Lowe’s 10 things: a simmering Sixers sophomore, ugliness in Houston and Stephen Curry-induced panic

It’s Friday, which means there are 10 more things from across the NBA that I like — and dislike. This week, we feature an underappreciated element of Stephen Curry’s extraordinary game, a thrilling Sixers sophomore, a turnover mess in Houston and dangerous developments from Donovan Mitchell.

1. The magic of Stephen Curry

So, here’s a stat: Luka Doncic runs 75 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, most in the NBA, per Second Spectrum. Trae Young and Chris Paul are in the mid-60s. A pile of guys, from Cole Anthony to Donovan Mitchell, check in at around 50.

Way down the list, right behind Josh Giddey and Jalen Brunson, comes the unprecedented and unsolvable Stephen Curry: about 30 per 100 possessions, almost identical to his rate in the Golden State Warriors‘ 73-win season. That number has been the source of on-again, off-again consternation among a segment of Warriors fans who argued Steve Kerr suppressed Curry’s greatness in pursuit of “strength in numbers” dogma.

That was a semiworthy discussion at times — when the Warriors were wounded, or facing an opponent in tune with their motion offense. Curry even hinted at wanting to run more pick-and-rolls.

But the point of a pick-and-roll is for one player to draw two defenders. Curry does that without the ball — every time he cuts, runs the wing in transition, or scrambles around a teammate’s pindown. The panic his every move sews is borderline comical. Apex Curry terror: when opponents concede a dunk in transition because two or three defenders swarm Curry — who does not have the ball, and is not close to it — around the 3-point arc.

You can get caught up in playcalling semantics, but all those actions have the same result: multiple defenders surrounding Curry.

The difference, perhaps, is that Curry not starting with the ball might result in him taking fewer shots. But a lot of those non-Curry shots are dunks and layups Curry creates with his roving gravity. The underdiscussed ingredient in the Warriors’ dynastic sauce has been their generating tons of shots at the rim — including the seventh-most this season, per Cleaning The Glass.

Also, Curry is eating plenty: a top-10 usage rate, and 20 shots per game — including 13.5 3-point attempts, on pace for the all-time record.

Curry is a unique player who enables a unique style. Teams accustomed to typical NBA offenses get shell-shocked in the regular-season trying to defend it. Normal rules of spacing don’t apply to it. Golden State thrives with two and even three non-shooters because the greatest shooter ever warps the shape of entire defenses. It helps that two of those non-shooters — Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala — are among the smartest players ever; they need little time and space to advance the offense.

Those non-shooters move in concert with Curry. Stationary non-shooters can suffocate an offense. Their defenders rove without worrying about losing track of them.

Defenders can’t do that against the Warriors.

Their style inoculates them from the officiating changes; they are not dependent on one play type, or one star flinging himself into traffic.

The Warriors are not clear-cut championship favorites. They will have a ton of competition at the top, especially if one or both of Jamal Murray and Kawhi Leonard return to 80% of their peak form.

But the Warriors are very much back, and there is nothing in basketball like them.

 

2. Donovan Mitchell‘s patient, varied playmaking

Mitchell was an under-the-radar Most Improved Player candidate last season, and his passing on the pick-and-roll this season is getting more careful and creative.

It doesn’t show up much in assist numbers, but you know it when you see it:

Mitchell is not a natural lob passer, one reason his two-man game with Rudy Gobert has never flowed as easily as Gobert’s partnerships with Joe Ingles and Mike Conley. But Mitchell has been tossing these long-distance lobs more often.

He is using more change-of-pace dribbles and ball fakes to manipulate defenses — and unlock interior dimes:

(Utah has outscored opponents by 13 points per 100 possessions with Hassan Whiteside on the floor.)

When teams blitz him — as the Toronto Raptors did Thursday — Mitchell gets off the ball early, trusting his teammates to make the right play.

Mitchell is running almost 60 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, well above his previous career high, but his efficiency has not quaked, per Second Spectrum. His assist rate is up, and he rarely turns the ball over.

Utah has scored 117.6 points per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor, and 104.5 when he sits.

I’m not interested in the “who is more important, Mitchell or Gobert?” debate, but it’s hard to imagine Utah scoring enough against postseason defenses without Mitchell. He is reaching the point where there is no defense for him beyond hoping he is cold from deep.

3. The San Antonio Spurs without Dejounte Murray

I hear talk about what Murray can’t do — how his shaky long-range jumper will prevent him from being either the No. 1 ball handler or an effective spot-up guy for an elite offense. Maybe. Probably true. But you appreciate Murray when he sits, because the Spurs can’t score worth a damn without him.

San Antonio is averaging about 106.7 points per 100 possessions with Murray, and 96.4 when he rests — almost two points below the Houston Rockets‘ league-worst offense.

That gap is somewhat about the lack of creators behind him. Derrick White is a nice player, but he can’t handle anything like No. 1 option duty. He is down to 30% from deep; defenders duck screens against him, and wall off the paint. Even when they chase White over picks, he is tentative — pulling up early for floaters or harmless swing passes. His free throw rate has cratered.

Defenses don’t fear anyone else. They skirt picks, switch everything, and wait for the Spurs to hoist long 2s. There is a lot of Thaddeus Young scanning for cutters who aren’t open. Devin Vassell will be really good, but he is scratching the surface as a ball-handler. I don’t even know what Lonnie Walker IV is supposed to be anymore.

Murray doesn’t get to the line much, either, but his speed — his aggression and ability to get wherever he wants — pops amid an otherwise vanilla roster. His steals and grab-and-go rebounds get them out in transition.

He is hitting 47% on long 2s after draining 46% over the past two seasons. That’s solid.

I’m not giving up on the 3-pointer, either; Murray is shooting 31% on a career-high 3.9 attempts — and 35% on catch-and-shoot 3s. He just turned 25.

The 4-11 Spurs are minus-38 overall, but plus-8 with Murray on the floor. Don’t sleep on his 18-8-8 line (with All-NBA-level defense) just because the team is losing.

4. Tyrese Maxey, quick-shootin’

I apologize for doubting Maxey’s readiness to assume a larger role during the Ben Simmons fiasco. Maxey has been extraordinary — he just turned 21! — keeping the Sixers’ offense humming despite the absence of just about every other key teammate.

He is averaging 18 points on 52% shooting — 55% on 2s, and a very encouraging 43% on 3s. Maxey knifes into the paint at will; nearly 40% of his shots have come at the basket, per Cleaning The Glass — a monster number for a 6-foot-2 guard.

Maxey has finished a LeBron James-esque 69% of those shots. His trademark: a quick-release layup he flicks almost before he even jumps. That baby hits the glass by the time shot-blockers know what the hell is going on:

It’s as if the speed of Maxey’s feet radiates up his body and pushes these layups off his fingertips.

Maxey pulls the same trick with midrangers, releasing them on the way up:

Maxey drives to score. About 75% of Maxey’s drives have ended with him shooting — third highest among 130 guys with at least 50 drives, per Second Spectrum.

That’s fine. The Sixers don’t need Maxey to replace Simmons’ playmaking; they are doing that as a collective, and Maxey is contributing about 4.5 assists. He will find his way as a distributor with more reps. The upside of Maxey’s shoot-first approach: a miniscule turnover rate.

Maxey is most lethal catching the ball after someone else has bent the defense. He attacks diagonal gaps with the decisiveness of a veteran. He leans into his drives, like an Olympic sprinter crouched in starting position before the gun goes off:

The Sixers scored at a top-five rate with Maxey on the floor even during their recent five-game losing streak — despite every other starter missing games. (Joel Embiid has missed all of them.) Maxey averaged 24 points on 52% shooting over that stretch, with just four turnovers.

For the season, Philly has scored 114 points per 100 possessions when Maxey plays without Embiid — a hair above Utah’s No. 1-ranked overall offense.

5. The Houston Rockets turnover machine

As was the case with Ralph Wiggum’s broken heart, you can pinpoint the exact moment watching the teenage Rockets transitioned from intriguing to depressing:

The Phoenix Suns stole three routine passes from Christian Wood in this game. The Rockets do not need veterans compounding the turnover issues endemic to ultra-young rosters.

Houston has the league’s worst turnover rate by a laughable margin. They are on pace for the highest rate of any team since 2005-06, per Basketball-Reference. Forcing these guys to play against cat burglars such as Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges was cruel — like trotting out “The Southern Dandy” Homer Simpson, “Opponent” stitched into the back of his robe, to fight Drederick Tatum.

You expect Jalen GreenKevin Porter Jr., and Alperen Sengun to cough it up. (Porter has been rough.) They are young and ambitious. I might start calling Sengun “NBA Icarus,” because, my god, does that dude fly close to the sun with the stuff he tries. And a lot of his spinning, falling, coast-to-coast no-look passing works!

Green gets caught deep in the paint without a plan. Porter’s passes spray everywhere. Even role players such as Danuel House Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate (I’m still a big fan!) get carried away. And this isn’t the product of overpassing; Houston ranks toward the bottom in assists and passes.

The Rockets are 1-14, with their one win a blowout over the Oklahoma City Thunder. (I thought the Thunder might be historically bad, and boy, do I appear to have been wrong. Also: DORT!!!!!!!!)

If you see Stephen Silas, buy him a drink.

6. Jarrett Allen, getting nasty

The Cleveland Cavaliers‘ 9-5 start was one of the season’s biggest surprises. They’ve played a brutal schedule, and have missed Lauri MarkkanenCollin SextonIsaac OkoroKevin Love, and now Evan Mobley for extended periods.

Markkanen has shot horribly. Sexton was off to an uneven start. It took Darius Garland time to warm up. How have they managed this?

Most of the focus has been on Mobley, playing such precocious two-way ball that I’m grinning like an idiot just typing this. But these Cavs have a ton of unsung heroes.

Ricky Rubio stabilizes them and allows their young guards to tilt more toward instinctual scoring. You barely notice Dean Wade — as anonymous an NBA player as could exist — starting for Markkanen, and I mean that as a compliment. Cedi Osman has hit 41% from deep, and drilled at least four treys in five recent games — including frisky step-back jumpers and pull-ups. He has filled minutes at both forward positions.

Give Allen his due. He is averaging 14 points and 11 boards on 69% shooting, and doing more than dunking. Allen has flashed a mean streak in the post, and not just against mismatches:

You can’t force feed Allen, but he is a threat when a pick-and-roll organically ends with him cementing deep position. He is bulldozing guys, and his awkward hooks are finding pay dirt.

Allen is averaging about 3.5 post touches per 100 possessions after recording 25 combined in his first three seasons, per Second Spectrum. The Cavs have scored 1.275 points when Allen shoots from the block, or passes to a teammate who fires — a mark that would have ranked second last season (behind only Kevin Durant) among 79 players with at least 50 post touches.

On defense, Allen relishes airborne combat. He does not care if you dunk on his head; he is meeting you at the summit next time. Opponents have hit just 52.9% of shots at the rim with Allen nearby, one of the stingiest marks among rotation bigs.

He is nimbler smothering pick-and-rolls, with a knack for deflecting lobs.

You don’t hear much complaining about Allen’s contract these days, huh?

7. Frank McGee, NBA center

Team Rock Solid has won 10 straight, mostly without their center rotation from last season — Deandre Ayton and Dario Saric.

JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky spent much of their pre-Phoenix careers as something between punch lines and cautionary tales. McGee was a one-man blooper reel for the dysfunctional Washington Wizards. He finally kicked those foibles and became a productive part-time starter on back-to-back Golden State championship teams.

McGee is still doing all the “vertical athlete” stuff, including obliterating the offensive glass, but there’s a refined subtlety to his game. He is a nifty passer who enjoys feeding cutters. He hunts opportunities to seal deep position, and the Suns perimeter guys look for McGee there. That is the sign of a healthy locker room culture: They want to reward McGee for his defense and rebounding.

McGee has developed a soft push shot; he has hit a career-best 55% on floaters this season. He talks and rotates on defense, toggling assignments without missing a beat. It remains baffling that last season’s Denver Nuggets benched him.

Kaminsky was almost McGee’s polar opposite — the ground-bound college star whose game didn’t translate to the NBA. He thrived as McGee’s temporary backup, culminating in a 31-point explosion against the Portland Trail Blazers last week.

Kaminsky is shooting fewer 3s, and hunting tin. He is rolling to the rim — as opposed to popping for jumpers — on about 60% of ball screens, per Second Spectrum; that portion hovered around 35% or 40% in prior seasons. Given the attention Chris Paul and Devin Booker draw — and the shooting around him — it makes sense for Kaminsky to slice inside.

Versions of Phoenix’s starting five with Kaminsky and McGee in Ayton’s place have the fourth- and fifth-best net ratings among all lineups with at least 50 minutes played, per NBA.com.

This would seem bad for Ayton’s leverage in coming contract talks. It probably is. But remember: Paul won’t play at this level forever, and the Suns will then need more scoring around Booker. McGee and Kaminsky can’t fill that void. I remain skeptical of Kaminsky as an every-game postseason player. Ayton roared upon his return this week.

The Suns have had the league’s easiest schedule, but don’t expect much slippage. These guys know who they are, and had the best record against .500-plus teams last season.

8. The Denver Nuggets‘ bench showing signs of life

Baby steps, people.

In nine November games, the Nuggets are minus-16 with Nikola Jokic on the bench — despite Michael Porter Jr. and Will Barton missing time, robbing Denver of the starters who typically buoy bench-heavy units.

Minus-16 in nine games is actually pretty good considering that in its first half-dozen games, Denver was almost better off taking shot clock violations when Jokic sat. (Jokic MVP repeat buzz is quiet considering he is averaging 26 points, 14 boards, and 6.5 assists on 59% shooting — and No. 1 in almost every advanced stat.)

JaMychal Green is finding his footing. Bones Hyland is as delightful as advertised. He toys with big men on switches. He dusts them, or clears space for step-back bombs; he is 9-of-22 on pull-up 3s. He jolts the offense with swing passes and crisp post entries. He is longer than you expect on defense.

P.J. Dozier is the gap-filler every team needs. He is rangy enough to defend all three perimeter positions, and spot time at power forward. Dozier is up to 33% from deep. He’ll surprise you by squeezing something from nothing in late-clock isolations, and he is a sneaky good passer:

Facundo Campazzo plays hard and makes good decisions — what you want from a break-in-case-of-emergency reserve.

9. The physicality of the Detroit Pistons‘ young guards

It’s hard to watch the Pistons. They are shooting 29.5% on 3s! Only one team since 2003 — the 7-59 Charlotte Creamsicles of 2011-12 — has hit fewer than 30%. Detroit is in a three-legged race with the Thunder and Rockets for “worst offense since the early Process Sixers.” The Orlando Magic (27th in offense) won’t even acknowledge these guys in the hallway.

But you see glimpses of what Detroit envisioned teaming Killian Hayes (6-foot-5), Saddiq Bey (6-foot-7) and Cade Cunningham (6-foot-8). The actualized version of that trio is huge — switchy on defense, with three playmakers, at least one of whom should have a size mismatch at all times.

Bey has more than doubled his pick-and-roll volume, per Second Spectrum. Those plays haven’t produced much, but that’s not surprising given the surrounding roster. It’s important for Bey to stretch himself, and he does not look out of his depth.

He’s mean as hell:

I don’t even care that Bey misses four shots in four seconds. That’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, more god than mortal, and Bey just plows right into him!

That’s not unusual:

Bey goes through Chimezie Metu like he’s not even there. Bey has a nice back-to-the-basket game for smushing little guys.

Cunningham’s shot has been iffy, but he already is a plus defender because of his size. He navigates picks, and bothers shots from behind.

He is a stout rebounder.

I’m starting to worry about Hayes. He has only played 39 games, but he has yet to show any consistent A-level skill. Patience is still appropriate.

10. “LET IT GO!”

I’ve written about how tightrope rebounds — with no opposing player nearby — give me the shakes. The basketball gods frown upon such stat chasing, and occasionally punish offenders by tipping them out of bounds or altering the spin on the ball so that it slips from their hands.

The inverse of such overeager grasping is a good, old-fashioned barricading of enemy players as the ball trickles out:

That’s textbook barricading! Buddy Hield receives no statistical credit here, but the basketball gods noticed. When one Hield trey bounces off the top of the backboard and in, you’ll know why.

And, yes, it is hilarious when the barricader miscalculates — when he doesn’t realize his team touched the ball last. It’s the thought that counts.

Credit: Source link