A lot has been written and said about the animosity and history between UFC 272 main event opponents Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal. The former teammates and roommates have never been at a loss for words, but as they prepare to step into the Octagon against each other, the fight itself will be a different matter entirely.
Masvidal’s only losses since 2017 happened in a pair of UFC welterweight title shots against Usman. Covington’s only two losses since 2015 happened in his two championship fights against Usman. Each of them want to fight their way back to the top again, and while it’s unclear how close a win in this fight will get them, a loss will undoubtedly serve as a major step backward.
So who will have the edge once the Octagon door slams closed Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas? Brett Okamoto spoke to James Krause for a coach’s perspective.
But that’s not the only fight on the UFC 272 card Saturday. With Rafael Fiziev pulling out of the co-main event due to COVID-19, Renato Moicano stepped in with less than a week’s notice to fight Rafael dos Anjos in a 160-pound catchweight fight. Marc Raimondi broke down the fight with Eric Nicksick of Xtreme Couture MMA.
Additionally, Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker added their betting insights for everything from the main event, to the new co-main, to the rest of the UFC 272 card.
Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
James Krause, Glory MMA
How Masvidal wins: If Masvidal wins, it will probably be by knockout, because I don’t see him winning a decision. He can do it. We’ve seen how dangerous he is at this weight, with knockouts of Darren Till and Ben Askren. I don’t know if he just came into his own skin or what, but there’s a danger factor now that wasn’t there earlier in his career.
Typically when you have a guy come in who was basically a street fighter, which Jorge was, he’s not going to have a high fight IQ. But Jorge is very savvy. He has the highest fight IQ of anyone I have ever personally fought, and it’s by a longshot. He just knows when to pick it up, when to turn it down; he’s an underrated grappler, hard to take down. He had a problem at 155, where his weight cuts were getting to him and he didn’t trust his cardio. Now, he trusts it and he’s knocking people out.
How Covington wins: Colby has to do what Colby does. Put Masvidal on the fence and wrestle him for 25 minutes. This might sound crazy, but I think that stylistically, Masvidal is more dangerous for Colby in open mat striking than Kamaru Usman was. With Usman, you really have to worry about one thing: boxing. He doesn’t kick a lot. His hands are where it’s at. But Masvidal throws knees. His first fight at welterweight he knocked [Cezar Ferreira] out with an elbow. He has flying knee knockouts. He’s a very diverse striker.
Colby’s style is boxing as well, so I think he matched up well with Usman on the feet, but against Masvidal’s diverse game, it’s going to make it more difficult. So, he needs to wrestle, and I think he has to do it in different ways. Masvidal is a veteran. If you come at him with the same s— for 25 minutes, he’s going to find you. So, it’s important for Colby to mix it up, change the cadence, the rhythm and the timing of his entries. Everything for Colby in this fight is going to be around entries and making sure Jorge is reacting to him — because when Jorge figures out, “This guy can’t take me down,” he f—s you up, man. He’s good.
Potential X factor: Jorge might have a big brother advantage. That’s a real thing. I know they were friends at the beginning of their relationship, but Masvidal had so much more experience. I don’t know, but I’m sure it was one of those things where they helped each other, but one had so much more experience than the other. Jorge probably said, “I’m going to help this kid get better.” I can’t dismiss that as nothing. I don’t know how much, but it’s something.
Prediction: Colby by decision.
Betting analysis
Kuhn: Covington to win (-310); over 4.5 rounds (-162); by decision (-120). The storyline will focus on the friends turned enemies, but the stylistic contrast inside the cage will also make for a potential fight of the night. Covington is capable of throwing constant volume at his opponents, and he does so with stifling positional control once he closes the distance. But Masvidal is elusive and technical, and could still land accurate strikes even while he’s backpedaling.
Each minute will follow a similar pattern: Covington applying pressure and volume and Masvidal head hunting and hoping to land a harder shot. Covington throws nearly twice the volume of strikes per minute on the feet than Masvidal. The wildcard is Masvidal’s takedown defense. Masvidal was taken down repeatedly in three of his four losses over the past five years. He’d likely welcome a striking duel, counting on the lack of power behind Covington’s combinations and his own dangerous counters to eventually turn the tide.
But that’s a tall task against a fighter like Covington, who has faced and eaten punches from more powerful strikers than Masvidal. We should expect each to play to their strength, but we’ll need to see something unusual and opportunistic from Masvidal in order for this fight to turn out any result other than a smothering performance from Covington.
Parker: Covington to win (-310); by decision (-120). Covington and Masvidal will be looking to impress and use the other as a stepping stone to get back into the UFC welterweight title picture. While the fight has been built up as an intense rivalry that could lead to a quick finish, this has Covington winning by decision written all over it.
Covington hasn’t lost to anyone not named Kamaru Usman in the welterweight division since 2015, and while Masvidal hasn’t lost to anyone other than Usman since 2017, Covington’s pressure, volume and pace will be too much for Masvidal over the course of five rounds. Masvidal has struggled with pressure fighters and wrestlers in the past, and I see this fight going no differently than Masvidal’s first fight with Usman at UFC 251.
Expect Covington to press forward and use his wrestling to get Masvidal against the cage and control him on the ground for the duration of the fight. Masvidal is extremely tough to put away, though, so I don’t see Covington finishing him inside five rounds.
160-pound catchweight bout: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA
How dos Anjos wins: The grappling. I think that’s the direction he was probably going to go in with Fiziev anyway. Moicano does his best work at what we call “C” range or long, outside range. Dos Anjos needs to back him up to the barrier and close that distance. When we had Paul Felder fight RDA, we were worried about getting backed up to the cage and getting taken down. Dos Anjos does this two-part takedown, where he shoots, gets in on the legs, but doesn’t complete it fully until he has a guy against the cage. Moicano is so long and tall, though, that I don’t think it’s a good idea. For dos Anjos, it should be no two-part takedowns, just grappling and getting through the range.
How Moicano wins: Here’s a guy who just fought recently, won and looked impressive. But what did he do after that fight? Was he in camp? No, he just flew home to Brazil earlier this week. So, he’s not in the best shape, but also not super far out of shape, either. A guy like Moicano, I don’t question them too much. He’s a veteran. It’s a calculated risk on his part to take this fight. He has to use his length and keep his range. Also, he should utilize some anti-wrestling strikes, like knees up the mid-line.
Moicano has nice body work. He can use the rear uppercut and rear body hook to deter the takedown attempts, too. The thing I saw a lot with Felder was that dos Anjos was susceptible to the same side head kick. RDA tends to slip his head to the left, outside of the cross. If Moicano can time some of his same side head kicks off the slips, he could catch him.
X factor: The fact that the game plan for RDA does not change with the switch of opponents. He went from Fiziev, a great striker, to Moicano, who is also a great striker. He’s not fighting Islam Makhachev here, where the game plan would have to totally flip.
Prediction: RDA by decision. I think RDA is going to have to walk through the fire somewhat. I think he’s going to get hit. He did that a lot with Felder. He was willing to get hit to then get in on Felder’s legs. I think RDA is perfectly willing to get into those exchanges to get inside and get in on those legs. But he won’t just wait there — he should blow through the takedowns, rip through, get into half guard, get on top. This shouldn’t be a pretty fight for dos Anjos. I’d tell him not to win over any fans — just go get a win.
Betting analysis
Parker: Dos Anjos to win (-175). Entering the fight with back to back submission wins, Moicano is looking to add a big name like RDA to his resume in the hope that a win catapults him up the lightweight rankings. With a full training camp, I would potentially lean towards Moicano, especially at underdog odds. However, there are a lot of other factors in play. His submission victory over Alexander Hernandez took place almost a month ago and he supposedly just flew back to Brazil a few days ago. So not only is he taking this fight on short notice, he will have to travel back from Brazil, have to cut weight and after not training for three weeks, and then compete in top form in a five round fight. That’s a tough task.
Dos Anjos’ last fight was against Paul Felder back in 2020, and while it was ruled a split decision, Dos Anjos looked like his old self with pressure and excellent grappling. Where Dos Anjos has the most significant advantage over Moicano is cardio. He has experience in five round fights, and he has been training for a main event. RDA is also the better striker of the two. Look for Dos Anjos to pressure early and try to tire out Moicano en route to his second straight victory
Best bets for the rest of the card
Featherweight: Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell
Parker: Barboza to win (+130). Mitchell will be taking on his toughest opponent to date in Barboza. Mitchell’s path to victory is to avoid the precise striking of Barboza and get the fight to the ground as soon as possible. If Mitchell is able to do that, I can see him grinding out a decision. However, I believe the odds are a tad bit off. I understand Mitchell is riding a five-fight win streak and Barboza is 2-2 since 2020, but the level of competition Barboza has faced and his experience speaks for itself. I am going with the betting underdog Barboza here. I believe his takedown defense should be good enough to keep the fight standing, where he will have a huge advantage.
Kuhn: Mitchell to win (-150); inside the distance (-150). Dominant grapplers make for bankable bets, but often at a steep price. One oppressive wet blanket who is a very affordable favorite is Mitchell. Mitchell has spent 46% of his Octagon time controlling opponents on the ground, which is a number normally reserved for wrestlers like Khabib Nurmagomedov or Islam Makhachev. But what has kept the price so tight is the experience and striking of Barboza. Mitchell is unlikely to best Barboza on the feet, but he’s no stranger to forcing a grappling match. His takedowns come at a relentless pace, so even if Barboza defends one or two attempts, they’ll keep coming. Mitchell averages two minutes of control time for each takedown landed, plus a submission attempt on every other trip there, so if and when the fight goes to the ground, Mitchell should make the most of it.
Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy
Parker: Spivak to win (-220); inside the distance (-250). Hardy may well might be fighting for his job against Spivak, or at least his consistent main event spot, as he enters Saturday on a two-fight losing streak. This is a stylistic nightmare for Hardy, especially if he isn’t able to get his striking going early. Spivak was on a 3 fight win streak and starting to get comfortable in the Octagon up until his loss to Tom Aspinall last September. Spivak’s path to victory is the ground game. Look for Spivac to close the distance pretty quickly and clinch against the cage, and eventually make his way to the ground. From there Hardy will be clueless, and Spivac will have his pick of offensive options from there.
Strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan
Parker: Rodriguez to win (-270); by decision (+110). Rodriguez is coming off three impressive victories and will be looking to cement her status as the top contender in the strawweight division with a win over Yan at UFC 272. This should be an exciting fight as both women like to come forward and strike. Unless Yan can land a shot that drops Rodriguez early or potentially take her down, though, I see Rodriguez being able to keep the fight on the feet where she will win in the striking department. The pressure and volume striking of Rodriguez to be too much for Yan, and Rodriguez will get her 4th victory in a row — along with a future title shot.
Women’s flyweight: Mariya Agapova vs. Maryna Moroz
Parker: Agapova to win (-200). Riding a two fight winning streak, Moroz enters the cage for the first time in almost two years. She will look to make it three in a row against rising prospect and rival Agapova. For Moroz, I question how the long layoff will impact her performance, as she was not the most active fighter even before the break, and I don’t see where she is better than Agapova in any category leading into this fight.
Unless she can get the action to the ground and land in top position, I believe Moroz is going to struggle throughout this fight. For Agapova, to say she bounced back from a nightmare of a mistake against Shana Dobson is an understatement. Agapova came into her fight against Sabina Mazo as a big underdog, and not only did she dominate, but she finished the fight by submission. I like Agapova here, wherever the fight goes.
Light heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Kuhn: Oleksiejczuk to win (+170). For a live dog with a better than puncher’s chance, consider Oleksiejczuk. With five knockdowns scored in just six fights, his only losses have been by way of submission. Jacoby is a willing striker who is on the older side, and he has taken a bit more damage to date. Between them, the younger southpaw Oleksiejczuk has slightly better accuracy and better punching power in what should be a striker’s delight.
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