After a disastrous season that saw the Los Angeles Lakers miss the playoffs for the second time in the LeBron James era, the Lakers’ front office wasted little time in making changes.
Head coach Frank Vogel, who led the Lakers to a championship just 18 months ago, is out, and former Milwaukee Bucks assistant Darvin Ham becomes the team’s fifth different head coach in 10 seasons. The last Lakers coach to make it to his fourth season was Phil Jackson in his second tenure, which ended following the 2010-11 campaign.
The hiring of Ham will certainly give the Lakers a fresh perspective, but in reality, he will be walking into the same situation that Vogel left behind. The Lakers are a team coming off their worst season since 2016-17, with $130 million committed to the trio of James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, and entering this summer, they have little flexibility to change the roster via free agency, the draft and trades.
State of the roster
Roster status: Championship or bust but with cracks in the foundation.
Last offseason, the Lakers traded for Westbrook hoping he could be a third star alongside James and Davis, and filled out the roster with mostly minimum salary veterans around that trio.
The trade backfired (and we are saying that politely) and the missed opportunities in free agency have the Lakers entering this offseason with more questions than answers, starting with the search for a new head coach.
Winning a championship in 2020 should have bought job security and more equity for Vogel. Instead, he’s out after the failed Westbrook experiment, despite injuries to James and Davis forcing him to use 39 different starting lineups in 2021-22.
The situation the next head coach is walking into is far from ideal. Most of the roster is unsigned next season. James is entering the final year of his contract and Davis has proven over the last two seasons (and longer, going back to his tenure with the New Orleans Pelicans) to be one of the least durable players in the NBA. Even in the unlikely situation that the Lakers make Davis available in trade talks, his value right now is at an all-time low.
The Lakers are in the lottery but their pick will belong to the Pelicans or Memphis Grizzlies, they have no second round pick and no ability to sign free agents outside of the $6.3 midlevel exception and veteran minimum.
There is also the question if Westbrook will be on the roster when training camp starts.
The Lakers’ financial situation could improve in 2023 when Westbrook’s $47.1 million contract comes off the books (assuming they don’t trade him before then), but if James signs an extension, the Lakers will have $100 million in salary tied up between James, Davis and Talen Horton-Tucker.
The foundation is full of cracks and Lakers are relying more on hopes for good health than the limited resources they have in free agency. Before Davis went down with a sprained MCL in December, the Lakers were 16-13, good enough for a top-6 spot in the Western Conference standings. After that date, Los Angeles had the fifth-worst record in the NBA, as James and Davis both missed significant time.
Russell Westbrook’s future
Westbrook has become the symbol of the Lakers’ failed season.
That’s what happens when a team trades multiple players who contributed to a championship (Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) and further weakens — if not altogether eliminates — its flexibility to improve the roster.
Despite averaging 18.3 points, 7.1 assists and 7.5 rebounds, Westbrook has struggled in finding a role that impacts winning for the Lakers. He had an effective field goal of 41.6% on jumpers this season, second worst among players who attempted 300 shots (Julius Randle was first).
Westbrook averaged 75.5 touches this season, his fewest since 2013-14.
“My role and what I’m doing has changed every single night,” Westbrook said earlier this season. “So I’m just trying to figure that out as I’m playing and to be able to benefit and help my team.”
Per Second Spectrum, Westbrook averaged 37.4 direct touches this season, defined as touches that lead directly to a basketball action (shot, assist opportunity, foul, turnover). That is his fewest in a season since player tracking began in 2013-14 and down from 53.3 last season.
Westbrook’s failure to fit on the court was further magnified when the veteran free agents signed last year, such as Rajon Rondo, Kent Bazemore, Avery Bradley, DeAndre Jordan, Trevor Ariza and Wayne Ellington, had little to no impact on the court.
There can still be a role for Westbrook for a team next season, but his $47.1 million salary — the highest in the league — does not line up with his on-court production. As for what is next, despite career earnings of $292 million, Westbrook is all but certain to opt-into his contract by June 29.
From there, the Lakers will decide on four different options:
- Is there a trade that can improve our roster?
- Do we entertain waiving and stretching his $47.1 million salary over the next three seasons, starting in 2022-23?
- Would Westbrook take a buyout?
- Do we hold on to Westbrook with the belief that the next head coach can utilize him differently?
History has proven that any player is tradable, but to make a trade work — unless a team like Oklahoma City (before June 30), San Antonio, Orlando, Portland, Indiana or Detroit is willing to absorb the Westbrook contract into cap space — the Lakers would have to take back $36 million in salary if he is traded before June 30 and $37.7 million after July 1. Because of the player option, he cannot be moved until the option is exercised.
To move Westbrook into cap space, the Lakers would have to add significant draft compensation to the deal, and can’t trade one of their future picks until their 2027 pick.
We will certainly hear the name of Houston Rockets guard John Wall mentioned in trade talks. Would the Lakers be willing to sweeten the deal by adding draft compensation, something they weren’t amendable at the trade deadline?
They will certainly explore breaking up the $47.1 million contract into multiple players, something the Washington Wizards did last August when Westbrook was shipped to the Lakers. This is likely a dead end option unless a team like the New York Knicks is willing to part ways with Kemba Walker, Evan Fournier and Alec Burks.
The waive and stretch option helps the Lakers if they want to cut ties with Westbrook either in a standard waiver or buyout. By stretching the $47.1 million salary and leaving themselves with a $15.7 million dead cap hit, the Lakers would have the full $10.3 million midlevel and $4 million biannual exception available. It would also keep them out of the luxury tax and create significant savings. The negative is that the Lakers would carry that same $15.7 million cap hit in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, reducing their future flexibility.
What happens if a trade does not materialize or either side does not entertain a buyout? Westbrook would be on his fifth coach in as many years, and unless the new coach utilizes the guard in a different way, expect the same on-court results from this past season.
Rob Pelinka
Though Vogel was fired after the season, Lakers vice president Rob Pelinka should get the benefit of the doubt and remain in his position. After all, it was Pelinka who built the roster in the 2019 offseason that eventually went on to win the NBA championship in 2020.
However, this offseason is different.
The Lakers are not armed with $34 million in cap space to build their roster around James and Davis like they had in 2019. Instead, the Lakers once again enter the offseason with only the veteran minimum exception and $6.3 million taxpayer midlevel exception to utilize on the eight available roster spots.
For the Lakers to have better results than the free agents they signed last offseason, they must be less reliant on veterans who were previously on the roster or at the tail end of their careers. That thinking last year proved fatal as the Lakers brought back the familiar faces of Rondo, Bazemore, Bradley, Ariza, Ellington and Dwight Howard. The older roster led to a stagnant offense in the half-court.
Per Second Spectrum, the Lakers ranked last in average speed on half-court sets. They spent 70% of the time walking or standing still on offense in the half-court, the highest rate in the NBA.
The offseason acquisitions who had the biggest impact were an undrafted guard (Austin Reaves) and two former lottery picks who’d been cast off by their original teams (Stanley Johnson and Malik Monk). Monk outplayed his $1.8 million contract this season, but the Lakers are limited to offering him only the $6.3 million tax midlevel exception to re-sign him. Fortunately, Reaves is on a non-guaranteed contract and Johnson has a team option.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
- Starting point, shooting guard and power forward
- Depth at every position
Resources to build the roster
- Draft picks: 2027, 2028 or 2029 first
- Exceptions: $6.3 million tax, veteran minimum and trade ($2.7 and $1.7 million)
- The tradable contract of Horton-Tucker
- $6.3 million midlevel exception
- Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
- JUNE 22: Kendrick Nunn has a $5.3 million player option that he must pick up by this date. Nunn did not play in a game this season because of a knee injury. If Nunn declines his option, the likelihood is that his next contract is $3 million lower than what he could earn with the Lakers next season.
- JUNE 29: Westbrook has a $47.1 million player option that he must opt-into by this date.
- JUNE 29: Johnson ($2.4M) and Wenyen Gabriel ($1.9M) have team options that must be picked up by this date.
- JUNE 29: The last date to tender Mason Jones ($50K) a qualifying offer.
- There is no guaranteed date on the $1.6 million contract of Austin Reaves.
Restrictions
- The Lakers owe the Pelicans a first-round pick in either 2024 or 2025, and cannot trade any pick before that. They can trade their picks starting with the one in 2027. They also have a 2028 and 2029 first-round pick available to trade, but cannot trade all three.
- Davis has a 15% trade bonus in his contract. If Davis is traded after July 1, the bonus is $8.7 million. That amount is split evenly and added to his 2022-23 and 2023-24 salary. The Lakers would be responsible for paying the full amount.
- James has a 15% trade bonus that is voided in a trade. The amount would exceed the maximum salary allowed.
- Until his salary is guaranteed, Reaves counts as $0 in outgoing salary.
- Johnson and Gabriel cannot be traded until their team options are exercised.
Extension-eligible
- Circle Aug. 4 on your calendar. That is the first date that James is eligible to sign a two-year, $97.1 million extension ($46.7 and $50.4 million). James has given no indication that he wants to play for another organization. “This is a franchise I see myself being with. I’m here. I’m here,” James said after the Lakers’ 105-102 loss to the LA Clippers. “I see myself being with the purple and gold as long as I can play.” He has until June 30, 2023 to sign the extension and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2023 if he plays out the season.
Westbrook is the only player besides James who is extension eligible.
The draft
The Lakers have no picks in this draft, because of the moves to acquire Davis in 2019. They traded their first-round pick to New Orleans as part of the Davis trade, and traded their second-round pick to Washington as part of a move to clear up cap space to make the Davis trade.
They also still owe the Pelicans an additional future first-round pick. The Pelicans can take it 2024 or defer it to 2025. New Orleans also has the right to swap first-round picks with the Lakers in 2023, which means the Lakers will have a pick in that draft (just not necessarily their own).
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