While we still don’t know all the participants in the 2022 World Cup, we do know all of the games — when they will be played, where they will be played, and who, theoretically, might be playing. From Nov. 21 through Dec. 18, 64 total matches will be played in Qatar. So, guess what? We’re going to predict every single one.
Sure, we’re seven months away from rosters being finalized. Players can get injured, players can play poorly, players can appear out of nowhere, managers can quit their jobs — the list of complicating factors is endless. Only a maniac would attempt to pick every game at the World Cup on April 5, but that’s why I’m here. I am your maniac.
Before we get started, though, there a couple of things are worth noting. To start, among the teams still with playoffs to contest, I just selected the countries with the best FIFA rating and chose them for this exercise. (Go Peru, Wales and Costa Rica. Sorry, New Zealand, Ukraine, Scotland, Australia and the UAE.) In addition to that: Unless otherwise noted, any stats I mention in the piece come from Stats Perform and are from a combination of World Cup qualifying and any continental tournament that has taken place within the past year: 2021 CONCACAF Nations League, the Copa America and Euros from last summer, and the Africa Cup of Nations from earlier this year.
Lastly, I’ve employed the help of the consultancy Twenty First Group, who have built a model that combines individual player ratings and team performance to create a rating for every international team. With international soccer, there aren’t enough games to truly judge a team based on its recent results and the rosters are always changing, so this method attempts to address those problems. I’ll reference their ratings throughout this journey; it’s just another tool to help guide us from start to finish.
All right, let’s get to it!
The group stage
Group A: Senegal vs. Netherlands (Nov. 21): We’ll kick this off with some ground rules, base rates, what have you. Over the past two World Cups, 80% of the matches were won by one team or another, with the remaining 20% ending in draws. And there have been an average of 2.6 goals scored per game.
When a team wins, they score 2.3 goals and concede 0.6. When it’s a draw, the scores, very nicely, add up to 1.0 goals for and 1.0 goals against. So, roughly, the average win at the World Cup is a 2-1 and the average draw is a 1-1.
Among teams that have appeared in the past two tournaments, France have averaged both the most goals scored (2.0) and conceded the fewest (0.8). I’ll let you figure out why they’re favorites to win it all once again. At the other end of the spectrum, among teams with appearances in both events, Iran have scored the fewest goals (0.5 per game) while Australia have allowed the most (2.3). If we limit it to teams who have made at least one appearance, then Panama have allowed the most goals (3.7), while Cameroon and Honduras (0.3) have scored the fewest.
While they missed out on Russia 2018, Netherlands have scored the most goals (2.1) and conceded the second fewest (0.6, behind Denmark’s 0.5) among teams to appear in at least one of the previous two tournaments. Their manager in 2014? Louis van Gaal. Their manager in 2018? One Louis van Gaal.
Befitting what is widely considered the worst group in the tournament, Netherlands are the eighth-best team according to the Twenty First Group model, while Senegal rank 16th. One stylistic indicator to keep an eye on: Senegal have moved the ball upfield faster (1.8 meters per second) than any team in the tournament. In contrast, LVG’s teams have a history of slow-moving, sideways possession. Should be a fun one, and it’s a nice matchup for Sadio Mane & Co. The winner of this likely wins the group.
Result: Senegal 1-1 Netherlands
Group B: England vs. Iran (Nov. 21): While Senegal are the fastest team, England are the slowest, moving the ball upfield at a crawl’s pace of 0.9 meters per second. And while Iran can’t score, they’ve always been tough to score against. This one, especially the first half, could be a slog for the Three Lions.
Result: England 2-0 Iran
Group A: Qatar vs. Ecuador (Nov. 21): There’s no other way to say it, really: The Qataris are the worst host nation in the history of the World Cup, and they’re only in the tournament because of the incredibly dubious process that led to their country being awarded the tournament.
They’re 51st in the FIFA rankings, and Twenty First Group’s model rates them as the worst offensive and defensive team in the tournament. They can play some nice possession soccer at times — see: their match against the USMNT at the 2021 Gold Cup — but it’s hard to see them not getting overpowered by bigger and stronger teams.
Ecuador are not good — they barely eked out a positive goal differential in qualifying — but they should cruise in this one.
Result: Qatar 0-2 Ecuador
Group B: United States vs. Wales (Nov. 21): The U.S. had a really hard time with teams that could effectively sit back and counter during qualifying, and with Gareth Bale leading the way, the Welsh have been one of the most effective sit-back-and-counter teams in international soccer over the past decade. Of course, Gareth Bale is 32 years old and just occasionally plays professional soccer at this point, so who the hell knows where he’ll be come late November.
The U.S. truly do have more talent than Wales, but their Day 1 opponents will present a tactical puzzle that Gregg Berhalter’s team hasn’t yet solved.
Result: USA 1-1 Wales
Group C: Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia (Nov. 22): The vibes around Argentina are as good as they’ve ever been right now, and the Saudis just match up terribly with them — and frankly, with most teams in the tournament. They like to possess the ball, so there should be plenty of space for Argentina’s dynamic attackers to run into as Lionel Messi continues to drop deeper and deeper as he gets older and pings pinpoint passes up and across the field.
Result: Argentina 3-0 Saudi Arabia
Group D: Denmark vs. Tunisia (Nov. 22): In international soccer, everyone knows you’ve got the Big Nine. (Actually don’t use this term; I just made it up, and people will look at you funny if you try to drop it in conversation.) There’s Brazil and Argentina from South America, along with the European septet of France, Spain, England, Germany, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands. But after that group, Denmark rates out as the best team in the tournament, according to Twenty First Group. They made the semis of the Euros, and it wasn’t a fluke.
The level of coaching at this tournament and at international soccer in general will vary widely, but Kasper Hjulmand showed an ability to build a really fun, interesting and flexible side last summer. The Danes are still lacking a truly standout attacker, but they’re one of the more cohesive and well-thought-out teams in the event.
Result: Denmark 2-0 Tunisia
Group C: Mexico vs. Poland (Nov. 22): Yes, Poland do have Robert Lewandowski, the red-hot best striker in the world. But also: Poland have had Robert Lewandowski for over a decade at this point and never really accomplished anything of note at the international level. I don’t see much of a difference in these two teams overall.
Result: Mexico 1-1 Poland
Group D: France vs. Peru (Nov. 22): No need to overcomplicate this. Peru scored 19 goals in 18 qualifying matches and conceded 22. Allowing more goals than you score: typically not the mark of a good soccer team! France will probably play this more conservatively than they should, but hey, it worked last time, didn’t it?
Result: France 1-0 Peru
Group F: Morocco vs. Croatia (Nov. 23): These are two teams that illustrate the dual beauty and curse of international soccer: some global superstars playing with some guys from the Croatian and Moroccan first divisions. It would be a massive boost for Morocco if Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech decides to unretire before the World Cup, but we’re counting him out for now. Croatia, meanwhile, are essentially just a worse, older version of the unlikely team that made the World Cup final last time around.
Among tournament sides, Croatia rank 11th according to Twenty First Group, while the Moroccans sit 17th. INCREDIBLY MINOR UPSET ALERT.
Result: Morocco 2-1 Croatia
Group E: Germany vs. Japan (Nov. 23): Don’t sleep on this game — metaphorically, that is. For some of you, this game will be played while you literally are sleeping, but DVR it if you have to because it could be a lot of fun.
In the sample of games mentioned in the intro, Germany had the second-best expected-goal differential per game, while Japan were third. The Germans have basically doubled down on the push-everyone-forward high-wire act that saw them get dumped out in the group stages in 2018; all of their matches are a must-watch.
Result: Germany 3-2 Japan
Group E: Spain vs. Costa Rica (Nov. 23): Spain have the best coach in the tournament. They mopped the floor with Italy in the semifinals of the Euros only to lose in a shootout, and the team is built around a core of young, dynamic, flexible winger/attacker/midfielder/whatever-types that seem only likely to improve over the next seven months.
Costa Rica, meanwhile, might be the oldest team at the tournament. I’m not buying their late surge in CONCACAF, either.
Result: Spain 2-0 Costa Rica
Group F: Belgium vs. Canada (Nov. 23): This is just an awful matchup for Belgium. They’re weak at the back and can’t really defend in space, but Roberto Martinez has the team playing in a way that requires his aging slew of center-backs to sometimes still do that. Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David are both one-man counterattacks … and they play on the same team.
The Belgians might overwhelm them with possession, but it’s really hard to imagine any pattern to this game that doesn’t involve David and Davies streaking up the field into wide-open space at least a couple of times.
Result: Belgium 1-2 Canada
Group G: Switzerland vs. Cameroon (Nov. 24): Will Xherdan Shaqiri finally take off all of his clothes during a World Cup match? Tune in on Thanksgiving morning as we begin our collective journey.
Result: Switzerland 1-0 Cameroon
Group H: Uruguay vs. South Korea (Nov. 24): Sorry, but I just can’t get excited about a team that (A) is managed by a coach who was fired by the worst club in MLS, (B) conceded as many goals as it scored in qualifying, and (C) still relies on a pair of 35-year-old strikers. This will be South Korea’s last World Cup with Son Heung-Min somewhere near his peak. I like that a little better.
Result: Uruguay 0-1 South Korea
Group H: Portugal vs. Ghana (Nov. 24): Remember all those Ghana teams the U.S. had trouble with? Good, now wipe that from your memory. The Black Stars limped into the tournament off a lucky Thomas Partey goal in a match that Nigeria dominated. This team didn’t get out of its group at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Result: Portugal 2-0 Ghana
Group G: Brazil vs. Serbia (Nov. 24): When they played four years ago, the match ended 2-0. When they play while you’re falling asleep on your couch from too much turkey …
Result: Brazil 2-0 Serbia
Group B: Wales vs. Iran (Nov. 25): It probably won’t happen, but this match could consist of 90 minutes of both teams staring at the ball while it sits in the middle of the center circle, daring the other side to take the initiative. With both sides at their best without the ball, this feels like a terrible matchup for everyone, especially those who decide to wake up early to watch it.
Result: Wales 0-0 Iran
Group A: Qatar vs. Senegal (Nov. 25): Senegal soaks up possession from Qatar, the hosts can’t break down the likes of PSG’s Idrissa Gueye and Napoli’s Kalidou Koulibaly, the ball turns over and all of a sudden, it’s Sadio Mane breaking into the penalty area — over and over and over again.
Result: Qatar 0-2 Senegal
Group A: Netherlands vs. Ecuador (Nov. 25): For all of Netherlands’ midfield and defensive talent, the attackers just don’t really fit together. It’s a bunch of wide attackers who all like to occupy the same spaces and not many guys who can stretch a defense. It can work when all the players are world-class — elite players can figure out the fit on the fly — but the standard of the Dutch attackers this cycle is a couple of ticks below the Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben generation.
This could be a tricky match for LVG’s side.
Result: Netherlands 2-1 Ecuador
Group B: England vs. United States (Nov. 25): The “It’s Called Soccer, Lads” derby!
Despite all of the exciting attacking talent on both sides, both teams are much better defensively than they are going forward. It’s a weird matchup, and that’s going beyond the anxieties and emotional complexes both nations have developed against, and in concert with, each other over the past 300 years. England should be able to dominate with the ball more than they typically do, while the USMNT have typically fared better without the ball despite wanting the ball more often. Am I talking myself into both teams swapping managers before the tournament starts?
There’s plenty of time to overthink this one, let’s just go with this for now: The more talented team wins.
Result: England 2-1 U.S.
Group D: Tunisia vs. Peru (Nov. 26): Based on the Twenty First Group ratings, this would be the worst game of the tournament: nos. 27 and 29.
Result: Tunisia 1-2 Peru
Group C: Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (Nov. 26): This feels like one of those “guy wins the Golden Boot in one game” type matches, doesn’t it? Would the over-under on Lewandowski goals be 1.5? Maybe even 2?
Result: Poland 4-1 Saudi Arabia
Group C: Argentina vs. Mexico (Nov. 26): The last time Tata Martino coached an international match involving the greatest soccer player of all time, Lionel Messi immediately retired after the game. Let’s all hope that’s not the case this time around! I’m skeptical that Martino’s familiarity with the Argentina setup will provide too much of an edge, but it certainly can’t hurt.
Result: Argentina 2-1 Mexico
Group D: France vs. Denmark (Nov. 26): The holders against the Euro semifinalists makes for a fun group stage rematch. They drew 0-0 when they played in the group stages in 2018. Denmark have definitely improved since then and, well, Kylian Mbappe has definitely improved since then, too.
Result: France 1-1 Denmark
Group E: Japan vs. Costa Rica (Nov. 27): Feels like a prime candidate for a goalless draw, but Twenty First Group rates Japan as roughly equivalent to the U.S. Despite the score lines over their matches, the U.S. were clearly a better team than Costa Rica over the course of qualifying.
Result: Japan 1-0 Costa Rica
Group F: Belgium vs. Morocco (Nov. 27): This is a much better matchup for Belgium than Canada, I think. But it’s worth remembering that this is a less talented, and much older, Belgium team than the one we saw at the last World Cup. Eden Hazard has essentially fallen off the face of the Earth, while Romelu Lukaku has five goals for Chelsea this season and is no longer one of Thomas Tuchel’s first-choice attackers.
Remember: A favorite goes out early in every tournament …
Result: Belgium 1-1 Morocco
Group F: Croatia vs. Canada (Nov. 27): Against Canada in Canada, the U.S. dominated possession, pressed well, and put together some really nice combinations, but it rarely ever led to a quality shot on goal. Croatia should be able to control this game in the same way, and with more midfield talent than the Americans can offer, they also should be able to turn that possession into some more dangerous chances.
If they can’t, they’ll just bop crosses into the box and shoot from range — two specialties of Ivan Perisic — opting for a more industrial Plan B the U.S. never resorted to.
Result: Croatia 2-1 Canada
Group E: Spain vs. Germany (Nov. 27): This is, theoretically, the Game of the Group Stages. But more often than not, the Game of the Group Stages ends in disappointment because both sides have more to lose than to gain by going all-out for the win. Hell, and even when they do, like with Spain and Portugal in 2018, the match can still end even.
Result: Spain 1-1 Germany
Group G: Cameroon vs. Serbia (Nov. 28): This just isn’t a good group for Cameroon. Brazil might be the best team in the tournament, while Serbia and Switzerland and Serbia both rank within the top 15 of the Twenty First Group rankings. As such, TFG gives the Indomitable Lions just a 10% chance of reaching the knockout rounds. Only Qatar (6%) have a smaller chance of advancing.
Result: Cameroon 1-2 Serbia
Group H: South Korea vs. Ghana (Nov. 28): Only Saudi Arabia and Qatar have worse ratings in the TFG model than Ghana. This isn’t a vintage South Korea side by any means, but the draw fell pretty nicely for them.
Result: South Korea 1-0 Ghana
Group G: Brazil vs. Switzerland (Nov. 28): They tied 1-1 in the group stages last time around, but Brazil totally dominated the shot count 21-6. There’s no good reason to suggest any different this time around, and there’s no good reason to expect the bounces to fall Switzerland’s way a second time.
Result: Brazil 2-1 Switzerland
Group H: Portugal vs. Uruguay (Nov. 28): While Portugal do have an even older striker gobbling up an even greater share of the minutes than Uruguay do, they also have a boatload of talented attackers rising up behind them. They also just have more talent pretty much everywhere else on the field, too.
Uruguay knocked Portugal out in the round of 16, but these two teams are in very different places four years later — even if the headline names remain the same.
Result: Portugal 2-1 Uruguay
Group A: Netherlands vs. Qatar (Nov. 29): One of those classic World Cup matchups between one team that’s already eliminated and another team that’s trying to score as many goals as possible in order to win the potential goal-differential tiebreaker atop the group.
Result: Netherlands 4-1 Qatar
Group A: Ecuador vs. Senegal (Nov. 29): While the incentives tend to be uniform over the first two matches of the group stages — win as many points as you can — by the third game, you’re just trying to do whatever you think maximizes your chances of qualifying. While a win would put Ecuador through, a draw or a win would be good enough for Senegal.
It was the same exact situation when Senegal played Colombia in the final group stage game in 2018 — and lost. Four years later, they’ve learned their lesson.
Result: Ecuador 1-1 Senegal
Group B: Wales vs. England (Nov. 29): Based on the prior outcomes, England will have already clinched first place in the group through the first two matches. That, theoretically, bodes incredibly well for Wales … until you remember that England’s second-choice team is likely to be nearly as good as its first. Southgate rotated his squad during the group stages of the Euros without much issue, and the same should be true this time around.
Result: Wales 1-1 England
Group B: Iran vs. United States (Nov. 29): Another team that doesn’t want the ball. Hopefully you’re sensing a theme here … and hopefully Gregg Berhalter is, too. While, paradoxically, it seemed like the U.S. might match up better against better competition come the World Cup — less of the ball, but more transition opportunities, and more space in the attacking third — they’ve drawn a collection of teams who also function better without it. Figuring out how to break these teams down — hint-hint, set pieces! — should be the goal of the next seven months.
After a tense first half, though, the U.S. breaks through — and then breaks through again as Iran now have to push forward to stay alive.
Result: Iran 0-2 U.S.
Group D: Tunisia vs. France (Nov. 30): Finally, a decisive win for the defending champs.
Result: Tunisia 0-3 France
Group D: Peru vs. Denmark (Nov. 30): Peru would have to win this in order to advance and so they get a goal, but leave themselves open at the back over the full 90 minutes. Denmark and France both finish the group with seven points and the same goal differential, but the Danes top the standings thanks to the goals-scored tiebreaker.
Result: Peru 1-3 Denmark
Group C: Poland vs. Argentina (Nov. 30): A chance for Lewandowski to avenge Messi for stealing his Ballon d’Or? Or not. When both teams benefit from a draw, I expect both teams to — ultimately — benefit from a draw.
Result: Poland 1-1 Argentina
Group C: Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico (Nov. 30): Feels like the right way for Tata Martino’s reign as Mexico manager to come to an end, right? A decisive win gets them to four points, but thanks to a schedule quirk, Argentina doesn’t have as much to play for against Poland, so Poland gets an extra point from the final match to send El Tri packing.
Result: Saudi Arabia 1-3 Mexico
Group F: Croatia vs. Belgium (Dec. 1): The Belgium attackers finally click, as Croatia controls possession but leave the Red Devils too much space to play into on the counter. Will it be enough?
Result: Croatia 1-2 Belgium
Group F: Canada vs. Morocco (Dec. 1): What did I say earlier? When a draw suits both parties, don’t be surprised when both parties end in a draw. Morocco tops the group, and Canada and Belgium finish tied on points, on goal differential, and on goals scored. The next tiebreaker? Head-to-head, and so the second- and third-place finishers from 2018 both get dumped out before the round of 16.
Result: Canada 1-1 Morocco
Group E: Japan vs. Spain (Dec. 1): The way to frustrate Spain is to limit space in your defensive third and force them to circulate the ball from side to side. The issue with that in this particular situation? Japan need to win, not just grind out a draw. The incentives are against them in this one.
Result: Japan 0-2 Spain
Group E: Costa Rica vs. Germany (Dec. 1): The Costa Rica of two World Cups ago would have given Germany some problems. The problem with this year’s Costa Rica is that they have many of the same players as the Costa Rica of two World Cups ago.
Result: Costa Rica 1-3 Germany
Group H: South Korea vs. Portugal (Dec. 2): Coming into the tournament, Portugal’s expectation is to win their group. Korea’s hope is to just advance. Both teams will have already clinched qualification by now. You can sleep in on this day.
Result: South Korea 0-0 Portugal
Group H: Ghana vs. Uruguay (Dec. 2): Presuming that I predicted every match exactly perfectly, this would be the only meaningless game of the Final Matchday. That’s a shame given that it’s the first time these two teams will play since Luis Suarez punched a ball off the goal line to prevent a goal against Ghana in the quarterfinals of the 2010 World Cup. He was sent off, and Uruguay won on penalties.
The thought of Luis Suarez playing in a meaningless World Cup game makes no sense to me.
Result: Ghana 2-2 Uruguay
Group G: Cameroon vs. Brazil (Dec. 2): Just a brutal draw for Cameroon. They were also in Brazil’s group — in Brazil — in 2014. Sorry, guys!
Result: Cameroon 1-2 Brazil
Group G: Serbia vs. Switzerland (Dec. 2): Serbia vs. Switzerland was the best game of the group stages in 2018, and it’s setting up for that to be the case again in 2022. Switzerland would just need a draw, Serbia would need a win. Last time, Shaqiri got naked from the waist up after his 90th-minute winner and he and Granit Xhaka were charged by FIFA for politically charged celebrations.
Switzerland has the slightly better — and more balanced — team, but this would be an electric match.
Result: Serbia 1-1 Switzerland
OK, here we go: the round of 16
Netherlands vs. United States (Dec. 3): Ah yes, finally a matchup that might suit the USMNT’s strength. As we already went over, the Dutch are the worst best team from the group stages, so this part of the draw worked out well for Berhalter’s team. Only Germany and Spain had a higher percentage of the final-third possession in their matches than the Dutch did, and they’ll likely look to do the same against the Americans. However, they also don’t have the devastating attacking talent of other top teams to turn that possession into goals.
Is it hard to imagine a team without a striker scoring against a team with Virgil Van Dijk? Sure, but hey — Christian Pulisic always plays well against Liverpool, doesn’t he?
Result: Netherlands 1-2 USA
Argentina vs. France (Dec. 3): Argentina’s reward for winning their group? A game against France, who, in 2018, were rewarded for winning their group with a game against Argentina. The Albiceleste are way better equipped to handle France this time around, but it’s just a brutal draw for them.
So much of winning the World Cup comes down to good fortune, and unfortunately, Lionel Messi knows that as well as anyone.
Result: Argentina 1-2 France (after extra time)
Denmark vs. Poland (Dec. 4): Poland have the best player; Denmark have the better team. Might seem like an unlikely outcome for either side to reach the quarterfinals, but based on Twenty First Group’s projections, there’s about a 42% chance that at least one of them does.
Result: Denmark 1-0 Poland
England vs. Senegal (Dec. 4): This would be a fun one, huh? A colossal battle between Sadio Mane and The Narrative That Trent Alexander-Arnold Can’t Defend. This could be a tricky one for England, but I just don’t think they’ll concede the same kind of space Senegal are likely to see during the group stages.
Result: England 2-0 Senegal
Spain vs. Canada (Dec. 5): Now this could be a really tricky matchup for Luis Enrique’s team. Canada are the exact kind of team that has historically given Spain trouble, and there’s just no one in their theoretical squad who can handle Alphonso Davies. But Spain are just going to have so much of the ball in this one, and I don’t know if you’ve seen what Pedri’s been up to recently, but I wouldn’t want to let him spend 90 minutes camped out on the top of my penalty box.
Result: Spain 1-0 Canada
Brazil vs. South Korea (Dec. 5): Brazil are the No. 1 team in Twenty First Group’s model, while Korea are rated 18th. Korea has Son Heung-min, and Brazil have Neymar, Thiago Silva, Alisson, Fabinho, Casemiro, Ederson, Marquinhos, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino, Vinicius Junior, FRED …
Result: Brazil 2-0 South Korea
Morocco vs. Germany (Dec. 6): While Argentina finish first in their group and land France, Germany finish second in theirs and luck out with a matchup against Morocco. While Morocco handled Belgium in our tournament, the Germans are a much better version of the same team: Push the attack dials up to 100 and deal with the fallout.
Result: Morocco 1-3 Germany
Portugal vs. Switzerland (Dec. 6): The Swiss are the kind of organized, know-who-we-are team that Portugal has struggled with over the years. I think the same thing probably happens here, much like with France at the Euros. Each team grabs a goal, it goes to penalties and then, well, it’s pretty much a coin-flip from there.
Result: Portugal 1-1 Switzerland, Portugal advances on penalties
Quarterfinals
Spain vs. Brazil (Dec. 9): Wow. These teams were circling each other during the late aughts and early 2010s, with Spain dominating Europe, Brazil doing the same in South America, but neither team ever meeting on the world’s biggest stage. These seriously might just be the two best teams in the tournament.
Tite has turned Brazil into the best defensive team in the world, and that’s been true for the better part of a decade, while Luis Enrique has Spain playing like an elite club team: pressing high and dominating games with complex positional rotations in possession. This would be a title fight.
Result: Spain 1-2 Brazil (after extra time)
United States vs. France (Dec. 9): Yep, that’s going to do it for the Americans. Could they theoretically pull off the upset? Yes, sure, but just because North Macedonia beats Italy doesn’t mean you should predict that it’ll happen. It’s close to impossible for me to image the U.S. scoring against France, and at the other end, who’s going to slow down Kylian Mbappe, Paul Pogba, Karim Benzema, Ousmane Dembele, Kingsley Coman, Christopher Nkunku and on and on and on?
Result: U.S. 0-2 France
Germany vs. Portugal (Dec. 10): We saw Germany absolutely annihilate Portugal at the Euros last summer, and they’ve been flying since Hansi Flick left Bayern Munich to take over from Jogi Low. Flick manages in a way that attempts to raise his team’s ceiling, while Portugal’s Fernando Santos opts to pull up his team’s floor.
The latter gets you out of the group stages, the former gets you to the World Cup semifinals.
Germany 2-1 Portugal
England vs. Denmark (Dec. 10): It’s a day of Euro 2020 rematches! Denmark really were worthy semifinalists this past summer, dominating the balance of chances in every match they played … until England showed up.
Although it went to extra time, England outshot the Danes 20-6, putting nine on target to their opponent’s three. The game was in England, of course, but England might have even more talent in Qatar than they had at the Euros. They overwhelmed Denmark last time, and the bounces didn’t quite go their way until extra time. In the rematch, they get the win without as much anguish.
Result: England 2-0 Denmark
Semifinals
France vs. Brazil (Dec. 13): Whenever these two teams play, it feels like you’re watching history unfold in real time. You know the things you’re seeing are things people will be talking about in 50 years, and you know it while they’re happening: Roberto Carlos violating every law of physics with a free kick, Zinedine Zidane looking like he escaped one of the four mendicant orders to come dominate the 1998 World Cup final, Zidane turning back the clock to knock Brazil out in 2006 round of 16.
This one shouldn’t be any different. It’ll be decided by a single moment or two that everyone in both countries will remember forever. Brazil seems due for a few of those to go their way.
Result: France 1-2 Brazil
England vs. Germany (Dec. 14): What a pair of semifinals this would be, my god.
This, too, would be a rematch for England from the knockout round of the Euros. They beat the Germans 2-0 in what was ultimately a pretty even match decided by England finishing their two big chances and Germany biffing both of theirs. As England manager, Gareth Southgate has tended toward the floor-raising approach — frequently playing three center backs and opting for a pair of conservative midfielders.
England have so much talent that it got them to the finals of the Euros, but it’s also a big reason they lost control of the game after taking the lead against Italy. What will Southgate do in this tournament? Will he ditch the back three and find space for another one of England’s star attackers? Will he finally figure out a way to integrate Trent Alexander-Arnold, who’s simply been the best playmaker on the planet this season? If he answers those questions in the affirmative, the bracket could set up really nicely for England to make a run to their first final since 1966.
Result: England 2-2 Germany, England win on penalties
The third-place game
France vs. Germany (Dec. 17): Out of principle, I am not going to analyze an imaginary soccer game that shouldn’t even exist in the first place. BAN THE THIRD-PLACE GAME. THE PLAYERS DON’T CARE. THE FANS DON’T CARE. THIS TOURNAMENT IS HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE OF A DOMESTIC SOCCER SEASON. WE DON’T NEED THIS, FIFA. REFUND YOUR SPONSORS.
The World Cup final
Brazil vs. England (Dec. 18): The two losers from last summer’s continental championships meet in the final of the World Cup. They’re probably the two best defensive teams in the world, and like most finals, this one would probably be decided by a single moment of brilliance or a mistake, or perhaps even both.
There’s also a larger narrative at play in this one: Led by the dominance of the Premier League, the European club game has become the global epicenter of the world’s most popular sport. The best players and coaches and trainers and executives all tend to work in Europe — and more specifically, England. While there was supposed to be a global leveling in the international game, it seems like it’s actually going in the other direction, with European sides becoming ever more dominant thanks to their proximity to the highest echelon of the sport. Among the past 12 top-three finishers at the World Cup, just one (Argentina, in 2014) comes from outside of Europe.
A win for Brazil would be a welcome, if temporary, reversal of where the game is going. Of course, if they do win, they’ll be doing it with a roster composed almost completely of players who all work in the same place: Western Europe.
Result: Brazil 1-0 England
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