The NBA’s regular season is nearly complete, so let’s show some love to the defensive end of the court in this special edition of the NBA mailbag.
Throughout the NBA season, I will be answering your questions about the latest, most interesting topics in basketball. You can tweet me directly at @kpelton, tweet your questions using the hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to peltonmailbag@gmail.com.
This week’s edition of the NBA mailbag includes:
- Does defense still matter in an offensive-minded, perimeter-oriented league?
- How important is on-ball defense vs. rim protection?
- Who are my picks for this year’s Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defensive Teams?
“I saw in a previous mailbag of yours talking about how in the NBA that shot-making is more important than shot quality. Knowing this, along with the fact that offenses are higher powered than they have ever been, are we at a point where defense doesn’t really matter and the only ‘defense’ is the luck of the shots not going in?”
— Brett Hullihen
I certainly wouldn’t go that far, but I do have to grudgingly admit the evidence seems to suggest that defense has become less important during this unusual regular season.
One way to look at this is the spread in ratings on both ends of the court. The standard deviation of teams’ defensive ratings relative to league average is the lowest it’s been since the 1984-85 season, while the standard deviation in offensive ratings is the second highest we’ve seen since 2007-08. That’s one way of showing that offense is not just winning the battle with defense but also controlling it.
Another way to show that is the correlation between a team’s defensive rating and its overall win percentage (.546). That’s the lowest it’s been since 1985-86. Meanwhile, there’s a far stronger correlation between a team’s offensive rating and its win percentage (.848). In general, offense tends to relate better to winning games than defense in the NBA. Typically, the two figures are much closer together than we see now.
I still wouldn’t take this as evidence teams should just hope opponents miss their 3s. Although the relationship between opponent shot quality (as measured by Second Spectrum’s quantified shot quality metric, qSQ) is down too, opponent 3-point percentage isn’t playing a bigger role in teams’ defensive success. In fact, the correlation between opponent 3-point percentage and defensive rating is lower than it was last season, when a number of teams built strong defenses by selling out to protect the paint while giving up copious 3s.
I’d also point to the Utah Jazz as an example of how the traditional theory of defense can still work. Because of Rudy Gobert‘s ability to protect the rim, the other Jazz defenders have been able to stay home on shooters and force opponents to take lower-value shots. Utah has the league’s third-lowest opponent shot quality and has tied with the New York Knicks for the worst opponent shot-making relative to shot quality, producing the league’s best shot defense overall.
That brings us to our second question.
“How important is an elite on-ball defender relative to a rim protector?”
— Ed M.
This year’s Defensive Player of the Year debate seems to have centered on Gobert vs. Ben Simmons, two players who fill different roles for their teams’ defenses. While the Jazz try to keep Gobert around the basket as much as possible, the Philadelphia 76ers deploy Simmons as a stopper, leveraging his ability to defend far smaller opponents at 6-foot-10 to use him against the best threat on the other team regardless of position.
When it comes to assessing player types, I like to use adjusted plus-minus data because it doesn’t require any assumptions or carry any biases. It’s just asking whether the team is better with the player on the court. When we look at the five-year version of regularized adjusted plus-minus on NBAshotcharts.com, which tends not to be as noisy as single-year versions, rim protectors filter to the top on defense:
I’ve also included where these 10 ranked among the group of 384 players to see at least 2,500 minutes since 2016-17 in three other metrics to divide them into roles:
- Opponent shooting percentage as a primary defender at the rim, via Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats
- Steal rate from Stathead.com
- Average usage rate of opponent matchups from Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats box scores (only available since 2017-18)
Half of the top 10 players in defensive RAPM over this span, as well as the top three, are primarily valuable because of their rim protection. The rest generally provide a mix of disruptive and on-ball defense (Jimmy Butler, Robert Covington and Paul George, although the quality of Covington’s on-ball defense is more debatable). Only Andre Roberson made the top 10 primarily on his ability to shut down high-usage scorers. Justise Winslow’s defensive value is more difficult to place based on these measures.
It’s evident that at the extremes, rim protectors generally have more impact than even the best on-ball defenders like Simmons who also contribute a high steal rate. (He’s just outside the top 10 there this season, while ranking 46th in highest opponent usage rate.) From that standpoint, it’s fair to wonder whether we’re actually debating Gobert vs. the right Sixers player.
Philadelphia’s defensive success has been driven primarily by lineups with both Embiid and Simmons, which rank in the 98th percentile among qualifying lineups defensively according to Cleaning the Glass. Lineups with only Simmons rank in the 58th percentile defensively. (Shockingly, lineups with only Embiid rank in the 18th percentile, though that sample is naturally much smaller and seems to feature fluky 3-point shooting.)
Meanwhile, the Jazz have depended heavily on Gobert after swapping out defense for offense in 2019-20, when they went to a smaller starting lineup with Bojan Bogdanovic at power forward. Despite upgrading their backup center spot with the return of Derrick Favors, Utah has allowed 11.1 points per 100 possessions fewer with Gobert on the court according to NBA Advanced Stats — a larger differential than in either of Gobert’s previous two Defensive Player of the Year campaigns.
To me, Gobert is a clear choice as this year’s winner.
“Who belongs on this year’s All-Defensive Teams?”
— C.D.
Point guards
First team: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
While I don’t think Simmons has been the NBA’s most valuable defender this season, there’s less debate that he’s been the most valuable among point guards.
Second team: Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks
I felt pangs of regret not having Holiday on my All-Defensive ballot last season as soon as he locked up Ja Morant in the opening game of the restart. (You’ll recall that last year’s ballots were due prior to the start of bubble play.) If not quite as versatile as Simmons, Holiday is still capable of defending any of the three perimeter positions, and his ability to hold his own in the post has been key as the Bucks have dipped their toes into the switching waters.
Honorable mention: Alex Caruso, Los Angeles Lakers; T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers; Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs
Caruso is notable because he’s the only player I will highlight from the Lakers, who boast the NBA’s best defensive rating. LeBron James has surely been their most important defender, but the Lakers managed to stay elite without both LeBron and Anthony Davis — a testament both to strength of their scheme and the value of not putting any poor defenders on the court. McConnell has made an art form of stealing inbound passes and ranks second in steals per game (1.8) as a reserve. Two years removed from an ACL tear, Murray is back to hounding opponents with his length and specializes in swiping entry passes by his own matchup.
Shooting guards
First team: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
Don’t blame Miami’s disappointing regular season on the defense (the Heat are still a top-10 unit) or Butler, who’s been a consistent force there. Miami has allowed 6.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Butler on the court.
Second team: Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder
Even as Dort has gotten more opportunities to run the Oklahoma City offense in the second half of the season, he hasn’t forgotten his roots as a physical on-ball defender. The numbers suggest Dort’s occasional gambles on defense aren’t costing more than the plays he makes.
Honorable mention: De’Anthony Melton, Memphis Grizzlies; Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics; Derrick White, San Antonio Spurs
Melton and White would have stronger cases for an All-Defensive spot if they’d played more than about 1,000 minutes each. The Grizzlies are consistently far better defensively with Melton creating havoc on the court while White is the NBA’s premier guard shot-blocker. This hasn’t been the strongest defensive season for Smart, typically an All-Defensive fixture.
Small forward
First team: Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
We’re not quite back to vintage, Defensive Player of the Year-level Leonard on defense — his steal and block rates are both substantially down from then — but we’ve seen more consistently strong effort this season. And Kawhi can still shift into stopper mode for important moments.
Second team: Matisse Thybulle, Philadelphia 76ers
In terms of influence per possession played, there might not be a more impactful perimeter defender in the league than Thybulle, who has managed to translate his menacing play in a 2-3 zone at the University of Washington into (mostly) man-to-man schemes in the NBA without the miscues we saw as a rookie. Thybulle leads the league in steal rate and is blocking shots more frequently than the average center. Limited minutes (20.1 MPG) help Thybulle go all out when he’s on the court, but because he has played in all but three Sixers games, his total minutes aren’t far off those of many starters who have missed time.
Honorable mentions: OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors; Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns; Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies
Anunoby and Bridges are both rising 3-and-D players with contrasting styles. Anunoby utilizes bruising strength against opponents, while Bridges leverages go-go gadget arms and strong lateral mobility. I’ve always been a tad skeptical of Brooks’ physical style — his 3.6 fouls per game rank third in the league and no other perimeter player averages more than 3.1 — but his ability to defend up a position has enabled the Grizzlies to play smaller lineups and they’ve been stronger defensively with him on the court.
Power forward
First team: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
Along with vintage Stephen Curry on offense, it’s also been fun to see Green back playing the kind of defense he did before a low-energy 2019-20 season. As the Warriors’ offense revolves around Curry, so is their top-five defense built around Green’s ability to put teammates in the right positions and pop up in multiple spots to put out fires.
Second team: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
After winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2019-20, Giannis hasn’t made quite the same impact at the defensive end this season. Still, he remains perhaps the best rim protector at power forward. Only Green among forwards has seen opponents shoot a lower percentage at the rim as a primary defender, and the difference between the two is marginal.
Honorable mention: Robert Covington, Portland Trail Blazers; Jae Crowder, Phoenix Suns; Jae’Sean Tate, Houston Rockets
Although Portland hasn’t taken an anticipated defensive jump after adding Covington, that’s largely because of other issues in the frontcourt. Lineups with Covington and Jusuf Nurkic rank in the 79th percentile defensively per Cleaning the Glass. Remember to give Crowder some of the credit rightfully going to Chris Paul for Phoenix’s jump this season, as single-season RAPM suggests he’s been the team’s most important defender. Tate has been one of my favorite defenders to watch. As my colleague Zach Lowe highlighted early in the season, unsuspecting stars assumed they had a mismatch when Tate switched out early in the season only to find out that he’s like a smaller Green in terms of his ability to defend a variety of matchups.
Center
First team: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
There’s no debate here.
Second team: Clint Capela, Atlanta Hawks
Given Capela seemed more like an offense-first player in Houston, his emergence as a dominant paint protector who belongs on the Defensive Player of the Year ballot — chronicled by Lowe this week — has been a fun surprise. Capela is both blocking shots and grabbing defensive rebounds at career-high rates, leading the league in the latter category. He excels at blocking shots with his left hand and is versatile enough to defend on the perimeter when necessary.
Honorable mention: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers; Jakob Poeltl, San Antonio Spurs; Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
All three of these centers are also reasonable candidates for the Defensive Player of the Year ballot. Turner and Poeltl have both contested more shots at the rim on a per-minute basis than Gobert, and that’s not just because opponents are intimidated by Gobert. According to Second Spectrum’s qSQ, both have had a similar impact on opponent shot quality when on the court vs. on the bench as Gobert. (Turner ranks second in the league by this metric, Poeltl fourth and Gobert fifth.)
Poeltl and Turner drop back a bit because they’re not as effective on the defensive glass or defending away from the basket as Gobert. By contrast to this group, Embiid hasn’t been as dominant a rim protector.
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