Baseball is a sport stuck in the past, some say.
Baseball is a sport too reliant on technology, others say.
Not changing enough. Changing too much. We enter 2022 with a new collective bargaining agreement between the players and the owners — you may have heard about that little lockout that disrupted the offseason for 99 days. The new CBA means significant changes for 2022 — with even more on-field changes likely for 2023 — plus another season of innovations, crackdowns and new uniforms.
Let’s look at those changes and what they mean for 2022 — starting with the biggest one.
Expanded playoffs
The number of playoff teams expands from 10 to 12 with the addition of a third wild card in each league. For now, MLB is keeping the three-division format in each league, so the two best division winners will receive a first-round bye while the third-best division winner and three wild-card teams compete in a best-of-three first round (with the higher seed hosting all three games). The rest of the postseason (best-of-five division series, best-of-seven LCS and World Series) will remain the same and there will unfortunately be no reseeding after the first round (the No. 1 seed will play the winner of the 4-5 matchup, even if No. 6 beats No. 3).
This format now means 40% of MLB teams will reach the postseason, but it at least provides incentive for finishing with one of the two best records in avoiding that first series so you can rest and set up your rotation.
Of course, it also lowers the bar for qualifying for the playoffs. Over the past 10 seasons (not including 2020), the sixth-best record in the American League averaged 88.3 wins and the sixth-best record in the National League averaged 85.6 wins. In 2021, those teams would have been the 91-71 Blue Jays and 83-79 Reds. Give yourself a pat on the back if you knew the Reds had the sixth-best record in the NL.
If you’re worried about a sub-.500 team making the playoffs, yes, there is a chance it could happen. Over those 10 seasons, there would have been one sub-.500 playoff team, in the 2017 AL when three teams tied for the sixth-best record at 80-82.
An important fallout of this new system is the elimination of tiebreaker games for division titles or determining the final playoff spot, in order to get the playoffs started on time (this year’s World Series was already scheduled to end in early November, even before the lockout). So, sadly, no more Game 163s. Learn those tiebreaker rules!
The unknown ramification is how this will affect the trade deadline. In theory, if more teams have a chance at making the playoffs, that will mean fewer teams dealing away veterans and less opportunity for contenders to add players. Think back to last July. The Cubs were just 4½ games out of the third wild card on July 30. Do they trade Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber? Do the Nationals unload Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers?
It could also be that the incentive of playing a best-of-three series on the road isn’t appealing enough to prevent those trades. It certainly adds another layer of decision-making for front offices.
The schedule
As a result of the lockout, Opening Day was pushed back from March 31 to April 7, with the original schedule picking up on that date. All told, 91 games had to be rescheduled.
Three days of games — the original initial series of the season — were added at the end of the regular season, so the final day is pushed back from Sunday, Oct. 2 to Wednesday, Oct. 5. Two of those (Tigers at Mariners, Yankees at Rangers) were four-game series, so Seattle and Texas will host doubleheaders on Oct. 4. Good news: Doubleheader games are once again nine innings. Controversial news: The ghost runner (starting each frame with a runner on second), however, will remain for extra innings, with a promise that it goes away in 2023.
The second series of that missing first week will be made up throughout the season, either with doubleheaders or on mutual off days. There are now 30 scheduled doubleheaders, with an unusual one taking place on May 10 at Comerica Park. The A’s will serve as the home team in the first game (a makeup game from April 4) and the Tigers will be the home team in the nightcap in the regularly scheduled game.
Usually, teams have several off days during the early weeks of the season, in part a hedge against bad weather. But there will be teams like the Phillies who will play 13 days in a row to begin their season as they host the A’s and Mets and then visit the Marlins and Rockies.
This comes following a shortened spring training that already has managers worried. “It’s a concern I’m sure for every organization in the game, and our situation is tough where it’s 13 in a row,” Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. “Just got to find a way through it and keep everybody healthy, that’s the most important thing.”
For the most part, however, once the season finally begins it will feel pretty normal.
What won’t feel normal, however, is the 2023 schedule — when each team will play all 29 other teams. That discussion is for another day.
Expanded rosters for April
At least Girardi will have a bigger roster to work with. Due to the shorter-than-normal spring training, rosters will be expanded from 26 to 28 players through May 1, allowing teams to carry extra relief pitchers since starters may not be completely stretched out for the start of the season. It will be interesting to see how managers handle their starters early on — while Angels manager Joe Maddon said Shohei Ohtani will be ready to throw 90 pitches during his Opening Day start, Cleveland manager Terry Francona said he may limit his starters to 65 pitches the first two weeks (and Max Scherzer has already thrown 90 pitches in a spring training outing).
We can compare 2021 to 2020, when rosters were expanded to 28 for COVID-19 (and a universal DH was used) to see how many more pitching changes we may see in April:
2021: 3.43 relievers per game
2020: 3.43 relievers per game
Hmm … surprisingly, no difference, although, because there were more seven-inning games due to doubleheaders in 2020, the average game in 2020 was a little shorter. Still, if managers follow the Francona plan, they’re going to need deeper bullpens. That could help the following teams:
- Braves: They added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to a pen that was lights out in October.
- Giants: They led the majors in bullpen ERA and add Camilo Doval and Kervin Castro for the entire season, both of whom looked good in their September call-up.
- Rays: No team used its pen more last season than the Rays, and the extra relievers will allow them to ease their young starters into the season.
- White Sox: They signed Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly to go with Liam Hendricks, Craig Kimbrel, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet.
- Mariners: Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider will have to dominate like they surprisingly did in 2021, but they have Ken Giles and hard-throwing Andres Munoz coming off Tommy John surgery for more depth.
Universal designated hitter
After the temporary use of the universal DH in 2020, it’s back for good in 2022. Bradford Doolittle has the complete breakdown and analysis here, but here’s the most important statistic to know: NL pitchers hit .110 in 2021.
One thing that always surprises me is the range of production AL teams have received from their DHs. As Brad pointed out, only four to five teams per year use a regular DH, as teams often opt to rotate players through the spot — a strategy that can backfire if you’re already lacking offensive depth. For example, Angels DHs (mostly Ohtani) created an estimated 117 runs in 2021 while Tigers DHs created just 42, a ridiculous difference of 75 runs.
So it’s of underrated importance to get numbers from your DH. The National League teams who should most benefit from the new rule:
- Phillies. They signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as free agents and they should end up splitting time between left field and DH, with Bryce Harper also get some rest days from the field.
- Dodgers. Freddie Freeman pushes Max Muncy to a regular DH role, although expect to see a lot of Justin Turner and even a little Mookie Betts to help keep him healthy.
- Nationals. Nelson Cruz brings his big stick to the NL.
- Giants: It won’t be one guy, but they signed Joc Pederson and have multiple mix-and-match options to fit in here who should combine for good numbers.
The Shohei Ohtani rule
How many players have rules named after them? There’s the Hal McRae rule (can’t maul infielders on takeout plays at second base like Earl Campbell running through a cornerback), the Buster Posey rule (home-plate collisions) and the Chase Utley rule (must be able to touch the bag on slides into second base), among others. Those rule changes followed specific incidents involving their namesake players, but what makes the new Ohtani rule different is it is specifically designed for him.
Previously, when Ohtani was the starting pitcher and also penciled in as a hitter it meant the Angels were foregoing the designated hitter in the lineup. When Ohtani was removed as a pitcher, he was out of the game. Now when he starts on the mound, he can essentially serve as the DH for himself — and stay in the game as a hitter even when removed as a pitcher.
It’s a small advantage for the Angels and will certainly make Maddon’s life a little easier. Last season, when starting as the DH, Ohtani averaged 4.44 plate appearances per game. In the 20 games that he both pitched and hit, he averaged 3.45 plate appearances (including five games that he moved to right field to get an extra at-bat). So that’s an average of one extra plate appearance per game; he made 23 starts last season, so we’re looking at 20 to 25 extra plate appearances over the season if he has that same workload. Maybe one of those extra at-bats wins a game for the Angels.
Limits on player options
One of the worst aspects of modern baseball is the incessant player movement, especially on the back end of pitching staffs with players being shuttled back and forth to the minors when a fresh arm is needed. Instead of unlimited options, a player can now be sent down a maximum of five times in a season (optional assignments prior to May 2 will not count towards the five-option maximum). This may seem like a small provision, but don’t tell that to those players who spend a season going up and down between the majors and Triple-A.
Rays reliever Louis Head was optioned to the minors 12 separate times in 2021 — and then traded to the Marlins in the offseason. Check out one month of his transactions file:
April 28: Sent to minors
April 29: Called up from minors
April 29: Sent to minors
April 30: Called up minors
April 30: Sent to minors
May 9: Called up from minors
May 13: Sent to minors
May 19: Called up from minors
May 20: Sent to minors
Head was the season leader in this category, but research from Michael Bonzagni of ESPN Stats & Information found 34 different players sent down to the minors at least six times by a single team in 2021 (not including rehab assignments). The Rays had two other pitchers (Chris Mazza and Ryan Sherriff) with at least six options, so they will be one of the teams most affected by the new rule. Roster manipulation will still be a thing, but now teams have to be a little more careful or risk losing a player.
Let the kids play
Service time manipulation was another key issue in the CBA, with the union hoping to find a solution to end the tactic of keeping rookies in the minors at the start of the season to give teams an extra season of control down the road before they are eligible for free agency. The new rules provide incentives for teams to put their top prospects on Opening Day rosters through a directive called Prospect Promotion Incentive.
In short, teams can receive draft pick compensation after the first round of the regular draft or a potential international draft if an eligible rookie begins the season on the major league roster, receives a full year of service time and also receives sufficient awards consideration at season’s end. According to the Associated Press:
A team is eligible for Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft picks if a rookie-eligible player with 60 days or fewer of major league service who is included on a preseason top 100 prospect list by two or more of Baseball America, ESPN.com or MLB.com is promoted and finishes high in award voting in any year before he is eligible for arbitration. The team would get an amateur draft pick for a Rookie of the Year or a top three in MVP or Cy Young, and an international selection if second or third in Rookie of the Year, or fourth or fifth in Cy Young. A team can gain at most one PPI pick in the amateur draft and three total PPI picks for any individual prospect in his career.
So the incentives are cumulative, which is a pretty neat idea. We can call this the Kris Bryant rule; he won Rookie of the Year and then the MVP award in his second season after the Cubs held him back for 10 days in 2015. Some rookies we might see on Opening Day rosters who otherwise might have started in the minors:
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: After cracking 33 home runs in the minors and hitting well in spring training, he looks like a lock to begin the season at third base.
- Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: He hasn’t played above Double-A, so a little time at Triple-A would be understandable, but he’s a better center fielder than Jarred Kelenic and the Mariners need his bat.
- Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, Tigers: They’ve already performed at Triple-A, there’s nobody blocking them, the Tigers are trying to win now and both have an obvious Bryant-like ability to win Rookie of the Year honors.
- Hunter Greene, Reds: Surprise, surprise, the Reds have already announced Greene will make their opening rotation and debut April 10. The second overall pick in 2017, Greene had a 4.13 ERA in 14 starts in Triple-A, but the Reds are banking on his triple-digit fastball.
- Reid Detmers, Angels: He made five starts last season in the majors and struggled (7.40 ERA). That might normally be an excuse for more “development,” but the Angels’ desire to use a six-man rotation — and maybe the incentive program — means he should start on the big league roster.
- Oneil Cruz, Pirates: He’s Kiley McDaniel’s No. 13 prospect, Pirates shortstops hit .227 with a .583 OPS last season, so of course … oh, who are we kidding? The Pirates already sent Cruz down for more “development.”
Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman would have fit here as well, but a triceps injury will delay the start of his season and necessitate time in the minors to get ready once he’s healthy.
Don’t boo the messenger
OK, so we’re not getting robot umpires just yet (although Major League Baseball is expanding its automated strike zone experiment to the Triple-A level), but there is one small positive change to the replay system: Umpires will make in-park announcements during the replay review process. Just don’t ask them to explain the infield fly rule in 30 seconds or less. And, please, can we set a time limit of one minute and knock off the “Did the runner lose contact with the base for a nanosecond, visible only after watching the replay six times in super-slow motion?” reviews while we’re at it.
Humidors
According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic, all 30 teams will be required to use a humidor to store baseballs, where the climate-controlled chambers ensure balls will be stored at a consistent humidity and temperature until put into a game. Humidors have been used at nine parks, most notably in Colorado (used since 2002 and stored at 70 degrees and 50% humidity) and Arizona (since 2018), to help suppress offense in those two parks. Coors Field remains the best run-scoring environment in the majors, but nowhere near as extreme as it was pre-humidor. Chase Field had a park factor of 107 in 2016 and 113 in 2017 (meaning it increased run scoring 7% and 13%), but had a more neutral park factor of 99 in 2021.
A humidor can also add offense to places with high humidity by drying out the balls (drier baseballs go further off the bat). This could add a little more offense in places like Miami and Tampa (even though the Rays play indoors). The Marlins’ LoanDepot Park and the Rays’ Tropicana Field have historically been good pitcher’s parks.
Get a grip
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MLB’s crackdown on pitchers applying sticky stuff to the ball will continue, apparently with a little more added effort. A recent memo from on-field operations VP Michael Hill informed teams that the umpire checks will be more rigorous in 2022 than last season, including checking pitchers’ hands as opposed to focusing just on gloves, caps and belt buckles. Umpires will be instructed to look for “any unusual looking foreign substances, including suspicious clumps or discoloration” on hands and fingers, according to the memo. We’ve already seen umpires conducting these new more thorough checks in spring training.
The crackdown last season was announced in early June and checks officially started on June 21. Spin rates initially did drop, but eventually picked up again and major league officials were concerned that players had found ways to navigate around the inspections. Only two pitchers, however, were suspended after the crackdown.
Average spin rates on four-seam fastballs in 2021:
April: 2,309 rpms
May: 2,321
June: 2,256
July: 2,236
August: 2,242
September: 2,261
Those average spin rates post-crackdown were the lowest since 2015. Average spin rates on sliders also decreased:
April: 2,454 rpms
May: 2,467
June: 2,413
July: 2,396
August: 2,382
September: 2,385
(Pitchers are so hyperfocused on spin rates because strikeouts and thus batting average allowed are strongly correlated to higher spin rates.)
Overall, the leaguewide strikeout rate dropped from 23.9% through June 20 to 22.6% the rest of the season while the overall batting average increased from .239 to .248.
One key pitcher to watch: the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole. He was the Cy Young runner-up, but 2021 was a tale of two seasons. He had a 1.78 ERA through the end of May and then a 4.15 ERA after the grip crackdown was announced. Cole’s spin rate on his fastball averaged 2,560 rpms through May and dropped to 2,368 rpms over his next 10 starts, when he had a 4.68 ERA. After missing two weeks with COVID, he was better down the stretch with a 3.53 ERA as his fastball rpms bumped back up to 2,422.
When asked last year if he had ever used the sticky paste known as Spider Tack, Cole infamously answered, “I don’t [long pause] … I don’t know … I don’t quite know how to answer that, to be honest.” A former Angels clubhouse attendant also named Cole as one of the pitchers he had supplied ball-doctoring substances to, with a 2019 text message from Cole as evidence.
After his Sunday spring training start, Cole said the new crackdown shouldn’t affect him. “It’s just touching your hand now,” he said. “It doesn’t change anything for what I do.”
Competitive balance tax jumps from $210M to $230M
More commonly known as the luxury tax, this was one of the most combative elements of the CBA discussion, with the players finally extracting an increase. What does it mean? Teams have often used the tax as a de facto salary cap. Only the Dodgers and Padres went over in 2021, while the Phillies, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Astros all finished within $5 million of the $210 million threshold.
What does this mean for 2022? Well, teams have committed more than $3.2 billion in free agency, easily topping the previous record of $2.4 billion in 2016. Estimates from Cot’s Contracts already place the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies over the $230 million mark, so the threshold hasn’t worked as a cap to the extent it did in 2021. The only other teams over $200 million are the Padres ($220.1 million), White Sox ($210.6 million) and Angels ($201.6 million), so that $230 million level may not come into play much in 2022.
The draft lottery
A new draft lottery for the top six picks won’t affect the 2022 draft order — the Orioles will pick first for the second time in four years — and probably won’t have much influence on how the 2022 season plays out. It’s not like the Orioles or Pirates came out of the lockout and suddenly decided they needed to add players. All 18 non-playoff teams, however, will have a chance at the first pick in 2023, with the worst team having 16.5% odds and the 18th-worst team just 0.23%.
The bigger effects are long term. Teams that receive revenue sharing cannot receive a top-six lottery pick more than two years in a row, while the teams that pay into revenue sharing cannot receive a top-six pick more than one year in a row. The hope is this will create a little negative pressure on purposely fielding noncompetitive teams for several years in a row, like the Cubs and Astros did in their rebuilds or like the Orioles and Pirates are doing right now. The Orioles, in fact, will be picking in the top five for the fourth consecutive season in the 2022 draft. The Tigers picked first, fifth, first and third from 2018 to 2021. Bad teams will no longer be rewarded year after year for being bad.
Jazz Chisholm’s gloves
Last season, customized cleats became the go-to fashion accessory for many players, and nobody was as creative as Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm. His footwear included homages to Grand Theft Auto Vice City, Derek Jeter, Oreos, his favorite anime character and the Michael Jordan “flu game.” He backed up his colorful cleats (and hair) with exciting potential on the field, hitting .248 with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases as a rookie.
Now the Bahamas native is taking his flair to his gloves. While team-colored or accented gloves have been popular for years, Chisholm is taking his designs to the next level with his “ice cream gloves.” During spring training he has been using a glove that looks like a waffle cone dripping with strawberry topping and covered in sprinkles. He’ll also unveil a cookies-and-cream glove — with perhaps others to come during the season. Since baseball is a copycat sport, look for more designer gloves throughout the season.
Just don’t call them advertising decals
Quietly buried in the new CBA was the mucky little gem that uniform patches and helmet decals will be allowed. And by patches and decals, we mean ads. SportsBusiness.com’s Eric Fisher reports that while we won’t see the jersey ads this year, we are likely to see the helmet decals in October. “Helmet advertising is being reserved by the league for national-level deals,” Fisher writes. Can’t wait to see that crypto exchange or mortgage lender or human resources management services ad blotting our screen in the postseason. OK, the NBA went this route a few years ago and the league has survived just fine, but there is something sacred about a Yankees or a Dodgers or a Cardinals uniform — even the helmet — and seeing them sullied with an advertisement will be a sad day for baseball purists.
Finally … meet the Cleveland Guardians
The color scheme remains the same. The blue caps with red bill at home and the all-blue caps on the road are unchanged. The script on the jersey front looks familiar. And the -ians in Guardians means the new nickname sounds a lot like the old one. It’s a new era in Cleveland as the franchise becomes the first to change its nickname since the Tampa Bay Devil Rays became the Rays in 2008. And what happened to the Rays that season? They went to the World Series.
The only other team with significant changes to its uniforms is the Royals, and those changes are minor. The biggest difference is the font on their road jerseys is going from a script “Kansas City” to a solid blue block lettering.
The other uniform highlight for 2022 will be the next wave of the City Connect uniforms. The Nationals unveiled their look earlier this week, a tribute to the cherry trees that bloom across the city in early spring. The Nationals will debut the uniforms on April 9 and are also scheduled to wear them April 10 and April 23. The six other new City Connect franchises will be the Rockies, Astros, Royals, Angels, Brewers and Padres while the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, Marlins and Giants will continue to utilize their City Connect jerseys unveiled last season.
I’m pumped (OK, except for the ghost runner). Let’s get this thing going.
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