Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy’s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk’s Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets, as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, including a potential Tuesday game.
Raiders (2-2) at Chiefs (4-0)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 66.5 | Spread: KC -11 (55)
What to watch for: Can Raiders quarterback Derek Carr improve his play at Arrowhead Stadium? That would seem necessary if the Raiders are to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City for the first time since 2012. Carr is 0-6 against the Chiefs on the road, with four touchdown passes, seven interceptions, a QBR of 14.4 and a long pass of 33 yards. The Chiefs have changed players, coordinators, systems and tactics against Carr, and everything has continued to work. The Raiders have been outscored 75-12 in two games against the Chiefs at Arrowhead since Patrick Mahomes became Kansas City’s starting QB. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Carr will not be picked off and will extend his interception-free streak to nine games. The last time Carr was intercepted was on Dec. 1, 2019, when he was picked off twice … at Arrowhead Stadium. But he is completing passes at a 73.6% clip this season with short, safe throws, and he will have to control the ball to keep Mahomes off the field. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Mahomes’ 89.1 Total QBR against the Raiders is his highest against any team that he has played more than once, and his 11 passing touchdowns in four games — in which he went 4-0 — is the highest total he has against any NFL team.
What to know for fantasy: Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is the first Kansas City player with at least six targets and a TD reception in four straight games since Dwayne Bowe did it in five straight in 2010.
Betting nugget: All four Raiders games have gone over the total this season.
Gutierrez’s pick: Chiefs 29, Raiders 12
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: KC, 82.1% (by an average of 12.7 points)
Bengals (1-2-1) at Ravens (3-1)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 55.8 | Spread: BAL -13 (51)
What to watch for: Can Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow continue his unprecedented start this week against the Ravens? He set an NFL record on Sunday by becoming the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw for 300 or more yards in three straight games. Since John Harbaugh became coach of the Ravens in 2008, Baltimore is 12-1 against rookie QBs at home, allowing just four to surpass 300 yards passing. The Ravens also have recorded 16 interceptions against rookie starters in Baltimore during the Harbaugh era, while producing five times as many sacks (36) as TD passes given up (seven). — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: The Ravens will rush for 200 total yards. One of the strongest rush offenses in the league is going up against one of the league’s worst rushing defenses. Between that and the rushing ability of Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, it could be a big day for the Ravens’ ground game. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Bengals haven’t gone three straight games without a loss in a single season since starting 8-0 in 2015, and they haven’t had consecutive wins since Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2018 season.
What to know for fantasy: Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon has failed to average over 4.0 yards per carry in four straight matchups with the Ravens. In those games, he has averaged 3.1 yards per carry, with no rush gaining more than 21 yards. See Week 5 rankings.
Betting nugget: Jackson is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite since becoming the Ravens’ starting QB in 2018.
Baby’s pick: Ravens 40, Bengals 21
Hensley’s pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 81.6% (by an average of 12.4 points)
Eagles (1-2-1) at Steelers (3-0)
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 49.3 | Spread: PIT -7 (43.5)
What to watch for: The Steelers are fired up after not getting to play in Week 4 because of a COVID-19 outbreak in Tennessee. The team was on a roll to start the season at 3-0, and it looking to go 4-0 for the first time since 1979 — a season that ended in a Super Bowl. Look for the Steelers to unleash the frustration of last week while also trying to get back into the rhythm of a balanced offense and a complementary defense they established in the Week 3 win against the Texans. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has seven passing touchdowns through his team’s first three games, whereas Philadelphia signal-caller Carson Wentz has seven interceptions through his squad’s opening four contests. Wentz’s seven picks are the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Since Week 15 of the 2017 season, just once has a player rushed for 90 yards against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Betting nugget: Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS against Pittsburgh since 2008. .
McManus’ pick: Steelers 24, Eagles 20
Pryor’s pick: Steelers 27, Eagles 10
FPI prediction: PIT, 67.9% (by an average of 6.4 points)
Rams (3-1) at Washington (1-3)
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 44.8 | Spread: LAR -7 (45.5)
What to watch for: All eyes will be on new Washington starting quarterback Kyle Allen’s performance. Washington benched Dwayne Haskins Jr. after four lackluster games, with concerns about his maturation as an NFL quarterback. Allen knows the offense better, having played under Ron Rivera with the Panthers, and the coaches are hoping Allen makes the plays they feel have been available. But Allen has to take care of the ball; he turned it over 15 times in his last seven starts with Carolina in 2019. That includes three lost fumbles, so he must do a better job against a team that ranks fifth in the NFL with 12 sacks. — John Keim
Bold prediction: Rams running back Darrell Henderson Jr., who was quiet in Week 3, will break out for the second 100-yard rushing game of his career. The Rams are coming off an uninspiring offensive performance against the Giants, so watch for L.A. to establish the run game early against a Washington team that is allowing an average of 129.8 rushing yards per game. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Washington is just 33.3% in converting on third down this season, the worst mark in the NFL. And that’s actually an improvement from 2019, when it was 29.1% (also last).
Injuries: Rams | Washington
What to know for fantasy: Washington running back Antonio Gibson has a rushing score and at least 12 touches in three straight games. During those three games, his 1.16 PPR points per touch ranks eighth among qualifiers — ahead of Dalvin Cook among others. .
Betting nugget: The Rams are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite of at least six points under Sean McVay.
Thiry’s pick: Rams 32, Washington 17
Keim’s pick: Rams 24, Washington 23
FPI prediction: LAR, 70.9% (by an average of 7.6 points)
Panthers (2-2) at Falcons (0-4)
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 37.9 | Spread: ATL -1.5 (54)
What to watch for: The Falcons desperately need a win with Dan Quinn’s job status in limbo, but the coach has preached to his team that the first NFC South game offers a chance for a new start. Although wide receiver Julio Jones’ health situation remains unclear as he comes off a hamstring injury, the Falcons are on track to get some key players back in A.J. Terrell, Ricardo Allen, and Takkarist McKinley. The sense of desperation should have the Falcons clicking better in the first home game with fans. — Vaughn McClure
Bold prediction: The Panthers will leave Atlanta above .500. That is about as bold as it gets for a team that started the year 0-2, opened as a 2.5-point underdog to an 0-4 team and hasn’t won at Atlanta since 2014. But the Panthers have momentum with two straight wins. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Falcons are 0-4 for the first time since 1999, and a loss to Carolina would mark their first 0-5 start since 1997.
What to know for fantasy: Carolina running back Mike Davis is averaging seven receptions per game this season, not much different than the 7.3 grabs Christian McCaffrey averaged during his historic 2019.
Betting nugget: Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 18-4 ATS and 11-11 outright in his career as an underdog.
Newton’s pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 24
McClure’s pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 21
FPI prediction: ATL, 55.0% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Jaguars (1-3) at Texans (0-4)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 23.7 | Spread: HOU -6 (54.5)
What to watch for: The Texans haven’t topped 23 points even once in four games this season, but the Jaguars have allowed 30 or more in three straight games. Will Houston’s offense rebound in the first game since the firing of Bill O’Brien on Monday? This is their best matchup of the season so far and a good place to get going after a lackluster start. — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson will throw for 330-plus yards and four TDs. The Jaguars’ pass defense has been bad over the past month; they can’t get pressure, and the coverage has been spotty, at best. Watson should have no trouble moving the ball. And even if rookie cornerback CJ Henderson plays, he is dealing with a shoulder injury and has been just OK after an impressive debut in the season opener. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Romeo Crennel will become the oldest head coach in NFL history. The Texans’ interim will be 73 years, 115 days old on Sunday. Only George Halas and Marv Levy have coached a game at over 70 years old, per Elias Sports Bureau data.
What to know for fantasy: Jacksonville tailback James Robinson joins Alvin Kamara as the only players with 100 total yards in each of the past three weeks.
Betting nugget: Teams that replace their head coach during the season are 14-22 ATS in the first game with their successor since 2000 (13-23 straight up).
DiRocco’s pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20
Barshop’s pick: Texans 31, Jaguars 20
FPI prediction: HOU, 66.6% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Cardinals (2-2) at Jets (0-4)
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 22.4 | Spread: ARI -7 (46.5)
What to watch for: Forget about elite; Jets quarterback Joe Flacco, starting for the injured Sam Darnold, will be hard-pressed to reach “average.” He hasn’t started a game in nearly a year, and he has had very little practice time after missing training camp. A rusty, immobile quarterback behind a leaky offensive line is not a good combination. The Jets are 31st in red zone efficiency, while the Arizona defense is fourth. Do the math. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: The Cardinals will put up 40 on the lowly Jets, who are allowing 32.8 points per game, the third most in the NFL. The Cardinals are averaging 24.5 points per game, but their offense is due for a breakout after struggling over the past two weeks. And what’s a better time to do it than against one of the worst teams in football? — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Arizona wideout DeAndre Hopkins has 39 receptions, which leads the NFL. He needs nine against the Jets to break the record for the most catches through a team’s first five games of a season.
What to know for fantasy: Arizona QB Kyler Murray and Buffalo QB Josh Allen are the only two players, regardless of position, with at least 21 fantasy points in all four weeks this season.
Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-4 ATS this season. They are failing to cover games by 10.5 points per game, the worst cover differential in the NFL this season.
Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 42, Jets 28
Cimini’s pick: Cardinals 24, Jets 13
FPI prediction: ARI, 57.1% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Dolphins (1-3) at 49ers (2-2)
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 52.3 | Spread: SF -9 (49.5)
What to watch for: How will the 49ers bounce back after a disappointing defeat last week? The Niners have dropped both of their home games, and though last week’s loss to Philadelphia could be explained by a combination of injuries and a hangover from a long stay out East, they should have that out of their system and could be welcoming back more key pieces. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have to make one of the league’s longest trips for this one. If the Niners fall to 2-3 before entering the meat of their schedule, their postseason hopes could slip away sooner rather than later. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Dolphins running back Matt Breida breaks off a 50-plus-yard touchdown against his former team. Breida has only had one play over 11 yards so far this year in a surprisingly limited role, but he has started to show more of his explosiveness and figures to have a bigger role in this game against a banged-up 49ers defense. Breida spent the first three years of his career with the 49ers before being traded for a fifth-round pick in a draft weekend deal, and though he doesn’t have any animosity toward his former team, it’s likely he’ll want to prove they made a mistake. — Cameron Wolfe
Stat to know: 49ers tight end George Kittle posted 183 receiving yards in Week 4 for his ninth career game of 100-plus yards. But he has never had consecutive games with at least 100 receiving yards.
What to know for fantasy: Miami wide receiver DeVante Parker’s yardage total has increased each week this season, and he has 21.8 more points through four weeks this season than he did during his 2019 breakout.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 6-11-1 ATS at home over the past three seasons.
Wolfe’s pick: 49ers 27, Dolphins 23
Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 27, Dolphins 19
FPI prediction: SF, 78.7% (by an average of 10.9 points)
Colts (3-1) at Browns (3-1)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 56.5 | Spread: IND -2 (47)
What to watch for: Cleveland’s NFL-leading running game — now without Nick Chubb — is up against Indy’s top-five run defense. This should be a litmus tests for both sides in a true matchup of strength against strength. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Colts will give up 125 yards rushing. Indianapolis will keep the Browns’ rushing offense in check most of the game, regardless of whether the Colts have linebacker Darius Leonard (groin). But Indy will give up one big “chunk” run that will wind up hurting it in the fourth quarter. — Mike Wells
Stat to know: Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton has now gone 15 straight games with fewer than 100 receiving yards, dating back to 2018. It’s the longest streak of his career; his last game with 100-plus yards came with Andrew Luck at QB.
What to know for fantasy: Browns wideout Odell Beckham Jr.’s 38.4 PPR points last week led all receivers and ranked third across all positions. But can he sustain the success? He hasn’t had consecutive 25-point games since Weeks 13 and 14 of the 2015 season. .
Betting nugget: Indianapolis has had three straight games go under the total, and it has covered all three games.
Wells’ pick: Browns 24, Colts 17
Trotter’s pick: Browns 21, Colts 20
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.2% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Giants (0-4) at Cowboys (1-3)
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 39.9 | Spread: DAL -10 (54)
What to watch for: New York offensive coordinator Jason Garrett’s unit needs to get going against the Dallas defensive. In their past three games, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed four, five and six touchdowns to Atlanta, Seattle and Cleveland, respectively. The Giants have scored three TDs in their first four games, but the Cowboys’ defense might be the perfect slumpbuster. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Dallas wide receiver Michael Gallup tops 100 yards with 2 TDs. Forget that Gallup is coming off a quiet game (2-58-0) against the Falcons. The Giants’ defensive weakness is that No. 2 cornerback across from James Bradberry. Whether it’s Isaac Yiadom or Ryan Lewis out there, expect Dak Prescott to exploit the matchup, leading to a big day for Gallup. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Giants have just 306 rushing yards this season, second worst in the NFL and the eighth-fewest total though four games in franchise history. Only twice have they been held under 350 rushing yards through five games (1942 and 2013).
What to know for fantasy: Prescott’s torrid pace cannot be overstated, but don’t forget that there are only six quarterbacks (Prescott being one of them) to have scored more fantasy points than the Cowboys have allowed to the position.
Betting nugget: Dallas is 10-2 ATS against the NFC East over the past three seasons.
Raanan’s pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 16
Archer’s pick: Cowboys 31,Giants 24
FPI prediction: DAL, 79.4% (by an average of 11.3 points)
Vikings (1-3) at Seahawks (4-0)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 69 | Spread: SEA -7 (57.5)
What to watch for: Can Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson continue his historic start and his excellence in prime time? He has thrown 16 touchdown passes this season, tied for the most in NFL history through a team’s first four games. And he has a combined 26-7-1 record over his career in Sunday night, Monday night and Thursday night games. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Seattle achieving its first 5-0 start in franchise history isn’t that bold. You know what is? Wilson and the Seahawks accomplishing that feat in spite of Vikings wideouts Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each scoring a touchdown and posting over 100 yards receiving. Seattle’s defense has allowed 94 catches and 1,345 yards to receivers in the first four games of the season, and that trend is set to continue in Week 5. It’s going to take Wilson another shootout to beat the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook has 424 rushing yards this season, the most in the NFL. The highest total for a Vikings player through five games in the past 20 seasons is 607, set by Adrian Peterson in 2007.
What to know for fantasy: Cook’s touch count has increased each week this season, and he ranks as RB3 despite ranking 16th in expected fantasy points per rush.
Betting nugget: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is 6-15-1 ATS in prime-time games in his career (7-14 outright).
Cronin’s pick: Seahawks 38, Vikings 31
Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 31, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: SEA, 66.5% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Broncos (1-3) at Patriots (2-2)
Monday, 5 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 33.9 | Spread: NE -11 (NA)
What to watch for: The Patriots had an unconventional week, going all virtual on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, meaning there was no on-field practice. How does practice execution become game reality when there is no practice? Meanwhile, the Broncos also have had a long week after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. Advantage goes to Denver in the rest department. — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: Either Broncos tight end Jake Butt or running back Phillip Lindsay will collect his first touchdown reception of the season. Why? Because they’ll have to. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has made a career out of removing the No. 1, and often No. 2, options in the passing game to test a quarterback’s patience and ability to work through the reads. Only Seattle, in Russell Wilson’s five-TD binge in Week 2, was able to consistently get their top targets free. (Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf had touchdown catches in that game.) If the Broncos can’t get some of the “other” guys into the end zone, it will be a difficult afternoon. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Patriots defensive end Chase Winovich ranks fifth in the NFL with a 29.5% pass rush win rate (PRWR), an ESPN metric using NFL Next Gen Stats, and leads league with a 40% PRWR against double-teams.
What to know for fantasy: Julian Edelman registered 52.2% of his points through four games in Week 2 at Seattle.
Betting nugget: New England is 10-0 ATS in tilts that follow fewer than six days of rest since the start of the 2016 season.
Legwold’s pick: Broncos 23, Patriots 21
Reiss’ pick: Patriots 24, Broncos 13
FPI prediction: NE, 60.2% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Chargers (1-3) at Saints (2-2)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
Matchup rating: 51.5 | Spread: NO -8 (51)
What to watch for: This will be a fun quarterback duel between 20-year veteran Drew Brees and rookie Justin Herbert. But what really defines this matchup, unfortunately, is the overwhelming amount of injuries that have plagued both sides. The Saints could potentially get Michael Thomas back from his Week 1 ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Chargers just lost dynamic running back Austin Ekeler for four to six weeks with a hamstring injury. — Mike Triplett
Stat to know: Brees was 5-for-8 for 111 yards and a touchdown on throws of 15-plus yards downfield in Week 4. In the first three games of the campaign, he had just seven such completions and zero touchdowns.
What to know for fantasy: Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been a top-10 RB every week this season and is pacing for 320 touches (current career high is 275).
Betting nugget: New Orleans is 6-9 ATS over the past five seasons when favored by seven or more points at home.
Smith’s pick: Chargers 24, Saints 17
Triplett’s pick: Saints 29, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: NO, 76.2% (by an average of 9.8 points)
Bills (4-0) at Titans (3-0)
Tuesday, 6 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 62.2 | Spread: BUF -8.5 (NA)
What to watch for: The Titans are without several key players, including Adam Humphries, Jeffery Simmons and Corey Davis, who have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. And the team hasn’t practiced or been in their facility to prepare for this game. Keep an eye on how they start the game after having so much time off. If Tennessee gets off to a slow start, this could get ugly quickly. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: The Bills finally get lose in the run game for at least 150 yards. They rank 28th in the league in rushing yards per game, but the Titans rank 29th in rushing yards allowed. It’s a true matchup of a stoppable force meeting a movable object. But Buffalo’s ranking seems more like an outlier, given its top-10 finish last season and improved backfield. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging 11.2 yards per attempt with play-action (fourth) but just 5.9 per attempt without play-action (28th).
What to know for fantasy: Last week, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen tied the longest streak in Bills history with his fourth straight game of 280 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes. The only other instance of that for the Bills was Drew Bledsoe in 2002.
Betting nugget: Tennessee is the third team in Super Bowl era to start 3-0 straight up and 0-3 against the spread (ATS).
Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 38, Titans 24
Davenport’s pick: Bills 35, Titans 21
FPI prediction: BUF, 52.4% (by an average of 0.9 points)
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