 106.)
Well, AXE would like to have seen the underrated Lowe as a finalist, but it’s very much on board with Diaz. Now that he’s up against Guerrero in Phase 2, it’s a pretty clear choice. Diaz has created 54 runs while using 181 outs at the plate; Guerrero has created 46 runs and used 228 outs. Diaz has a .922 OPS; Guerrero is at .807. Diaz also has better fielding metrics.
I get it: Guerrero is a superstar and one of the game’s most popular players. If you were drafting a team from scratch for the actual season, you’d pick him over Diaz every time. But this is an All-Star Game and Diaz has enjoyed a much better first half.
First base
Top five by voting: 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (1,632,519); 2. Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays (1,567,748); 3. Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees (637,851); 4. Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers (598,788); 5. Ty France, Seattle Mariners (353,674)
Top five by AXE: 1. Diaz (121 AXE); 2. Lowe (116); 3. Ryan Noda, Oakland Athletics (113); 4. Rizzo (109); 5. France (108)
First of all, Blue Jays and Rays players did great in the overall balloting. While the Rays have played more than well enough to deserve it, the Blue Jays might have been a bit overrepresented in the upper reaches of the balloting. That shows in not just how well the current Jays did but also in the showing of some players who recently played in Toronto but don’t any longer, like Marcus Semien and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Second base
Top five by voting: 1. Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers (1,943,085); 2. Whit Merrifield, Toronto Blue Jays (1,030,308); 3. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (815,406); 4. Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels (520,595); 5. Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees (382,390)
Top five by AXE: 1. Semien (129); 2. Merrifield (109); 3. Mauricio Dubon, Houston Astros (109); 4. Drury (109); 5. Torres (105)
The fans almost nailed this position except they picked the wrong Astro, as Altuve was recognized more for his career than what he’s done during an injury-plagued first half. Dubon has played about twice as many games at the keystone this season for Houston than Altuve, and he’s been terrific, helping keep the battered defending champs afloat. To be fair, fans would have had to write Dubon in, as Altuve was on the ballot and he was not. But it would have been worth the effort.
Still, the finalists are Semien and Merrifield, as they should be. And the Phase 2 choice is in the no-brainer category, with Semien putting up an MVP-esque season for the frontrunning Rangers. The gap in the Phase 1 voting suggests fans have noticed this already.
Third base
Top five by voting: 1. Josh Jung, Texas Rangers (1,243,366); 2. Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays (1,218,397); 3. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (646,117); 4. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (617,327); 5. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (437,768)
Top five by AXE: 1. Ramirez (132); 2. (tie) Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays; Chapman (122); 4. Jung (118); 5. Bregman (114)
This looks like a mild miss by the voters, if an understandable one. Jung is having a terrific season, especially in the power department, and he’s an AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner to boot. People in Texas are very excited about the Rangers, as they should be. But the choice of Jung as a finalist over the well-established Ramirez is unfortunate, if only a little bit.
Of the third basemen listed above, Ramirez leads in runs created and OPS+. He’s stolen the most bases and laps the field in win probability added, a category in which Chapman has actually been a net negative. Still, Chapman and Ramirez are the top two by WAR and those would have been my finalists.
Instead, we get Jung and Chapman, and that race is close. The AXE gap (122-118) is narrowly in favor of Chapman, who I’d pick because of the glove. But the outcome of this Phase 2 race will be one of the more interesting to follow.
Shortstop
Top five by voting: 1. Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (2,101,523); 2. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (1,287,023); 3. Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (639,043); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (384,385); 5. Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels (366,162)
Top five by AXE: 1. Franco (134); 2. Bichette (132); 3. Seager (129); 4. Neto (114); 5. J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners (113)
No qualms here. While Franco is the AXE leader, the scores of the top three are all at MVP level, so Bichette and Seager are more than worthy as the finalists. The trajectory of Franco’s season has been one of gradual regression, after early on it looked like he was going to take the AL’s MVP race by the collar. And some non-playing issues have led to a temporary timeout by his manager.
Between Seager and Bichette, if you take the first half as a whole, you’d probably lean toward Bichette. Seager has been positively spectacular. I mean, he’s got a 180 OPS+, which is just ridiculous. Bichette (137 OPS+) has been terrific as well and has a considerable edge in volume, as Seager missed a chunk of time with injury. Seager has closed the gap fast, though, and by the end of the season, this version of him seems certain to land at the center of MVP chatter.
Catcher
Top five by voting: 1. Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles (1,291,399); 2. Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers (969,250); 3. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals (852,055); 4. Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays (797,210); 5. Martín Maldonado, Houston Astros (370,643)
Top five by AXE: 1. Heim (125); 2. Rutschman (119); 3. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (107); 4. Connor Wong, Boston Red Sox (106); 5. Perez (105)
This seems like a good spot to drop in the observation that while those great old days when we punched out holes in paper ballots were fun, the voting results by that method often proved to be strange. It was very much a popularity contest, much more so than it seems to be now. In a time when we vote electronically, with relevant information close at hand, the results dovetail with the reality of actual performance better than ever.
So, yeah, Rutschman and Heim were great picks as the finalists at catcher for the Junior Circuit. Heim, a 28-year-old who entered this season with a .214 career average over 222 games, was not exactly a household name when the campaign started. But he’s been outstanding behind the plate for Texas, with a 122 OPS+ at the plate while rating as one of the top overall defenders in the game.
Meanwhile, Rutschman looked like a future superstar when he was drafted, looked like a future superstar when he debuted in the majors and, now, just 13 months into his big league career, he looks like a superstar in the present. He’ll see many more All-Star Games in his future. As for whether he starts this one, the Phase 2 voting will determine that. In terms of performance and the vote totals from Phase 1, it’s really close.
Outfield
Top 15 by voting: 1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (2,095,328); 2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (1,604,762); 3. Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays (1,564,098); 4. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (1,453,698); 5. Kevin Kiermaier, Toronto Blue Jays (960,953); 6. Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers (880,711); 7. George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays (866,516); 8. Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox (771,214); 9. Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays (701,110); 10. Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers (675,093); 11. Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners (575,602); 12. Leody Taveras, Texas Rangers (551,986); 13. Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (517,924); 14. Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles (443,247); 15. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (376,992)
Top 15 by AXE: 1. Arozarena (131); 2. Judge (129); 3. Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox (127); 4. Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox (127); 5. Alvarez (126); 6. Garcia (124); 7. Trout (121); 8. Hays (120); 9. Kiermaier (118); 10. Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles (118); 11. Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners (117); 12. Lowe (117); 13. Taveras (116); 14. Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (115); 15. Rodriguez (112)
The old adage is that one way to judge the greatness of a player is to look at their worst seasons. That old saw certainly applies to Trout, who despite being on pace to play in his most games in seven years, is having a down season — a down season for him, that is. His 132 OPS+ is 35 points lower than he’s had in any season since his break-in season in 2011. Still, can we really ever call selecting Mike Trout to the All-Star team a “miss”?
AXE agrees with the fans on Judge and Arozarena as favorites to start. It also likes the picks of Alvarez and Garcia as finalists. That quartet will be joined in the Phase 2 voting by Trout and Kiermaier, both of whom sport AXE ratings to justify that level of support.
The misses among outfielders are two who were overlooked. One is Verdugo, who didn’t finish in the top 20 of AL Phase 1 voting. Meanwhile, Yoshida, his outfield teammate in Boston, just missed being a finalist. Their offensive numbers are a virtual match, but Verdugo has been markedly better at everything else.
Finally, perhaps as good a condemnation as anything of the White Sox’s first half is the complete lack of support for Robert. Yes, there are flaws in his game still, but Chicago’s woes are not his fault. Robert has a 138 OPS+, elite defensive metrics and leads AL outfielders in bWAR.
Among the finalists, AXE recommends sticking with Judge and Arozarena as starters, then taking your pick between Garcia and Alvarez. The latter is hurt at the moment, which might be enough to decide the matter.
Designated hitter
Top five by voting: 1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (2,646,307); 2. Brandon Belt, Toronto Blue Jays (697,794); 3. Robbie Grossman, Texas Rangers (417,391); 4. Harold Ramírez, Tampa Bay Rays (366,655); 5. Corey Julks, Houston Astros (260,923)
Top five by AXE: 1. Ohtani (155); 2. Justin Turner, Boston Red Sox (114); 3. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (113); 4. Ramirez (111); 5. Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics (110)
This is moot, as Ohtani has already clinched a spot. The AXE rating you see for him here is his overall AXE, not just for hitting. (Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Ohtani is also a pretty good pitcher.) He’s been the best player in baseball over the first half. As for the others, it can be muddled when it comes to figuring out a DH leaderboard. The top five in AXE you see listed were tops among those who were on the ballot as DHs.
National League
First base
Top five by voting: 1. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (2,254,741); 2. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (994,545); 3. Pete Alonso, New York Mets (819,392); 4. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals (451,714); 5. Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres (230,091)
Top five by AXE: 1. Freeman (136); 2. Goldschmidt (123); 3. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks (120); 4. LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants (120); 5. Alonso (118)
Freeman ran away with the Phase 1 voting. Now he goes up against his Atlanta replacement, Olson, in the finals, giving the results at this spot an extra layer of intrigue. It would be very interesting to get Atlanta-specific results. It’s an understatement to say Freeman was beloved in the Atlanta community. But Olson has proved to be a worthy successor in every way and he’s an Atlanta-area native to boot.
As for first-half performance, it’s not really close. Olson ranks sixth in AXE among NL first basemen, so he’s right behind Alonso. But his score is 109, so there’s a separation between the two. That does seem strange as it feels like every Braves highlight features Olson hitting a multi-run homer about 450 feet. But the metrics don’t lie.
The bottom line is Freeman has handily outperformed Olson. In a virtually equal number of plate appearances, he’s created 14 more runs (71 to 57) while using 16 fewer outs. The defensive metrics are about equal but Freeman, who has stolen 10 bases in 11 attempts, has added considerable value on the basepaths. He also has lapped Olson in win probability, 2.6 to 0.4.
One final note: Sorry, fans, but while Cronenworth is a good player, he’s had a bad season so far. Wade and Walker, who finished eighth and 10th in the voting respectively, deserved a lot more love.
Second base
Top five by voting: 1. Luis Arraez, Miami Marlins (1,464,802); 2. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves (1,345,772); 3. Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers (454,138); 4. Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals (453,310); 5. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (326,099)
Top five by AXE: 1. Marte (126); 2. Ha-seong Kim, San Diego Padres (125); 3. Arraez (124); 4. Thairo Estrada, San Francisco Giants (121); 5. Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs (118)
The voting results and the metrics don’t line up very well at this spot, except for a solid agreement on Arraez. Vargas, who has an 82 OPS+ and negative defensive runs saved, really has no business in the top five, so that’s one of the bigger overreaches by the voters.
The overreach by AXE is probably Kim, but it’s not a bad rating. He’s produced better than league average with the bat (107 OPS+) while stealing 13 bases and posting some of the top defensive metrics in the sport. That’s a combination of skills that tends to get overlooked, and so has it been for Kim.
Albies ranks sixth here in AXE at 117, so he’s only a tick behind Hoerner and, really, the entire top six is so tightly bunched that the combination of any two of them would have made perfectly fine finalists. The finals pairing — Arraez and Albies — is a wonderful contrast between the bat control-wizardry of Arraez and the little-man-big-swing game of the 5-foot-8 Albies.
The popularity of Arraez in Phase 1 may contain some important clues in what fans, circa 2023, appreciate. While his quest to hit .400 remains a longshot, for now it remains a centerpiece to the daily following of the game. There has been some renewed online debate about the relevance of batting average as a stat. And while we know these days that its evaluative utility is limited, the part of it that gets left out is the question of whether or not a lot of fans appreciate the presence of high-average hitters in the game.
Arraez’s support here suggests many still do.
Third base
Top five by voting: 1. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (1,327,255); 2. Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves (1,218,573); 3. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (802,759); 4. J.D. Davis, San Francisco Giants (623,059); 5. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (600,968)
Top five by AXE: 1. Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies (121); 2. Jeimer Candelario, Washington Nationals (121); 3. Davis (112); 4. Arenado (109); 5. (tie) Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates; Max Muncy (108)
Oy. Where to start?
Arenado has not quite been himself this season, though his numbers have been trending upward at the plate. His defensive and baserunning metrics haven’t been up to snuff and it’s not entirely a small-sample size oddity. At least in a number of games I’ve seen, Arenado’s throwing has been erratic and he’s made other uncharacteristic miscues. There have been a lot of baffling performances coming out of St. Louis this season and at times, Arenado’s has been one of them. He’s still been really good, it’s just that his standard is so high.
Meanwhile, Riley has a 106 OPS+ with negative defensive runs saved and has a 106 AXE. So there are your finalists, well-deserved in terms of career performance and stature but not so much in terms of 2023 output. Perhaps what’s bolstered their vote totals is the fact that the top two third basemen by AXE are surprises. Well, McMahon is well-established but not at an All-Star level. Meanwhile, Candelario has quietly been putting up one of the more surprising solid seasons of any player around.
The problem for both is that much of their value has been wrapped up in contextual performance few fans pay attention to. But McMahon and Candelario rank one-two among NL third baseman in win probability added.
In the finals, AXE likes Arenado a little better than Riley but the numbers are close, as were their Phase 1 vote totals. This one feels like a coin flip.
Shortstop
Top five by voting: 1. Orlando Arcia, Atlanta Braves (1,675,037); 2. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (669,597); 3. Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres (571,118); 4. Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds (528,613); 5. Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (464,852)
Top five by AXE: 1. Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (126); 2. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves (125); 3. Arcia (123); 4. Lindor (120); 5. Bogaerts (111)
Arcia’s Phase 1 vote total and the gap between that and every other NL shortstop is one of the more stunning outcomes of the balloting. Remember when, before the season, we were wondering if the Braves had a contention-worthy shortstop? The AXE totals between the top four are all 120-plus and are so close that any combination of them would have been legit finalists. So I can live with Arcia versus Lindor.
I’m not as pleased with the lack of respect for Perdomo and Swanson. We’ll begin with the latter: Swanson was one of the splashiest players who changed teams in the offseason and he’s been outstanding as a member of the Cubs’ terrific double-play duo along with Hoerner. He hasn’t hit for as much power as he did the last two years in Atlanta, but we’re just getting into the hot weather months in Chicago and Swanson could go on a power binge at any point. He just needs to get the ball in the air a little more frequently.
Perdomo finished eighth in the voting and that’s a shame. He’s been largely platooned, even though he’s a switch hitter, as Torey Lovullo has tended to go with Nick Ahmed against lefties. But the Diamondbacks have gone 33-19 when Perdomo starts and his .398 OBP has played well as a leadoff hitter. There are a lot of reasons Arizona has raced to the NL West lead and Perdomo is certainly one of them.
Catcher
Top five by voting: 1. Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves (1,930,694); 2. Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers (1,139,905); 3. J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies (498,914); 4. Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (466,082); 5. Elias Diaz, Colorado Rockies (388,058)
Top five by AXE: 1. (tie) Murphy, Smith (125); 3. Diaz (113); 4. (tie) Realmuto, William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers (110)
Nothing here to get worked up about. The fans nailed this one and deserve extra plaudits for recognizing the career season Diaz is having in Colorado. Give the Braves credit for emerging as the winner in the Murphy trade sweepstakes last winter. It was not obvious that they needed to be so aggressive, as not many people really looked at the William Contreras/Travis d’Arnaud combination as an obvious area needing an upgrade.
But no one can argue with that aggression now, especially as Murphy signed an extension and the Braves look very much set behind the plate for years to come. He’s never been better as an all-around catcher, with defensive metrics that in my system anoint him as the top defender in baseball at the moment. At the plate, his 144 OPS+ and .388 on-base percentage mark him as a star on that side of the ball as well.
And yet, Smith has been just as good. His OPS+ is 148 and his on-base percentage is .407. He’s created five more runs than Murphy in almost the exact same number of plate appearances while using seven fewer outs. I’ve got Murphy as the better defender but even that conclusion varies depending on where you look.
This is a true coin flip performance-wise, but if the Phase 1 voting means anything, it’s Murphy’s race to win.
Outfield
Top 15 by voting: 1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (3,082,600); 2. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (1,904,387); 3. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (1,053,815); 4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks (844,362); 5. Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves (802,008); 6. Juan Soto, San Diego Padres (790,860); 7. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (773,080); 8. Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies (671,701); 9. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (661,696); 10. Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs (467,084); 11. Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs (459,686); 12. James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers (445,952); 13. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (426,409); 14. Jason Heyward, Los Angeles Dodgers (419,336); 15. Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals (411,870)
Top 15 by AXE: 1. Acuna (143); 2. Carroll (140); 3. Tatis (134); 4. Betts (130); 5. Soto (129); 6. T.J. Friedl, Cincinnati Reds (123); 7. Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets (119); 8. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers (118); 9. Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals (117); 10. (tie) Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants; Gurriel; Castellanos (115); 13. (tie) Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs; Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates; Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies (114)
Acuna is in like Doug Flynn, so we’ve only got four NL outfield finalists vying for two spots. That foursome is Betts, Carroll, Gurriel and Harris.
First of all, Carroll had passed Acuna on the AXE leaderboard last week after closing in on him little by little with each passing performance, though Acuna regained the lead over the weekend. That means Carroll isn’t just a shoe-in as far as the NL Rookie of the Year race, but he’s headed toward legit MVP candidacy. It’ll be tough if he doesn’t separate himself from Acuna more than this, because Acuna is making the traditional stat line pop, with possible end-of-season totals like 40 homers/70 stolen bases within his reach.
So Carroll should be one of the two starters alongside Acuna. AXE likes Tatis for the other spot but he’s not a finalist. His disappointing vote total likely has something to do with his late start to the season and some residual backlash for the reason he wasn’t in the lineup from the outset. So we’re down to Betts, Gurriel and Harris, in which case Mookie has clearly separated himself from the other two.
Gurriel has indeed been outstanding and is another Arizona position player sizzling during a breakout season. Harris, on the other hand, seems to be riding the coattails from his remarkable 2022 rookie season. In 2023, he’s got an 88 OPS+.
Designated hitter
Top five by voting: 1. J.D. Martinez, Los Angeles Dodgers (1,153,927); 2. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (980,191); 3. Travis d’Arnaud, Atlanta Braves (877,609); 4. Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins (507,586); 5. Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs (330,848)
Top five by AXE: 1. Soler (118); 2. Joc Pederson, San Francisco Giants (110); 3. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates (109); 4. Morel (106); 5. Martinez (105)
Harper has an AXE of 104. Just the fact that he’s playing is a win in itself. But in terms of the finalists, there’s a clear separation between Harper and Martinez. Some of it is volume, as Harper missed the start of the season. But it’s not all that, as he still has more plate appearances than Morel or Pederson, both of whom crack the AXE top five. Harper just isn’t quite back to his normal standard. He’s slugging .399, more than 100 points below his career mark.
I would have liked Soler to come out better in the Phase 1 vote. He’s no more consistent than he’s ever been, but when Soler is good, he’s very good. And so it’s been for much of the first half. He’s hitting homers at almost the same rate as when he clubbed 48 for Kansas City in 2019, drawing walks and doing well situationally. And he’s doing it for the Marlins, one of baseball’s most pleasant surprises over the first half.
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