While I realize people will yell at me about this list being wrong regardless of how I explain my process, let me lay out the criteria for my latest postseason player ranking.
This isn’t just a descending ranking of WAR because that’s useless, and there’s still a good bit of noise even with a full season of data for a pretty advanced statistic. I’m ranking the players on both teams based on what order I’d take them in this series considering what I think their true skill level is right now. Obviously 2021 performance is a huge part of that, but being white-hot over the last few weeks is better than being ice-cold.
Yes, I know the playoffs as a sample size aren’t statistically significant and shouldn’t change my concept of true skill level, but I’ll split the difference on trying to guess exactly how good Eddie Rosario is right now: He isn’t Babe Ruth and also isn’t who Eddie Rosario was when the season started. It’s inexact and subjective but I promise you’ll learn something, too, so there’s another reason to yell at me.
In the interest of full disclosure, I should note that I worked for the Braves from 2015 to 2017, so I have some firsthand experience with a number of players on the team, either in acquiring (Anderson, Swanson, Jackson) and/or developing (Riley, Albies, Fried, Minter, Contreras, Webb, Camargo) them. I can also assure you that I’m not a Braves fan even if I’m rooting for some of the players specifically. I also am rooting for some of the Astros players. I’ve long since lost my team-specific fandom after working in the industry for years.
1. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros
It’s just a coincidence that the best players on both teams are franchise cornerstones coming off of great regular seasons, are in the midst of great postseasons and will be pursued heavily in free agency this winter. A walk year is a great motivator but Correa seems motivated by more in the wake of the Astros sign-stealing scandal and his own injuries and inconsistency after a white-hot start to his career. Correa is having a career year in the middle of his prime at just the right time. He’ll make well into the nine figures this winter as the most coveted free agent on the market, but he’s also the best player in this series.
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
Freeman is sixth in baseball in WAR since 2013, pumping out four-to-six-win seasons like clockwork. First basemen aren’t supposed to age this way and not many players get to make the playoffs early in their careers, stay through the full teardown and rebuild, and make it out the other side, all with the same club and while being just as good at the end of the process as they were at the beginning. Freeman is the heart and soul of the team, a pillar of the community, and his eight-year deal expires at the end of the season. It seems too good to be true that, on the heels of a blazing-hot postseason performance, it could end in a long-coveted title for Freeman and the Braves, but the odds say it’s about a coin flip at this point.
3. Kyle Tucker, RF, Astros
I was living in Tampa covering the draft closely when Tucker popped up as a sophomore at Plant High School (Wade Boggs, Mychal Givens, Pete Alonso, Kyle’s brother Preston). He and (then-senior) Alonso and current Cardinals righty Jake Woodford were all teammates, and the local scouts were salivating over Tucker — clearly the best of the bunch, with a swing that had scouts throwing out mechanical comps that were only Hall of Famers. The Astros took him with the fifth-overall pick in 2015 and this year, Tucker had the massive breakout that scouts have been expecting since 2013. He’s been even better in the playoffs than he was in the regular season, so this could well be the time he becomes a household name.
4. Charlie Morton, SP, Braves
Morton will be on extended rest for his Game 1 start and he could also start Game 4 and Game 7 on three days rest each, if necessary. Morton has the fifth-most WAR among pitchers over the last three seasons and has made 15 career playoff starts with slightly better numbers than his career averages. As a former Astro that’s 37 years old and just got a $20 million deal for 2022, I could totally see Morton rising to the occasion and being the story of this series.
5. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros
Alvarez is still limited in overall value by his DH-ness, but he’s done nothing but rake his whole MLB career — 53% better than league average as a hitter, tied for third in baseball in that span behind Mike Trout and Juan Soto. His current 10-game postseason hot streak (152% better) is getting absurd, but other candidates getting the slight edge all offer real defensive value and All-Star level bats.
6. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
Altuve narrowly had the second-most regular-season WAR of anyone in this series, but if you wanted a descending sort of regular-season WAR, you wouldn’t be reading this. The other four hitters ahead of Altuve are blistering hot at the moment and were within spitting distance over the regular season, while Morton has a real shot to make three appearances and win the series MVP.
7. Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
Riley had one of the more notable breakout seasons in baseball this year, taking all the positive elements of his previous 131 previous MLB games and putting them together to the tune of 33 homers and 4.2 WAR.
8. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves
Not only is Albies’ electric style of play fun to watch, he’s still just 24 years old and has posted 14.8 career WAR. He still has some holes — he’s streaky, his swing can get too big at times, he’s better as a right-handed hitter — but I prefer to take a step back and simply appreciate his helmet-flying-off-at-full-speed-style joy.
9. Max Fried, SP, Braves
Fried has now posted about 400 regular-season innings’ worth of mid-3’s-ERA-quality starts, along with seven strong playoff starts under his belt. We aren’t talking peak Pedro Martinez or anything, but that’s one of the better lefty starters in the game; only Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-jin Ryu have more WAR among lefties over the last three seasons.
10. Eddie Rosario, LF, Braves
Rosario is the trickiest player to rank for this article because he’s pretty obviously established himself for years as a roughly Joc Pederson-level talent — see below for where normal Rosario would rank. He’s ranked up here because he (along with Yordan Alvarez) is on such a historic heater at the plate, that I have to assume it will continue for the next seven games since it’s already happened for ten more games than I expected. For what it’s worth, Rosario’s whole time with the Braves (he was a deadline addition) has been the hottest stretch of his career, but the playoffs have birthed Nuclear Eddie.
11. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman finished second in MVP voting in 2019 with an 8.4 WAR season, but has put up only 2.9 WAR since then, with most of that difference in .100 to .150 points of isolated power that have gone missing. His launch angle, plate discipline, and quality of contact are all a little bit worse — there isn’t one clear thing going on here — but even the current version of Bregman is a three-win player over a full season.
12. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves
Swanson hasn’t been up to much at the plate this postseason, but 2021 was a nice follow-up on his breakout 2020 campaign, establishing him as an above-average everyday player.
13. Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros
Pressly is the best reliever in the series, one of many late-blooming arms, and had his breakthrough season in 2018 at age 29. He’s improbably kept up that 2-something ERA pace for four full seasons; the main difference at this point is declining fastball usage (he still sits at 94-97 mph) and increased slider usage.
14. Ian Anderson, SP, Braves
Anderson now has thrown just under 200 MLB innings across the regular and postseasons with a low-3’s ERA and a couple of big playoff performances. There seems to be some intangible qualities of note here (possibly something the Braves foresaw when they made him the third-overall pick in 2016), given the playoff performances and how he has outpaced his peripherals in his MLB career thus far.
15. Framber Valdez, SP, Astros
Valdez has established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter who has already made six playoff starts with quality performances. He and Luis Garcia will need to at least match Morton and Fried atop the Braves rotation because the Astros’ rotation thins out after the top two.
16. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Astros
Gurriel’s offensive performance has been a roller coaster the last three years, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been about the same hitter the whole time; not as good as his surface stats this year but way better than his terrible 2020.
17. Luis Garcia, SP, Astros
The 24-year-old rookie got his feet wet in the big leagues last season, then was a solid mid-rotation pitcher for 28 starts this year. He was mediocre in his first two playoff starts this year, but he dominated the Red Sox in his last start (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 7 K).
18. Michael Brantley, LF, Astros
Brantley hasn’t shown much in the way of secondary skills this postseason, but it’s still a small sample and he’s one of the most consistent offensive performers in the league over the past four seasons.
19. Joc Pederson, RF, Braves
Pederson was acquired by the Braves from the Cubs at the deadline and has been basically the same player for years: fringy corner defender, occasionally wild hacks, three true outcomes-heavy, always in the playoffs and better there than in the regular season. I think right about here on the list, give or take a couple spots, is where we cross from really good players into solid players.
20. Adam Duvall, CF, Braves
Duvall had to settle for a one-year, $5 million deal with Miami last winter, then was one of four outfield reinforcements the Braves brought in at the deadline. He hit 38 homers this year and played sneaky good defense.
21. Tyler Matzek, RP, Braves
The three bullpen lefties for the Braves are tough to separate, but I’m leaning to Matzek after his fantastic outing in the series clincher on Saturday. He’s a journeyman’s journeyman who is now delivering on his first-round pedigree with upper-90s heat and a power breaking ball at the back of the Braves bullpen.
22. A.J. Minter, RP, Braves
Minter is regularly into the upper-90s from the left side, with a power 88-91 mph slider coming in from a notably low approach angle because ofhis height and arm slot.
23. Will Smith, RP, Braves
Smith is a bit different from Matzek and Minter, sitting at 92-94 mph with less-powerful breaking balls that come in around 80 mph, but he’s wily enough to get just as many strikeouts as the younger fireballers.
24. Travis d’Arnaud, C, Braves
d’Arnaud was set to become a free agent after this season, but the Braves pre-empted the market and re-signed him in August to an identical two-year, $16 million deal. He’s always been slightly injury-prone and had a bit of a down offensive year, but is still one of the top 15-20 catchers in the league.
25. Chas McCormick, CF, Astros
McCormick went from unknown to a real prospect in 2019, then reached the big leagues in 2021 and performed so well he went from being perceived as a fourth-outfielder type to the starting center fielder for a World Series club.
26. Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros
The Astros’ rotation isn’t as good as the Braves’, and this is the point where that could become a problem for them. The Braves have Morton-Fried-Anderson then probably a bullpen game, while the Astros have questions beyond an already-inferior top two of Garcia and Valdez. Urquidy had a solid regular season but was shelled in his American League Championship Series start.
27. Aledmys Diaz, UT, Astros
Diaz is one of the better utility infielders in baseball, with roughly league-average offensive performance his whole career, but he’s just okay at shortstop defensively, fitting better at second or third base.
28. Zack Greinke, SP, Astros
After a Hall of Fame-level career, Greinke has finally shown some real regression to a low-to-mid-4’s-ERA type, in his 18th big-league season and the last year of his six-year, $206.5 million deal. He’s still good enough to run out there as a starter with a quick-ish hook or as the long reliever if another starter falters.
29. Kendall Graveman, RP, Astros
Graveman was a revelation in the Mariners’ pen this year, eventually becoming the Astros’ deadline upgrade for their stretch run. He had a velocity spike to now sit at 95-98 mph, throwing his fastball a career-high 72% of the time and reducing his secondary mix to feature a slider.
30. Jason Castro, C, Astros
Castro has been hot with the bat this year in limited duty because of injuries that have cut back on how much he can catch, while Yordan Alvarez has been using the DH slot. He has a dangerous bat, but if he’s the only other catcher on the roster, it’s tough to use him in a pinch-hitting role.
31. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Astros
Odorizzi has been pretty ordinary since a breakout 2019 season with the Twins. Right now, he’s a source of back-end-quality bulk innings, something worth much less in the playoffs than the regular season.
32. Jesse Chavez, SP, Astros
Chavez has quietly taken a step forward at age 38 with career highs (or close to it) in many rate-based categories. The main adjustment is shifting over the last few years from a four-seamer to a sinker and leaning much more heavily on his cutter.
33. Jorge Soler, RF, Braves
He’s regressed defensively to almost DH-only and he’s been unlucky per expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) for three straight seasons, but he still hit 27 bombs with a solid contact rate this year.
34. Chris Martin, RP, Braves
The journeyman righty had a breakout in 2019, leading to a $14 million deal with the Braves. He works effectively in the mid-90’s with a four-pitch mix, but he’s 35 years old so the clock is ticking.
35. Cristian Javier, RP, Astros
The platonic ideal of a long reliever/spot starter. Works 92-95 mph with a four-pitch, fly-ball-oriented mix, but can reduce to four-seam/slider in shorter, righty-hitter-heavy stints.
36. Brooks Raley, RP, Astros
A journeyman righty who came back in 2020 after five years in Korea, leveling up from generic soft-tossing long reliever to a setup man and the Astros’ best lefty in the pen.
37. Ehire Adrianza, 3B, Braves
The Braves signed Adrianza to a minor league deal after a down 2020 in his walk year from the Twins, but he bounced back nicely this year to be their primary infield backup.
38. Guillermo Heredia, CF, Braves
The platonic ideal of a fourth outfielder: above-average glove in the corners, fringy defense in center, and a below-average but not embarrassing bat.
39. Jake Meyers, CF, Astros
A middling prospect who took a big step forward this year, making his MLB debut and playing well in the TV league. He has been limited recently by a shoulder injury.
40. Martin Maldonado, C, Astros
The veteran backup is a defensive standout but one of the weaker bats on either roster.
41. Luke Jackson, RP, Braves
Jackson is a middle reliever who sits at 95-97 mph but throws his slider 52% of the time.
42. Drew Smyly, SP/RP, Braves
Braves gave Smyly an $11 million deal hoping his loud 26.1 IP 2020 campaign was a sign of things to come, but he’s reverted back to the back-end starter/long reliever of previous years.
43. Jose Siri, CF, Astros
The former top-100 prospect has truly bonkers raw tools, but inconsistency in their application caused him to stall out in the Reds’ upper minors, bouncing around until the Astros scooped him up with a minor league deal last winter. He’s only played 21 MLB games, all this year, but could be an impactful pinch hitter/defensive replacement/pinch runner.
44. Ryne Stanek, RP, Astros
A power righty and former first-rounder who sits at 96-99 mph and racks up strikeouts, but his command still comes and goes.
45. Blake Taylor, RP, Astros
A power lefty who sits at 92-94 mph and throws only the heater and a slider en route to handily outpitching his mediocre peripherals via weak contact.
46. William Contreras, C, Braves
The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, William is a former top-100 prospect that looks like he’ll land somewhere in the quality backup-to-low-end-starter region, but has only played in 56 big league games.
47. Orlando Arcia, UT, Braves
A perfectly fine veteran utility infielder, but 2021 was a career-worst offensive campaign, so he’s near the end of the Braves’ pinch-hitting depth chart.
48. Johan Camargo, 3B, Braves
Camargo posted a 3.2 WAR in a breakout season in 2018 but hasn’t been the same since, only showing glimpses in Triple-A or limited MLB stints.
49. Phil Maton, RP, Astros
A solid journeyman middle-relief type that works in the low 90s and relies on a high-70s curveball.
50. Yimi Garcia, RP, Astros
His velocity has ticked up to a career high, averaging 96.1 mph, but he’s just a middle-relief option.
51. Jacob Webb, RP, Braves
A solid, but ultimately pretty generic middle reliever that sits 93-95 mph and relies on a good changeup.
52. Dylan Lee, RP, Braves
A lefty who was signed to a minor league deal in April after the Marlins released him out of spring training, later making his big-league debut this year at age 27. Even in his breakout season, he’s somewhat superfluous for Atlanta with three other lefties leading their bullpen.
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