NBA Offseason Guide 2022: How the Phoenix Suns should approach the offseason.
The Phoenix Suns‘ revenge tour proclaimed by Devin Booker has officially been postponed.
The NBA’s best team during the regular season is now heading home, eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals.
Dreams of a championship now shift to an offseason where the focus is on restricted free-agent center Deandre Ayton.
State of the team
Roster status: Championship level but set to become expensive
Suns owner Robert Sarver knows keeping this roster intact will come at a cost.
“That’s gonna come with the territory here,” Sarver told the “Burns & Gambo” show last July about paying the luxury tax. “I don’t know if that’s next season [2021-22] or the one after that [2022-23], but we know it’s coming. We see ourselves as a taxpayer, and that’s just part of what it’s gonna take to bring home a championship.”
The Suns did not pay a tax this season because Chris Paul declined his $44.1 million player option and signed a new contract that started at $30.8 million. Paul’s financial sacrifice allowed the Suns to sign reserves Cameron Payne and JaVale McGee and eventually trade for Aaron Holiday.
The Sarver comments should still resonate despite the Suns’ loss to the Mavericks in the second round. Phoenix is still a championship contender entering next season, but at a significant cost; the Suns currently have $128.8 million in salary, $20.3 million below the tax threshold before restricted free agent Deandre Ayton is addressed.
Factor in a possible max salary for Ayton, and Phoenix will pay the luxury tax for the first time since 2009-10. His contract will certainly factor into how much Phoenix is willing to spend in free agency on its five open roster spots.
The Suns will have the $6.4 million tax midlevel exception and the ability to sign McGee to a contract starting at $7.2 million.
The Suns project to pay a $77 million tax penalty if both of the above roster resources are used and the remaining three spots are used with the veterans minimum exception.
Deandre Ayton
One of two things will happen this offseason with Ayton and the Suns.
Either the former No. 1 pick will join an exclusive club of centers (Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo) who are currently on a max contract, or the two sides’ failure to reach an agreement on an extension last October will continue.
Ayton didn’t allow any emotions stemming from Phoenix’s lack of a five-year, $177 million rookie extension offer last offseason to linger during the year.
“It didn’t work out and I got it out of my mind right away,” Ayton told Andscape’s Marc J. Spears in December. “What I can do to make it rub in everyone’s faces is to bust my ass, work hard and win games. At the end of the day, it’s all about winning. If you want to get something and earn something in this league, you have to be a winner. Do something that leads to winning. Me putting my head down and working is just closing out all of that noise. I’m not really worried about all of that.”
Ayton is coming off a regular season in which he averaged 17.2 points and 10.2 rebounds, shot a career-high 63.4% from the field and expanded his offensive game.
According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Ayton shot 44% on field goal attempts outside the paint, the best in his career. On all jump shots, he shot 47.2% from the field on 125 attempts during the regular season. That ranked in the top 10 among all players with at least 100 jumpers this season.
He followed up a 15.8-point, 11.8-rebound playoff performance a year ago with averages of 19.3 points and 9.3 rebounds this year. He is the only player to average 15 points, 10 rebounds and shoot 65% in NBA postseason history. Ayton also joined James Worthy and Kevin McHale as the only players to have five or more career playoff games with 20 points and 80% shooting, per ESPN Stats & Information research.
The offseason now presents the question if, after another strong season, Phoenix now views Ayton as a $177 million player or perhaps $136.6 million with one less year. If it does, the top free-agent center will be in a Suns uniform for the foreseeable future.
But what happens if Phoenix uses the threat of restricted free agency and a limited market of teams with available cap space as leverage? Would the Suns tell Ayton to go out and get an offer sheet from another team, with the belief it would get matched?
ESPN is projecting four teams — the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs — to each have more than $30.5 million in available cap space. A fifth, the Portland Trail Blazers, would need to waive starter Josh Hart to create a max slot.
Each of the four teams (and possibly Portland) can offer a four-year, $131.1 million contract.
Considering Phoenix is now getting a discount of $46 million (but with one less year), the likelihood is that the offer is matched. In total, 17 players have signed an offer sheet, with seven going unmatched. The latest was in 2020 with Bogdan Bogdanovic and the Sacramento Kings.
The risk for the Suns is a contract laden with an advance payment, trade bonus and fewer years. Instead of having Ayton under contract through the 2026-27 season, there would be the possibility of him becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024 or 2025.
A sign-and-trade is also an option, but that would require the Suns to cooperate. Plus, Ayton would be subjected to the complex base year compensation rule if he were signed and traded to a team over the cap. For trade purposes, only 50% of Ayton’s incoming salary for a new team applies. That means a $30.5 million salary counts as only $15.7 million in incoming salary, but the full amount still applies toward outgoing salary.
This does not mean Ayton is without leverage. The restricted tag comes with a $16.4 million qualifying offer.
The one-year offer is an insurance policy that Ayton can rely on in case negotiations drag out all summer. In the unlikely scenario that the contract is signed, Ayton would have a no-trade clause and Phoenix would likely lose him for nothing in 2023 when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
There have been 13 former first-round selections who have signed a qualifying offer, with only former Piston Greg Monroe securing a lucrative contract with his next team. The center signed a three-year, $51.4 million contract in 2015 with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Signing the offer sheet also comes at a significant risk for Ayton when factoring in the financial exposure if an injury were to occur next season.
There is a pathway for Ayton and the Suns to reach an agreement on a five-year, $177 million contract, but that would require both sides to reach a compromise, something that did not occur last October.
Similar to the Michael Porter Jr. extension that was signed with the Denver Nuggets, the Suns could heavily incentivize the $40.3 million salary in the fifth season. Porter Jr. had $12 million in guaranteed salary, with the remaining balance coming if certain benchmarks (All-Star, All-NBA, All-Defensive, games played and winning an NBA championship) were reached in the prior seasons.
Here is what a sample Ayton contract with the Suns would look like:
- 2022-23 | $30.5 million
- 2023-24 | $32.9 million
- 2024-25 | $35.4 million
- 2025-26 | $37.8 million
- 2026-27 | $40.3 million
The contract in the final season is guaranteed for $15 million with the protection increasing to full if Ayton played in 68 games in three of the four seasons and the Suns won the NBA championship in any season.
In total, Ayton would be guaranteed $152 million out of the $177 million of salary.
Devin Booker
The Suns’ most tenured player is now likely to receive the largest contract in franchise history.
If this season’s MVP voting is an indication (he finished fourth overall), Booker will see his name on one of the three All-NBA teams.
With that honor comes the financial reward of a four-year, $211 million supermax extension that will begin in 2024-25. Booker still has two years left on the rookie max extension that he signed in 2018.
- $47.1 million | Age: 28 (2024-25)
- $50.8 million | Age: 29 (2025-26)
- $54.6 million | Age: 30 (2026-27)
- $58.4 million | Age: 31 (2027-28)
The supermax tends to come with a warning sign, because often that player is rewarded from the prior years and not his future production.
However, considering Booker is coming off his most complete season and will be only 28 at the time the extension kicks in, the cost is justified.
“He has taken a program from 19 wins to 60-plus wins in three years,” head coach Monty Williams told Andscape. “No one recognizes it for what it is. He is part of the best backcourt in the game, and still people don’t recognize it. I can’t explain it, but people just aren’t giving him his due.”
Since the All-Star break, Booker was one of three players to average 30 points while shooting 50% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers, per ESPN Stats & Information research. The other players were Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum. He is also one of three players to average at least 25 points in each of the past four seasons, joining Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.
Defensively, he averaged a career-high 1.1 steals and held opponents to a career-best 41.9% as the closest defender (according to Second Spectrum tracking) and contested 88.4% of shots faced as the closest defender for the first time in his career.
If there is a concern to the supermax it is the $113 million that Booker is owed in the final two seasons.
He is currently 13th in minutes played since the 2015-16 season, and that ranking should jump to the top 10 as the 2026-27 season approaches.
Cameron Johnson
Johnson is the fourth and final Suns player who is rookie-extension eligible.
The forward is coming off a career season in which he averaged 26.2 minutes and 12.5 points, and shot 42.5% from deep, fourth best in the NBA.
With Jae Crowder now entering the last year of this contract, Johnson is a priority. But is Phoenix willing to pay starter money for a player who finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting?
In 16 games as a starter, Johnson averaged 16.3 points, 49% from the field and 42% on 3-pointers. He would go on to average 17.3 points, shooting 50% from the field and 44% on 3-pointers, in games in which he played at least 30 minutes.
Offseason cap breakdown and depth chart
Team needs
- Backup power forward and center
- Resources to build the roster
Own free agents: Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee
Exceptions: $6.4M tax midlevel
Draft: Future first-round picks (starting in 2023)
Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
June 29: The Suns will tender Ayton a $16.4 million qualifying offer. The one-year contract is the largest in NBA history and Ayton will now become a restricted free agent. Ishmail Wainright ($1.8 million) and Gabriel Lundberg ($50,000) are also eligible to receive a qualifying offer.
Restrictions
- The poison pill restrictions for Landry Shamet will get lifted on July 1. For trade purposes from now until June 30, the outgoing salary in a trade is the fourth year of his contract and the incoming salary for the new team is the average of the extension and last year of the rookie scale contract. For example, if Shamet is traded, his outgoing salary is $3.8 million and incoming salary is $9.2 million. Mikal Bridges also has a poison pill restriction in his contract that gets lifted on July 1.
- The Suns are allowed to trade a 2023 first-round pick starting on the night of the draft.
Extension eligible
- Crowder is entering the final year of his contract and is extension eligible. The forward is eligible to sign a four-year $58.3 million contract. Crowder started all 67 games he played this season, averaging 9.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and shooting 34.8% from 3. The future finances of Phoenix (new contracts for Ayton, Booker and Johnson) will certainly factor into the decision to extend Crowder.
- Dario Saric missed the entire 2021-22 season recovering from a torn right ACL. He recently underwent surgery to repair the meniscus in the same right knee. It is highly unlikely Saric would receive a new contract.
The draft
- The Suns’ first-round pick was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Chris Paul trade.
- Phoenix does not have a second-rounder.
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